Report Information - Report Title: Import and Export Profit Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: March 22, 2026 [1] - Researchers: Yang Jiaming (F3046931, Z0015448), Chen Ziang (F03123846, Z0019914), Yang Li (F03147405, Z0022768) [2] Core Content Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil price spread between domestic and international markets is presented in a chart, showing price differences between Singapore Port and Zhoushan Port from 2021 to 2025 [4][5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil price spread between Zhoushan and Singapore is presented, covering the period from 2021 to 2025 [6][7] PTA and Ethylene Glycol - PTA price spread between domestic and international markets from 2022 to 2024 is shown in a chart [8][9] - Ethylene glycol spot price spread between domestic and international markets in 2023 and 2024 is presented [10][11] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene price spreads between South Korea and China, South Korea and the US, and global pure benzene prices are presented in charts, with different time - series data from 2022 to 2026 [12][13] PVC - PVC international market prices including different regions like India, US Gulf, Northwest Europe, and Tianjin are shown from 2010 to 2025 [17][18] - Price spread between India and China from 2022 to 2025 is presented [19][20] LLDPE - LLDPE price spreads between the US and Asia, Europe and Asia, and the Middle East and Asia are presented in charts, with different time - series data [21][23][25] PP - PP price spreads between the US and Asia, Europe and Asia, and the Middle East and Asia are presented in charts, covering different time periods from 2021 to 2026 [28][29][31] Methanol - Methanol CFR price in China from 2010 to 2025 is shown [33][34] - Methanol price spreads between the US and Asia, and Europe and Asia are presented in seasonal charts from 2022 to 2026 [35][37] Urea - Global major urea prices from 2013 to 2025 are presented [39][40] - Urea price spreads between the Middle East and China (FOB small - particle), Egypt and China (FOB large - particle) are shown in different time - series [41][43] - Urea export profit in 2026 is presented [45][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation in Iran remains turbulent, intensifying the Middle - East conflict, leading to an increase in international oil prices and strong support for chemical products. The market logic of olefins lies in concerns about raw material supply due to geopolitical factors and the expectation of supply - side contraction, which supports olefin prices. However, downstream demand shows a negative feedback, and the basis of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) has declined. The strategy suggests cautious bottom - fishing and long - hedging for LLDPE and PP [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Prices and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 8431 yuan/ton (- 65), and that of the PP main contract is 8628 yuan/ton (- 43). LL North China spot is 8300 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 8400 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot is 8550 yuan/ton (-50). LL North China basis is - 131 yuan/ton (+65), LL East China basis is - 31 yuan/ton (+115), and PP East China basis is - 78 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 82.4% (- 4.5%), and the PP operating rate is 70.1% (- 4.4%) [1]. - **Production Profits**: PE oil - based production profit is - 1064.0 yuan/ton (- 437.4), PP oil - based production profit is - 1054.0 yuan/ton (- 437.4), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 1746.2 yuan/ton (- 382.2) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 807.7 yuan/ton (- 200.0), PP import profit is - 1304.6 yuan/ton (- 200.0), and PP export profit is 107.6 US dollars/ton (+25.7) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream film operating rate is 26.8% (+8.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 43.4% (+3.1%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 40.5% (+2.9%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.3% (+1.7%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The number of domestic refineries' shutdowns, overhauls, or load - reduction devices has increased, and the expected operating rate will further decline. Imported resources are expected to be weak, and market supply is continuously tightening. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded, but due to rising raw material costs, the operating rate increase has not met expectations, and the LL basis has declined [3]. - **PP**: The supply - side reduction is more obvious. The preventive load - reduction of upstream production enterprises continues to increase, and the expected overhaul loss in March - April will continue to rise. The demand side has a gradual recovery in downstream operating rates, but due to large PP price fluctuations and downstream cost pressures, downstream procurement is cautious, and the PP basis has also declined [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously go long and hedge with LLDPE and PP. - **Inter - period**: None. - **Inter - variety**: None [3]. 3.4 Figures and Their Sources - **Figures in "Polyolefin Basis, Inter - period Structure"**: Include plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, PP East China basis, L05 - L09, and PP05 - PP09, with sources mainly from Flush and Steel Union [7][10][12]. - **Figures in "Production Profits and Operating Rates"**: Such as PE production profit (crude oil), PE capacity utilization rate, PP production profit (crude oil), PP production profit (PDH - based), polypropylene capacity utilization rate, PP weekly output, etc., sourced from Steel Union [15][18][21]. - **Figures in "Non - standard Price Differences of Polyolefins"**: HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China, sourced from Steel Union [30][33][37]. - **Figures in "Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins"**: PE East China import profit and loss, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, etc., sourced from Flush and Steel Union [39][40][49]. - **Figures in "Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins"**: Include agricultural film operating rate, packaging film operating rate, plastic weaving operating rate, BOPP film operating rate, plastic weaving production gross profit, BOPP film production gross profit, etc., sourced from Steel Union and Longzhong [60][61][72]. - **Figures in "Polyolefin Inventories"**: PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE social inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, etc., sourced from Zhuochuang and Steel Union [75][82][83].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates a weakening in pre - holiday demand. For PE, due to the decline in international oil prices, the cost - side support for plastics has weakened. With an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, the polyolefin market has corrected. For PP, the cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious, leading to a correction in both futures and spot prices [2][3]. - The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak. For PE, there is an expected increase in supply pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. For PP, the supply side lacks strong support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market is affected by cost - side and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the sustainability of the rebound is limited. The report recommends a wait - and - see approach for L/PP [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6865 yuan/ton (-13), and that of the PP main contract is 6730 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot is 6730 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (-50), and PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -135 yuan/ton (-57), LL East China basis is -65 yuan/ton (-37), and PP East China basis is -50 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.4% (+0.7%), and the PP operating rate is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 145.4 yuan/ton (+260.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -264.6 yuan/ton (+260.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -388.0 yuan/ton (+117.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 11.4 yuan/ton (-65.3), the PP import profit is -283.9 yuan/ton (+44.8), and the PP export profit is -79.8 US dollars/ton (-5.7) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 34.6% (-1.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 42.1% (-2.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.2% (+0.2%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The decline in international oil prices has led to a weakening of cost - side support. In terms of supply, there are many restarted devices, limited planned maintenance in February, and an increase in imported resources. In terms of demand, it is in the off - season, with a decline in overall downstream operating rates and weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, PDH is in a deep loss, but there is limited planned maintenance in the future, and some devices are resuming production. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, and there is a seasonal decline in demand with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [3]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for L/PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuations are strong, and the macro - and capital - side disturbances are increasing. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the sustainability of the rebound may be limited [4]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - PE: Despite a short - term rebound in the PE price driven by the sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices and cost - side disturbances, the improvement in the PE supply - demand fundamentals is limited. There is still supply pressure due to new device production and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, and the demand side remains weak as downstream industries are in the off - season. However, the short - term inventory pressure has been slightly alleviated [2] - PP: The PP price continues to rebound due to the warming market sentiment, supply reduction expectations, and cost - side support. But there are still supply - demand contradictions. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of upstream device maintenance, and the price rebound space is expected to be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [3] - Strategy: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both LLDPE and PP. Continue to monitor the implementation of upstream device maintenance, as the short - term supply - demand contradictions have not been improved, while geopolitical tensions are increasing cost - side disturbances and the strengthening of the coal sector is driving up market sentiment [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,628 yuan/ton (-14), and that of the PP main contract is 6,484 yuan/ton (-2). The LL spot prices in North and East China are 6,520 yuan/ton (+20) and 6,600 yuan/ton (+70) respectively, and the PP spot price in East China is 6,250 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North and East China is - 108 yuan/ton (+34) and - 28 yuan/ton (+84) respectively, and the PP basis in East China is - 234 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-1.3%) [1] - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 263.3 yuan/ton (+88.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 256.7 yuan/ton (+88.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 765.6 yuan/ton (+49.8) [1] - Import and Export: The LL import profit is 21.6 yuan/ton (-179.3), the PP import profit is - 300.5 yuan/ton (-21.3), and the PP export profit is - 34.1 US dollars/ton (-2.6) [1] - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.0% (+0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.9% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.2% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The short - term price rebounds, but the supply - demand fundamentals improvement is limited. The supply pressure persists, and the demand side is weak. The short - term inventory pressure has been slightly alleviated [2] - PP: The price rebounds, but there are still supply - demand contradictions. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of device maintenance, and the price rebound space is limited [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait - and - see for LLDPE and PP. Monitor the implementation of upstream device maintenance [4] - Inter - period: No strategy provided - Inter - variety: No strategy provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For PE, short - term sentiment boost and cost - side disturbances drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but limited improvement in supply - demand fundamentals restricts the rebound space. The supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - price imported goods, while the demand is weak as it's the off - season, and the downstream开工 rate continues to decline [1][2]. - For PP, short - term market sentiment turning warm, supply - side shrinkage expectations, and cost - side support drive the price to stop falling and rebound. However, the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory levels. The short - term rebound depends on the increase in supply - side maintenance scale, but the price rebound space may be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6449 yuan/ton (-23), PP main contract at 6330 yuan/ton (-18). LL North China spot was 6400 yuan/ton (+100), LL East China spot at 6480 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot at 6190 yuan/ton (+30). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (+123), LL East China basis at 31 yuan/ton (+103), PP East China basis at - 140 yuan/ton (+48) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE开工 rate was 83.2% (+0.6%), PP开工 rate was 76.7% (-0.1%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 64.5 yuan/ton (+78.3), PP oil - based production profit was - 415.5 yuan/ton (+78.3), PDH - made PP production profit was - 828.8 yuan/ton (-35.7) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was 99.3 yuan/ton (-2.5), PP import profit was - 351.2 yuan/ton (+7.4), PP export profit was - 22.4 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film开工 rate was 39.0% (-4.9%), PE downstream packaging film开工 rate was 48.4% (+0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工 rate was 43.1% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film开工 rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Short - term sentiment and cost factors drive the price to stop falling, but the supply - demand situation is unfavorable. New device production and expected increase in imports increase supply, while downstream demand remains weak as it's the off - season, and the开工 rate is expected to decline further [2]. - **PP**: Market sentiment, supply - side expectations, and cost support drive the price to rebound. However, the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory and limited downstream demand improvement [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: LLDPE and PP are under the "wait - and - see" strategy. The short - term may continue the volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream device maintenance [4]. - Inter - period: Not provided - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Central Financial and Economic Work Conference determined the economic direction. With the improvement of market sentiment boosted by macro - policies, the polyolefin market stopped falling and rebounded. However, the current weak supply - demand fundamentals provide insufficient support for prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is expected to be loose and the demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and limited oil - based cost support. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to be substantially boosted, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, the demand follow - up is insufficient, the inventory level is high, and the cost support is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（+71），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（+125）；LL华北现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 57元/吨（-71），LL华东基差为23元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为 - 54元/吨（-125） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为183.5元/吨（-105.5），PP油制生产利润为 - 436.5元/吨（-105.5），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 817.3元/吨（+75.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 112.2元/吨（-116.8），PP进口利润为 - 322.4元/吨（-26.9），PP出口利润为 - 10.6美元/吨（+3.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%） [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side, in December, the overall PE maintenance volume is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the future is also relatively limited. The PE start - up is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, so the supply pressure is continuous. Demand side, the overall downstream start - up of PE continues to decline, with the agricultural film start - up entering the off - season, and the demand for packaging film also weakening. Inventory side, although the PE social inventory is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the inventory pressure is expected to be large. Cost side, the oil price trend is weak, and the oil - based cost support is relatively limited [3]. - **PP**: Supply side, the previously shut - down enterprises are gradually restarting, the planned maintenance volume is relatively small, and the supply is expected to remain high. Demand side, the downstream demand start - up of BOPP, plastic weaving, etc. is okay, but the downstream replenishment is cautious. Inventory side, the overall inventory level is still high. Cost side, the international oil price is weak, and the cost support of PDH is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Go long on the L05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low; go long on the PP05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low [5]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with Iranian plants starting to shut down, the port and inland markets rebounded in resonance, the basis strengthened slightly, unloading was slow, and ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage facilities. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to reduce imports in December - January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the 01 contract will end with high inventory. It is advisable to consider shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract when prices are high [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. The upstream of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, and there is no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding products is stable, other price spreads are volatile, and LD prices are weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [3]. - For polypropylene, the upstream inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are volatile, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, downstream orders are currently average, and the raw material and finished product inventories of downstream enterprises are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to grow or there are more PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new plant commissioning and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. 3. Summary of Each Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The spot prices in different regions and other related prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia showed certain fluctuations, and the daily change of the basis was + 9. [1] - **Market Situation**: Iranian plants started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in the port and inland markets. The basis strengthened slightly, unloading was slow, and ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage facilities. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. [1] Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the prices of Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 740, and the prices of different types of polyethylene in various regions such as North China LL, East China LL showed different degrees of decline. The daily change of the主力期货 price was - 102, and the basis increased by 30. [3] - **Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral compared to the same period. The upstream and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, and the import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. [3] Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the price of Shandong propylene increased by 20, and the prices of various types of polypropylene in different regions such as East China PP and North China PP decreased to varying degrees. The daily change of the主力期货 price was - 72, and the basis increased by 10. [3] - **Market Situation**: The upstream and middle - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are volatile, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. [3] PVC - **Price Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the prices of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2550 on December 3 - 5, and the price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 742. The price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased by 50. [3] - **Market Situation**: The basis of the 01 contract is - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the middle - and upstream inventories are accumulating. The Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and in Q4, attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE: Neutral; PP: Cautiously short on rallies [3] - L01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies [3] - Cross -品种: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: The pattern of weak supply and demand continues. The short - term polyethylene futures is dominated by the cost side and continues the volatile pattern. High supply, limited demand support, and weak cost - side support lead to weak and volatile PE [2]. - PP: The supply - demand contradiction still exists. The previous weak propane on the cost side and the lack of macro - level boost lead to a weak pattern. Supply - side pressure persists, demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6888元/吨（-11）, PP主力合约收盘价为6576元/吨（-14）, LL华北现货为6890元/吨（-10）, LL华东现货为7000元/吨（-20）, PP华东现货为6580元/吨（+0）, LL华北基差为2元/吨（+1）, LL华东基差为112元/吨（-9）, PP华东基差为4元/吨（+14） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为283.4元/吨（-54.1）, PP油制生产利润为 - 396.6元/吨（-54.1）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 152.1元/吨（-55.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为18.8元/吨（-51.6）, PP进口利润为 - 292.8元/吨（-11.4）, PP出口利润为 - 16.5美元/吨（+1.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is limited, the cost - side support is expected to weaken, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction exists. The supply - side pressure persists, the demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE neutral; PP cautiously short on rallies [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: L01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies [3]. - **Cross -品种**: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - For L and PP, the rating is neutral [4]. 2. Core View - The downstream demand for polyolefins is still slowly increasing, and both PE and PP are under pressure. The short - term trends of PE and PP are mainly influenced by the cost side. The supply of both is under pressure, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PE is in short - term shock consolidation, and the price of PP continues to be weak [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,968 yuan/ton (-41), PP main contract at 6,651 yuan/ton (-34). LL North China spot was 6,950 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 7,060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,580 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis was -18 yuan/ton (+31), LL East China basis 92 yuan/ton (+41), PP East China basis -71 yuan/ton (+4) [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 80.9% (-0.6%), PP开工率 was 77.1% (+1.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 343.2 yuan/ton (-39.1), PP oil - based production profit was -346.8 yuan/ton (-39.1), PDH - based PP production profit was 45.6 yuan/ton (-8.9) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 69.8 yuan/ton (+86.1), PP import profit was -294.7 yuan/ton (+0.7), PP export profit was -21.7 dollars/ton (-5.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 49.5% (+2.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 51.3% (-1.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.6% (+0.2%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, the supply surplus expectation is strengthened, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The cost support of PE is weakened. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is still limited. The PE price is in short - term shock consolidation, and the upside space may be limited [3]. - **PP**: The oil - based cost support is weakened, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The supply pressure continues, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PP continues to be weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The polyolefin market continues to face pressure due to limited demand growth. Both PE and PP are in a situation of loose supply - demand and weak cost support. The market is expected to remain weak in the short - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6883 yuan/ton (+4), PP main contract at 6583 yuan/ton (+18). LL North China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot 6950 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6560 yuan/ton (-20). LL North China basis was -3 yuan/ton (-4), LL East China basis 67 yuan/ton (-4), PP East China basis -23 yuan/ton (-38) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 515.6 yuan/ton (+23.5), PP oil - based production profit was -94.4 yuan/ton (+23.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 122.3 yuan/ton (+12.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was -147.2 yuan/ton (+3.0), PP import profit was -560.1 yuan/ton (+13.0), PP export profit was 29.7 dollars/ton (-1.6) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream woven开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Recent continuous decline in PE is due to loose supply - demand, high inventory, and weakening cost support from falling oil prices. Supply is expected to increase with new production and restart of some devices. Demand growth is limited, mainly for rigid needs. Cost support is weakening. Future focus is on cost - side and macro - policy impacts [2]. - **PP**: The weakening of PP is dragged by falling oil and propane prices, and loose supply - demand. Supply is increasing with new production expected. Demand growth is insufficient, inventory is high, and cost support is weak. Attention should be paid to propane supply and PDH marginal device operations [3]. Strategy - **Single - Side**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; expect short - term weak and volatile market [4]. - **Inter - Period**: Conduct L01 - L05 reverse arbitrage; PP01 - PP05 reverse arbitrage [4]. - **Inter - Variety**: Short PP01 - 3MA01 when the spread is high [4].