Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For LLDPE, crude oil risks are intensifying, and upstream supply may contract. PE cost is rising due to geopolitical tensions affecting logistics and increasing the price of naphtha. There is an expected improvement in post - holiday demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover after the Lantern Festival. The fundamental contradictions are currently not significant, but attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday and the post - holiday destocking rate [1][2] - For PP, C3 raw materials may have pulses, and the reduction in PDH device production continues. The cost of C3 is strongly supported due to supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game of existing supply and demand. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The previous day's closing price was 6597, with a daily decline of 1.06%, trading volume of 565011, and an increase in positions of 15671. The 05 - contract basis was - 167, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 75. Spot prices in North, East, and South China were 6430, 6500, and 6630 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend compared to the previous day [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: The previous day's closing price was 6611, with a daily decline of 0.96%, trading volume of 484965, and a decrease in positions of 16989. The 05 - contract basis was - 111, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 16. Spot prices in North, East, and South China were 6470, 6500, and 6670 yuan/ton respectively, also lower than the previous day [1] 2. Spot News - For PE, the linear production ratio remained stable. For PP, Zhejiang Petrochemical changed its production, and the drawing production ratio dropped from the holiday high to a neutral level. After the decline in futures prices, trading improved, but the loosening of upstream quotes limited the strengthening of the basis. Low - priced supplies from the Middle East and the US will arrive at ports in early March, but downstream buying is limited [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - **LLDPE**: Geopolitical tensions over the weekend affected the logistics of oil tankers, increasing the cost of PE. There is an expected improvement in post - holiday demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover after the Lantern Festival. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has achieved mass production, the number of maintenance plans in February has decreased, and some FD has switched back to standard products. The fundamental contradictions are currently not significant [2] - **PP**: C3 cost is strongly supported by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game of existing supply and demand. Downstream demand follows up with rigid orders, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. PDH devices in South China have maintenance expectations due to deep losses, and attention should be paid to their marginal changes [2] 4. Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: 1; PP trend intensity: 2 [4]

2026 年 2 月 27 日 LLDPE：原油风险待释放，自身供需格局一般 PP：C3 原料表现偏强，PDH 检修仍高 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 聚烯烃基本面数据 【现货消息】 聚烯烃：埃克森惠州检修，线性排产小幅下滑；PP 昨日浙石化转产，拉丝排产由假期高位下滑至中性 水平。下游终端复工相对较晚，盘面下跌，基差货源价格优势明显，成交尚可；非标牌号成交偏弱，报价松 动下调。中东、美国低价货源 3 月初陆续到港，但下游买盘跟进有限。 【市场状况分析】 节中原料端原油价格上行，中东地缘局势难定，乙烯单体企稳，PE 乙烯工艺利润尚可。节后地膜需求 存好转预期，包装膜行业预计元宵陆续复苏。供应端，巴斯夫湛江量产，2 月目前检修计划环比下滑，部分 FD 回切标品，春节前库存转移后基本面矛盾暂不大，关注节中累库幅度及节后去化斜率。 PP 方面 C3 受沙特供应扰动，成本支撑强，PDH 检修仍高。供应端 2605 合约前无新投产，存量供需博 弈加剧。需求端，下游新单刚需跟进，年底整体基本面支撑有限，成本端 PDH 利润维持低位，华南多套 PDH ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：原油成本支撑强，自身供需格局一般 PP：C3 原料表现偏强，PDH 检修仍高 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 聚烯烃基本面数据 | 期 货 | L2605 | | | | PP2605 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | 6777 | -0.63% | 411247 | 25621 | 6720 | -0.39% | 325747 | 7385 | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 05合约基差 | -127 | | -170 | | -130 | | -116 | | | 05-09合约价差 | -70 | | -58 | | -23 | | -21 | | | 现货价格 | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. No strategy for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - Yulong Petrochemical's three - line maintenance and the upcoming maintenance season for upstream petrochemical plants have led to an increase in maintenance losses, easing market supply pressure and resulting in a slight reduction in production inventory. The anti - involution policy on the macro level has some positive impact, with an expected improvement in the medium - to - long - term supply side, but the short - term fundamentals of polyolefins have not significantly improved. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, leading to lower international oil and propane prices. The production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the agricultural film industry's starting rate rising from the bottom, the plastic braiding industry's starting rate decreasing, and other downstream industries maintaining their starting rates, mainly for rigid - demand procurement [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L main contract closed at 7278 yuan/ton (+33), PP main contract closed at 7078 yuan/ton (+33). LL North China spot was 7180 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7270 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 7120 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 98 yuan/ton (-33), LL East China basis was - 8 yuan/ton (-33), PP East China basis was 42 yuan/ton (-33) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 79.5% (+3.0%), PP operating rate was 77.4% (-1.9%). PE oil - based production profit was 94.8 yuan/ton (-71.4), PP oil - based production profit was - 295.2 yuan/ton (-71.4), PDH - made PP production profit was 250.4 yuan/ton (-49.8) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 109.6 yuan/ton (-10.0), PP import profit was - 634.8 yuan/ton (-10.3), PP export profit was 29.5 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 12.1% (-0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.4% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic braiding operating rate was 42.2% (-1.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.3% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The text mentions that production inventory has a slight reduction, but no specific inventory data is provided [2]