聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-26 成本支撑走强，聚烯烃小幅走高 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为332.5元/吨（+17.9），PP油制生产利润为-247.5元/吨（+17.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为88.2元/吨（+12.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-44.2元/吨（+23.4），PP进口利润为-556.9元/吨（+3.4），PP出口利润为36.6美元/吨（-0.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为14.5%（+0.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.9%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工 率为42.0%（+0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（-0.5%）。 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7423元/吨（+43），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（+36），LL华北现货为7270 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7320元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-153元/吨（-43），LL 华东基差为-103元/吨（-43）， PP华东基差为-94元/吨（-36）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-5.5%），PP开 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-10 裕龙石化三线检修，检修损失量增加 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7278元/吨（+33），PP主力合约收盘价为7078元/吨（+33），LL华北现货为7180 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-98元/吨（-33），LL 华东基差为-8元/吨（-33）， PP华东基差为42元/吨（-33）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为94.8元/吨（-71.4），PP油制生产利润为-295.2元/吨（-71.4），PDH制PP生产利润 为250.4元/吨（-49.8）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为-634.8元/吨（-10.3），PP出口利润为29.5美元/吨（+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of macro - positive factors has ended, and the atmosphere of waiting and seeing prevails. Downstream factories have low purchasing sentiment, and most end - users make purchases based on rigid demand. Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and the maintenance loss is on the rise, alleviating the market supply pressure and leading to a slight reduction in production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, international oil prices and propane prices are falling, the production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. The downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the bottom - up recovery of the agricultural film industry's start - up rate and the decline of the plastic weaving industry's start - up rate [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7245元/吨（-2），PP主力合约收盘价为7045元/吨（-12），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-28），LL华东基差为25元/吨（-18），PP华东基差为75元/吨（+12） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）；PE油制生产利润为166.2元/吨（-108.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 243.8元/吨（-108.4），PDH制PP生产利润为300.1元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为 - 624.5元/吨（+86.2），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.3%（-0.1%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and production inventory has a slight reduction [2]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-02 需求淡季，下游刚需采购 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7249元/吨（-12），PP主力合约收盘价为7044元/吨（-26），LL华北现货为7190 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为-59元/吨（-38），LL 华东基差为51元/吨（-38）， PP华东基差为76元/吨（-14）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为76.4%（-2.3%），PP开工率为79.3%（-0.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为378.7元/吨（+19.9），PP油制生产利润为-51.3元/吨（+19.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为274.9元/吨（+6.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-48.2元/吨（+10.1），PP进口利润为-496.8元/吨（-182.2），PP出口利润为23.2美元/吨 （+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（+0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.0%（-1.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-06-11 供应压力恢复，需求表现一般 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7106元/吨（+28），PP主力合约收盘价为6941元/吨（+9），LL华北现货为7140 元/吨（+50），LL华东现货为7120元/吨（+20），PP华东现货为7080元/吨（+10），LL华北基差为34元/吨（+22）， LL华东基差为14元/吨（-8）， PP华东基差为139元/吨（+1）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为77.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为77.0%（+1.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为159.4元/吨（-47.7），PP油制生产利润为-110.6元/吨（-47.7），PDH制PP生产利 润为-122.1元/吨（+42.8）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-310.6元/吨（+9.4），PP进口利润为-475.4元/吨（-15.3），PP出口利润为16.5美元/吨（+1.9）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.9%（+0.3%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.7%（-0.5%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The terminal downstream demand for polyolefins has entered the traditional off - season, with limited market demand, general restocking enthusiasm, mainly rigid - demand procurement, and a cold market trading atmosphere. The supply side continues to increase, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly improved. Currently, the number of PE inventory maintenance devices has increased, alleviating the PE supply side. The previously shut - down PP devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been depleted. It is expected that the future supply will increase. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the agricultural film operating rate is at a low level, the packaging film operating rate fluctuates slightly, and the operating rates of industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP have increased slightly [2] - For the trading strategy, it is recommended to be cautiously bearish on plastics for single - side trading, and there is no strategy for inter - period trading [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 6972 yuan/ton (- 35), the PP main contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton (- 3), the LL North China spot was 7080 yuan/ton (- 50), the LL East China spot was 7200 yuan/ton (- 50), the PP East China spot was 7060 yuan/ton (+ 0), the LL North China basis was 108 yuan/ton (- 15), the LL East China basis was 228 yuan/ton (- 15), and the PP East China basis was 167 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 78.0% (- 1.4%), and the PP operating rate was 76.8% (+ 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 533.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), the PP oil - based production profit was 103.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 363.1 yuan/ton (- 91.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was - 213.2 yuan/ton (- 64.7), the PP import profit was - 619.4 yuan/ton (- 85.1), and the PP export profit was 23.2 US dollars/ton (+ 10.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 14.1% (- 2.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.2% (+ 0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 45.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.2% (+ 0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No relevant data presented in the provided content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The recent 90 - day tariff suspension agreement between China and the US has continued the positive impact of tariff policies, leading to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures prices. Propane prices have declined, but the production profit of PDH - made PP remains significantly in the red. Multiple new PDH units have been shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined. There is an expectation of rising PDH costs in the future. The new facility of Huizhou ExxonMobil has increased production. Among the existing facilities, the number of PE shutdown units has increased, with a slight decrease in the operating rate, while the PP operating rate has increased, resulting in significant supply pressure in the polyolefin market. Polyolefin producers have accumulated large inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks. Downstream demand is weak, with fewer new orders. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has seasonally decreased, while the operating rates of other industries are stable, mainly for rigid - demand purchases [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L main contract closed at 7339 yuan/ton (+152), PP main contract at 7193 yuan/ton (+119), LL North China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+170), LL East China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+100), PP East China spot at 7250 yuan/ton (+50), LL North China basis at 61 yuan/ton (+18), LL East China basis at 61 yuan/ton (-52), and PP East China basis at 57 yuan/ton (-69) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (-0.8%), PP operating rate was 79.7% (+5.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 374.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), PP oil - based production profit was 34.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), and PDH - made PP production profit was - 266.6 yuan/ton (+163.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 95.1 yuan/ton (+92.5), PP import profit was - 238.5 yuan/ton (+62.6), and PP export profit was 18.3 US dollars/ton (-7.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 19.4% (-4.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 47.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.8% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 57.6% (-1.9%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin producers have significantly accumulated inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks, but no specific inventory data provided [2]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-05-07 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6987元/吨（-96），PP主力合约收盘价为6995元/吨（-46），LL华北现货为7320 元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7330元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-80），LL华北基差为333元/吨（+86），LL 华东基差为343元/吨（+46）， PP华东基差为205元/吨（-34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为74.4%（-1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为659.2元/吨（+88.4），PP油制生产利润为319.2元/吨（+88.4），PDH制PP生产利 润为-677.0元/吨（-10.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-152.3元/吨（+0.0），PP进口利润为-340.1元/吨（-10.0），PP出口利润为20.2美元/吨（+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为23.4%（-2.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为47.9%（-1.0%），PP下游塑编开工率 为45.0%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.7%（-0.1%）。 ...

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of polyolefins are oscillating strongly due to the boost from upstream crude oil. The future supply of PE is expected to remain high, while the supply pressure of PP is alleviated due to many device overhauls. The downstream operating rates of polyolefins continue to decline, and the overall inventory is slightly reduced. The strategy suggests being cautiously bearish on plastics unilaterally, and there is no cross - period strategy [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7164 yuan/ton (+14), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+15). The LL North China spot price is 7400 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price is 7380 yuan/ton (+30), and the PP East China spot price is 7300 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is 236 yuan/ton (-24), the LL East China basis is 216 yuan/ton (+16), and the PP East China basis is 188 yuan/ton (+5) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 83.8% (-0.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-2.6%). The PE oil - based production profit is 342.0 yuan/ton (-25.0), the PP oil - based production profit is 32.0 yuan/ton (-25.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 496.6 yuan/ton (-0.7) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the given content. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 174.1 yuan/ton (+0.0), the PP import profit is - 331.8 yuan/ton (-20.0), and the PP export profit is 19.2 US dollars/ton (+2.4) [1]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 26.1% (-4.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.8% (+1.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 45.3% (-1.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.7% (-0.1%) [1]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The overall inventory is slightly reduced. However, no specific inventory data is provided [2].