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裕龙石化三线检修,检修损失量增加
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. No strategy for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - Yulong Petrochemical's three - line maintenance and the upcoming maintenance season for upstream petrochemical plants have led to an increase in maintenance losses, easing market supply pressure and resulting in a slight reduction in production inventory. The anti - involution policy on the macro level has some positive impact, with an expected improvement in the medium - to - long - term supply side, but the short - term fundamentals of polyolefins have not significantly improved. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, leading to lower international oil and propane prices. The production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the agricultural film industry's starting rate rising from the bottom, the plastic braiding industry's starting rate decreasing, and other downstream industries maintaining their starting rates, mainly for rigid - demand procurement [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L main contract closed at 7278 yuan/ton (+33), PP main contract closed at 7078 yuan/ton (+33). LL North China spot was 7180 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7270 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 7120 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 98 yuan/ton (-33), LL East China basis was - 8 yuan/ton (-33), PP East China basis was 42 yuan/ton (-33) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 79.5% (+3.0%), PP operating rate was 77.4% (-1.9%). PE oil - based production profit was 94.8 yuan/ton (-71.4), PP oil - based production profit was - 295.2 yuan/ton (-71.4), PDH - made PP production profit was 250.4 yuan/ton (-49.8) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 109.6 yuan/ton (-10.0), PP import profit was - 634.8 yuan/ton (-10.3), PP export profit was 29.5 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 12.1% (-0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.4% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic braiding operating rate was 42.2% (-1.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.3% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The text mentions that production inventory has a slight reduction, but no specific inventory data is provided [2]