Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, the start - up rate continues to decline, and raw material prices are adjusted under negative feedback. For PP, C3 raw materials fluctuate greatly, and the export scale continues. The geopolitical situation is escalating, affecting raw material prices and supply - demand relationships of polyolefins [1][2] - The cost of PE is rising due to geopolitical impacts on raw materials, and the supply - demand situation is affected by factors such as production and maintenance. For PP, C3 has strong cost support, and there are changes in supply - demand and profit situations [2] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: L2605 had a closing price of 8868 with a daily increase of 1.15%, trading volume of 907916, and a position change of 4709. PP2605 had a closing price of 9313 with a daily increase of 2.12%, trading volume of 1128102, and a position change of 13997. The 05 - contract basis for L2605 was - 368 (previous day: - 317), and for PP2605 was - 313 (previous day: - 220). The 05 - 09 contract spread for L2605 was 129 (previous day: 135), and for PP2605 was 333 (previous day: 311) [1] - **Spot Price**: In North China, the LLDPE spot price was 8500 yuan/ton (previous day: 8450), and PP was 8950 yuan/ton (previous day: 8900). In East China, LLDPE was 8550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and PP was 9000 yuan/ton (previous day: 8900). In South China, LLDPE was 8750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and PP was 9150 yuan/ton (previous day: 9050) [1] Spot News - **Start - up Rate**: The weekly start - up rate of PE was 73% (- 1%), with new maintenance at Lanzhou, Yangzi, and Satellite, and the start - up rate has dropped below 75%. The weekly start - up rate of PP was 67% and remained stable. In April, there are few incremental maintenance of PDH, but Zhejiang Petrochemical, Yulong, Jingbo, and Donghua Maoming are expected to have incremental maintenance, and the start - up rate may drop to 65% [1] - **Market Conditions**: PE grade spot prices are differentiated, with non - standard prices being relatively strong. PP weekly exports have slightly shrunk, and upstream export orders are placed cautiously [1] Market Condition Analysis - **PE**: Geopolitical factors lead to the expected strength of raw materials such as naphtha, increasing the cost of PE. After the festival, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the start - up of packaging film has increased, but cost transmission takes time. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has started mass production, and the planned maintenance and production reduction in April are increasing, the production of standard products is declining, and inventory is starting to be depleted. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical persistence and cost transmission [2] - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance remains high. Before the 2605 contract, there is no new production, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have resumed work intensively, and demand has improved month - on - month. The PDH profit remains at a low level, and multiple PDH plants in South China have not resumed operation. Under the deep - loss of PDH profit, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH plants [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, and that of PP is 1 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE has a supply contraction in cracking, and downstream shows resistance to high prices. PP faces limited supply from multiple raw materials, leading to a contraction in upstream operation [1]. - Geopolitical issues remain unresolved, causing shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, significantly affecting logistics like oil tankers. Naphtha is expected to be strong, raising PE costs. After the holiday, there is an expectation of improved demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry will gradually recover after the Lantern Festival. For the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has achieved mass - production, and the planned maintenance and production cuts are increasing in March. The production of standard products is currently stable, but there was a large inventory build - up during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the persistence of geopolitical factors and the willingness to restock during the peak season. For PP, C3 supply is affected by Saudi Arabia and Iran, providing strong cost support, and PDH maintenance remains at a high level. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream is expected to resume work intensively, and demand will improve month - on - month. The PDH profit remains at a low level, and multiple PDH units in South China are still under maintenance. With deep PDH losses, attention should be focused on the marginal changes in cracking and PDH units [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For L2605, the closing price yesterday was 8677, with a daily increase of 3.10%, trading volume of 1,283,744, and a position change of 2424. For PP2605, the closing price was 8857, with a daily increase of 2.95%, trading volume of 1,485,276, and a position change of - 4918. - **Spread Data**: The 05 - contract basis for L2605 was - 327 (compared to - 166 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 305 (compared to 271 the previous day). For PP2605, the 05 - contract basis was - 207 (compared to - 103 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 551 (compared to 535 the previous day). - **Spot Price Data**: In North China, the LLDPE spot price was 8350 yuan/ton (compared to 8250 yuan/ton the previous day), and the PP spot price was 8650 yuan/ton (compared to 8400 yuan/ton the previous day). In East China, the LLDPE spot price was 8550 yuan/ton (compared to 8400 yuan/ton the previous day), and the PP spot price was 8650 yuan/ton (compared to 8500 yuan/ton the previous day). In South China, the LLDPE spot price was 8650 yuan/ton (compared to 8400 yuan/ton the previous day), and the PP spot price was 8750 yuan/ton (compared to 8400 yuan/ton the previous day) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - For polyolefins, Daqing, Baolai HD, and Lanzhou Petrochemical's full - density production lines have stopped, causing the PE operation rate to decline to around 80%. For PP, Yulong, Zhongjing, and Yanchang Zhongmei have resumed production, leading to a slight increase in the low - level operation rate. In terms of profits, domestic derivatives generally cannot keep up with the increase in US dollar raw material prices, resulting in a significant compression of profits. Spot prices cannot keep up with the increase in futures prices, causing tight capital occupation in the middle - stream, and downstream resistance to high prices, leading to a continued weakening of the basis [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Geopolitical issues have not been alleviated, causing shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz and severely affecting logistics such as oil tankers. Naphtha is expected to be strong, raising PE costs. After the holiday, there is an expectation of improved demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry will gradually recover after the Lantern Festival. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has achieved mass - production, and the planned maintenance and production cuts are increasing in March. The production of standard products is currently stable, but there was a large inventory build - up during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the persistence of geopolitical factors and the willingness to restock during the peak season. For PP, C3 supply is affected by Saudi Arabia and Iran, providing strong cost support, and PDH maintenance remains at a high level. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream is expected to resume work intensively, and demand will improve month - on - month. The PDH profit remains at a low level, and multiple PDH units in South China are still under maintenance. With deep PDH losses, attention should be focused on the marginal changes in cracking and PDH units [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, and the trend intensity of PP is 1 [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For LLDPE, crude oil risks are intensifying, and upstream supply may contract. PE cost is rising due to geopolitical tensions affecting logistics and increasing the price of naphtha. There is an expected improvement in post - holiday demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover after the Lantern Festival. The fundamental contradictions are currently not significant, but attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday and the post - holiday destocking rate [1][2] - For PP, C3 raw materials may have pulses, and the reduction in PDH device production continues. The cost of C3 is strongly supported due to supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game of existing supply and demand. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The previous day's closing price was 6597, with a daily decline of 1.06%, trading volume of 565011, and an increase in positions of 15671. The 05 - contract basis was - 167, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 75. Spot prices in North, East, and South China were 6430, 6500, and 6630 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend compared to the previous day [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: The previous day's closing price was 6611, with a daily decline of 0.96%, trading volume of 484965, and a decrease in positions of 16989. The 05 - contract basis was - 111, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 16. Spot prices in North, East, and South China were 6470, 6500, and 6670 yuan/ton respectively, also lower than the previous day [1] 2. Spot News - For PE, the linear production ratio remained stable. For PP, Zhejiang Petrochemical changed its production, and the drawing production ratio dropped from the holiday high to a neutral level. After the decline in futures prices, trading improved, but the loosening of upstream quotes limited the strengthening of the basis. Low - priced supplies from the Middle East and the US will arrive at ports in early March, but downstream buying is limited [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - **LLDPE**: Geopolitical tensions over the weekend affected the logistics of oil tankers, increasing the cost of PE. There is an expected improvement in post - holiday demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover after the Lantern Festival. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has achieved mass production, the number of maintenance plans in February has decreased, and some FD has switched back to standard products. The fundamental contradictions are currently not significant [2] - **PP**: C3 cost is strongly supported by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game of existing supply and demand. Downstream demand follows up with rigid orders, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. PDH devices in South China have maintenance expectations due to deep losses, and attention should be paid to their marginal changes [2] 4. Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: 1; PP trend intensity: 2 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LLDPE has risks from crude oil yet to be released, and its supply - demand pattern is average; PP's C3 raw material is strong, and PDH maintenance is still high [1]. - For LLDPE, after - festival demand for mulching films is expected to improve, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover around the Lantern Festival. The supply - side has new production from BASF Zhanjiang, and the maintenance plan in February has decreased. The fundamental contradiction is not significant after inventory transfer before the Spring Festival [2]. - For PP, C3 is affected by Saudi supply disruptions with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. The downstream new orders follow up based on rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Focus on the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 was 6668, with a daily decline of 1.61%, the trading volume was 450673, and the position changed by 42552. The closing price of PP2605 was 6675, with a daily decline of 0.67%, the trading volume was 445413, and the position changed by 27684 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 05 - contract basis of L2605 was - 168 (previous day: - 167), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 74 (previous day: - 70). The 05 - contract basis of PP2605 was - 135 (previous day: - 130), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 17 (previous day: - 23) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In the north, the LLDPE spot price was 6500 yuan/ton (previous day: 6610), and the PP spot price was 6520 yuan/ton (previous day: 6560). In the east, the LLDPE spot price was 6600 yuan/ton (previous day: 6680), and the PP spot price was 6540 yuan/ton (previous day: 6590). In the south, the LLDPE spot price was 6700 yuan/ton (previous day: 6800), and the PP spot price was 6700 yuan/ton (previous day: 6730) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - For polyolefins, Exxon Huizhou had maintenance, and the linear production scheduling decreased slightly. For PP, Zhejiang Petrochemical switched production yesterday, and the drawstring production scheduling dropped from the holiday high to a neutral level [1]. - Downstream terminals resumed work relatively late. With the decline of the futures price, the basis - priced goods had obvious price advantages and the transactions were acceptable. The transactions of non - standard grades were weak, and the quotes were loosened and adjusted downwards [1]. - Low - priced goods from the Middle East and the United States will arrive at ports in early March, but the downstream buying follow - up is limited [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - For LLDPE, the crude oil price increased during the festival, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, the ethylene monomer is stable, and the profit of the PE ethylene process is acceptable. The supply - side has new production from BASF Zhanjiang, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. - For PP, C3 is affected by Saudi supply disruptions with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. The downstream new orders follow up based on rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Focus on the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1, and the trend intensity of PP is 0 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - LLDPE has strong cost support from crude oil, and its supply - demand pattern is average; PP has strong C3 raw material performance, and PDH maintenance remains high [1][2] - For LLDPE, after - holiday demand for mulch film is expected to improve, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover around the Lantern Festival. For PP, the cost support is strong, but the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE Futures (L2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 6777, with a daily decline of 0.63%. The trading volume was 411247, and the position change was 25621. The 05 - contract basis was - 127, and the 05 - 09 - contract spread was - 70 [1] - **PP Futures (PP2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 6720, with a daily decline of 0.39%. The trading volume was 325747, and the position change was 7385. The 05 - contract basis was - 130, and the 05 - 09 - contract spread was - 23 [1] - **Spot Prices**: For LLDPE, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6650, 6680, and 6800 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6560, 6590, and 6730 yuan/ton respectively [1] Spot News - For polyolefins, Exxon Huizhou had maintenance, and the linear production scheduling decreased slightly. During the festival, the production scheduling of drawn wire was high, and today Zhejiang Petrochemical switched production, leading to a decline in drawn - wire production scheduling [1] - Downstream end - users resumed work relatively late, actual spot transactions declined, and factories were cautious about following price increases, waiting for guidance from US - dollar prices [1] Market Condition Analysis - **LLDPE**: During the festival, the price of crude oil, the raw material, increased. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, the ethylene monomer is stable, and the profit of the PE ethylene process is acceptable. The supply - side contradiction is not significant for now, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2] - **PP**: The C3 cost support is strong, and PDH maintenance remains high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract. The downstream new orders follow up with rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep - loss PDH profits [2] Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: - 1; PP trend intensity: 0 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. No strategy for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - Yulong Petrochemical's three - line maintenance and the upcoming maintenance season for upstream petrochemical plants have led to an increase in maintenance losses, easing market supply pressure and resulting in a slight reduction in production inventory. The anti - involution policy on the macro level has some positive impact, with an expected improvement in the medium - to - long - term supply side, but the short - term fundamentals of polyolefins have not significantly improved. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, leading to lower international oil and propane prices. The production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the agricultural film industry's starting rate rising from the bottom, the plastic braiding industry's starting rate decreasing, and other downstream industries maintaining their starting rates, mainly for rigid - demand procurement [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L main contract closed at 7278 yuan/ton (+33), PP main contract closed at 7078 yuan/ton (+33). LL North China spot was 7180 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7270 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 7120 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 98 yuan/ton (-33), LL East China basis was - 8 yuan/ton (-33), PP East China basis was 42 yuan/ton (-33) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 79.5% (+3.0%), PP operating rate was 77.4% (-1.9%). PE oil - based production profit was 94.8 yuan/ton (-71.4), PP oil - based production profit was - 295.2 yuan/ton (-71.4), PDH - made PP production profit was 250.4 yuan/ton (-49.8) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 109.6 yuan/ton (-10.0), PP import profit was - 634.8 yuan/ton (-10.3), PP export profit was 29.5 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 12.1% (-0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.4% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic braiding operating rate was 42.2% (-1.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.3% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The text mentions that production inventory has a slight reduction, but no specific inventory data is provided [2]