Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand for summer travel in the US is higher than expected, and the strong gasoline demand boosts market confidence. OPEC+ is optimistic about gasoline demand in the third quarter. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August, which postpones market concerns. PTA will see new installations put into production in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. The PX supply side lacks positive factors, and with the off - season of polyester consumption and a significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates, and the fundamentals are weakening. The PTA market is affected by the strong crude oil market, and the downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than last year. The PTA spot basis has rebounded from the bottom. However, with new installations expected on the supply side and no improvement in demand during the off - season, it's difficult to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, and due to weak supply - demand expectations, prices have fallen across the board. If polyester production cuts deepen, industry chain contradictions will intensify. The cost - side strength drives the profit distribution pattern to tilt towards raw materials again. PTA will fluctuate, with cost being the dominant factor. The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply, and downstream buying enthusiasm is waning. The polyester industry chain has weak demand and is expected to fluctuate. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 14, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $66.98 per barrel, down 2.15% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $69.21 per barrel, down 1.63%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on July 11 was $584.25 per ton, down 1.14%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) on July 14 was $740 per ton, up 2.85%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) on July 14 was $852 per ton, up 1.83% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,740 yuan per ton, up 0.85%; the settlement price was 4,726 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,732 yuan per ton, up 0.72%; the settlement price was 4,726 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,735 yuan per ton, up 0.45%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,735 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The CCFEI price index of foreign PTA on July 11 was $624 per ton, down 1.58%. The near - far month spread was 0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton; the basis was - 5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [1]. - **PX**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,778 yuan per ton, up 1.25%; the settlement price was 6,748 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,926 yuan per ton, up 0.44%; the settlement price was 6,926 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,813 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR Chinese Taipei) was $851 per ton, up 1.67%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $826 per ton, up 1.72%. The PXN spread was $267.75 per ton, up 8.99%; the PX - MX spread was $112 per ton, down 4.41%. The basis was 35 yuan per ton, a decrease of 84 yuan per ton [1]. - **PR**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,920 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the settlement price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,948 yuan per ton, up 0.27%; the settlement price was 5,948 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The market price (dominant price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,955 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 6,020 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 35 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton; in the South China market, it was 100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 14, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,050 yuan per ton, down 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,655 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,955 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On July 14, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.98%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 0.28 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 71.93%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 59.12%, unchanged. The sales rate of polyester filament was 37%, up 1 percentage point; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 74%, up 33 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 144%, up 83 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategies - PTA has slightly rebounded, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,740 yuan per ton (up 0.64%), and the daily trading volume was 1.01 million lots. The PX price has returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,778 yuan per ton (up 0.86%), and the daily trading volume was 228,200 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,920 yuan per ton (up 0.58%), and the daily trading volume was 53,700 lots. The international oil price has declined. The polyester industry chain has weak demand and is expected to fluctuate. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to fluctuate (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]