长江期货聚烯烃月报 01 核心观点总结 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-02-02 聚烯烃：估值短暂修复，逢高沽空为主 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：1月30日塑料主力合约收盘价7014元/吨，月环比+8.37%。LDPE均价为9066.67元/吨，月环比+7.94%，HDPE均 价为7337.50元/吨，环比+6.92%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7213.89元/吨，环比+10.67%。LLDPE华南基差收于 199.89元/吨，环比331.41%，5-9月差-55元/吨（-33）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6824元/吨，较上月末+476元/吨，环比 +7.50%。生意社聚丙烯现货价报收6720元/吨（+2.13%）。PP基差收-104元/吨（-28），5-9月差-33元/吨（-1）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率85.35%，较上周+0.68个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量70.60万吨，环 ...

长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-01-26 01 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：估值短暂修复，等待逢高沽空 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：1月23日塑料主力合约收盘价6865元/吨，周环比+2.54%。LDPE均价为9033.33元/吨，环比-1.28%，HDPE均价 为7200元/吨，环比-0.52%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为6987.78元/吨，环比+0.38%。LLDPE华南基差收于122.78元/ 吨，环比-58.33%，5-9月差-22元/吨（+6）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6656元/吨，较上周末+160元/吨，环比+2.46%。生意 社聚丙烯现货价报收6580元/吨（+0.05%）。PP基差收-76元/吨（-157），1-5月差-11元/吨（+250）。 2 3 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率84.67%，较上周+3.08个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量69.89万吨，环比 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading at low levels. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. The previous downward trend in polyolefin valuations was influenced by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. However, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp, international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded, which will support domestic polyolefin prices, and the market may gradually stop falling and rebound to repair valuations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6561, 6599, and 6635 respectively, with price changes of 4, -11, and -21, and percentage changes of 0.06%, -0.17%, and -0.32%. The trading volumes were 289654, 280955, and 2747, and the open interests were 267012, 409894, and 6370, with changes of -72250, 50119, and 625 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6162, 6243, and 6283 respectively, with price changes of -30, -37, and -39, and percentage changes of -0.48%, -0.59%, and -0.62%. The trading volumes were 272617, 203963, and 3106, and the open interests were 380203, 374591, and 19070, with changes of -30955, 33415, and 432 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -38, -36, and 74 respectively (previous values were -53, -46, and 99). For PP, the spreads were -81, -40, and 121 respectively (previous values were -88, -42, and 130) [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film are 2057 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 596 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6030 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6700 - 7100, 6550 - 6850, and 6650 - 7050 respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6150 - 6350, 6100 - 6250, and 6200 - 6400 respectively [2] News - On Wednesday (December 10), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.46 per barrel, up $0.21 or 0.36% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.66 - $59.05. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.21 per barrel, up $0.27 or 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.35 - $62.73 [2]