长江期货聚烯烃月报 01 核心观点总结 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-02-02 聚烯烃：估值短暂修复，逢高沽空为主 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：1月30日塑料主力合约收盘价7014元/吨，月环比+8.37%。LDPE均价为9066.67元/吨，月环比+7.94%，HDPE均 价为7337.50元/吨，环比+6.92%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7213.89元/吨，环比+10.67%。LLDPE华南基差收于 199.89元/吨，环比331.41%，5-9月差-55元/吨（-33）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6824元/吨，较上月末+476元/吨，环比 +7.50%。生意社聚丙烯现货价报收6720元/吨（+2.13%）。PP基差收-104元/吨（-28），5-9月差-33元/吨（-1）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率85.35%，较上周+0.68个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量70.60万吨，环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views - Polyolefins: The upward range is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within the range, paying attention to the support at 6,600, and the PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6,500, with a focus on short - selling on rallies [8]. - Plastics: There are still supply - demand contradictions, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - PP: There is significant upward pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [52]. 3. Summary by Directory Plastic 3.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 16, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,695 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. The average price of LDPE was 9,183.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.42%, the average price of HDPE was 7,262.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.20%, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,004.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 309.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.34%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 175 yuan/ton (+74) [11]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 16, 2026, was - 175 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 28 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 87 yuan/ton [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The report provides detailed spot prices and price changes for different regions and varieties of plastics [19][20]. - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $59.22 per barrel, an increase of $0.44 per barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.20 per barrel, an increase of $1.18 per barrel from the previous week. The quoted price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 531 yuan/ton, compared with 59 yuan/ton last week; the profit of coal - based PE was 217 yuan/ton, an increase of 183 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production start - up rate was 81.59%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 66.98 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%. This week's maintenance loss was 11.27 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons from last week [33]. - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have polyethylene production capacity expansion plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 5.5 million tons [36]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines are in a state of shutdown or maintenance, and some start - up times are undetermined [37]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 36.93%, a decrease of 0.96% from last week; the PE packaging film start - up rate was 48.15%, a decrease of 0.81% from last week, and the PE pipe start - up rate was 29.33%, a decrease of 0.17% from last week [39]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, currently accounting for 28.1%, with a difference of 4.7% from the annual average level; the low - pressure film shows a significant difference from the annual average data, currently accounting for 4.3%, with a difference of 3.5% from the annual average level [43]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.43 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% [45]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 10,627 lots, a decrease of 738 lots from last week [49]. PP 3.3 Weekly Market Review - On January 16, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,496 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28% [54]. 3.4 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Prices**: The report provides price information and price changes for various PP products and related products [56][58]. - **Basis**: On January 16, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6,576.67 yuan/ton (+3.14%). The PP basis closed at 81 yuan/ton (+218), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 261 yuan/ton (-49) [60]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 16, 2026, was - 261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 299 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton [69]. - **Cost**: The cost data is the same as that of plastics, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rising, and the anthracite price remaining unchanged [73]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 619.27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102.91 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PP was - 418.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.47 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of China's PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.62%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from last week. The weekly production of PP pellets reached 77.58 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. The weekly production of PP powder reached 5.69 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.62% [84]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises are in a state of shutdown or maintenance, and some start - up times are undetermined [87]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream start - up rate was 52.53% (-0.07). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.60% (-0.32%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 63.56% (+0.32%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 57.93% (-0.11%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 33.87% (-0.11%) [89]. - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 251.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19.04 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the export profit was - 38.63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.82 US dollars/ton compared with last week [95]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 43.10 tons (-7.85%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 4.12% month - on - month; the trader's inventory decreased by 5.28% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 0.70% month - on - month [98]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17,508 lots, an increase of 2,063 lots from last week [105].