花旗发布研报称，基于近期废纸成本及年初至今纸浆价格较2025年第四季出现超预期的价格调整，下调 玖龙纸业(02689)2026、2027及2028财年盈利预测9%、12%及7%。这反映2025年第四季的高基数是由于 反内卷措施所致，而近期的价格调整则由农历新年淡季及消费疲软引起。该行也将目标价由先前的9.5 港元下调至8.8港元。 该行认为，玖龙纸业股价年初至今已上升约50%，应已完全反映2026财年上半年亮丽的业绩。因此，该 行下调其评级，由"买入"降至"中性"，认为上行空间有限。花旗同时开启30日负面催化观察，基于预期 中国(旧瓦楞纸箱)OCC成本在第二季淡季将下滑，预期2026财年下半年纯利将同比下跌7%，每吨净利 润由去年同期的129元人民币收窄至101元人民币。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's stock has seen an increase of over 4%, currently trading at 21.18 HKD with a transaction volume of 338 million HKD, despite a reported decline in retail sales for Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Li Ning announced a low single-digit decline in retail sales for its sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) across the platform for Q4 2025 [1] - Guosen Securities reported that the decline in Li Ning's bulk sales for Q4 was a low single-digit decrease, which is an improvement compared to Q3, primarily due to a reduction in the decline of offline channels [1] - The inventory turnover ratio improved to 4-5 months, indicating better inventory management [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts a moderate revenue growth for Li Ning in 2025, with net profit margins expected to stabilize at a high single-digit level, suggesting an upward adjustment in market consensus for last year's net profit [1] - According to浦银国际, strong market sentiment could lead to significant upward momentum in Li Ning's stock price if there is a clear trend of brand recovery and improvement in sales [1]