Core Insights - The sports market is shifting towards a passive growth phase, with major brands experiencing varying degrees of sales performance [1][5] Group 1: Company Performance - Anta Sports reported low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its brand products in Q3 2025, while FILA also saw similar growth [1] - Li Ning experienced a decline in retail sales, with a mid-single-digit drop in Q3, particularly in offline channels [1] - Nike's revenue in Greater China fell by 10% to $1.512 billion (approximately 10.775 billion RMB) for the latest fiscal quarter ending August 31, 2025 [1] - Peak's domestic direct sales segment has been continuously losing money, with losses exceeding 130 million RMB from January to July 2025, leading to significant salary cuts [1][2] Group 2: Market Opportunities - Anta is exploring new market segments, with its "other brands" category, including DESCENTE and KOLON, achieving a retail sales growth of 45-50% year-on-year in Q3 [2] - Both Anta and Li Ning are increasing their investment in research and development, with Anta establishing partnerships with universities for sports shoe design education [3][4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The current market dynamics indicate a trend towards intensified competition among major players in the sports industry [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HKD 16.28, indicating a potential downside of 7.7% from the current closing price of HKD 17.63 [2][3]. Core Insights - The sales performance in Q3 has weakened, and the recovery pace remains sluggish. The company is expected to experience a slow sales recovery in the second half of the year, with a forecast of low single-digit revenue decline [8]. - The report highlights that the online sales channels outperformed offline channels in Q3, with e-commerce showing high single-digit growth, while offline channels saw a high single-digit decline [8]. - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with increased discount pressures anticipated in Q4 due to key promotional events like Double 11 and Double 12 [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2023: RMB 27,598 million - 2024: RMB 28,676 million (growth of 3.9%) - 2025E: RMB 29,007 million (growth of 1.2%) - 2026E: RMB 30,103 million (growth of 3.8%) - 2027E: RMB 30,945 million (growth of 2.8%) [7][17]. - Net profit estimates are projected to decline from RMB 3,187 million in 2023 to RMB 2,678 million in 2025E, reflecting a decrease of 20.7% and 5.1% in subsequent years [7][17]. - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 14 times for 2026, suggesting that the current stock price adequately reflects the sales recovery outlook [8]. Market Position - As of Q3, Li Ning had 6,132 sales points, with a net increase of 33 points from the previous quarter. The company aims to maintain its store opening targets despite the competitive pressures [8]. - The report notes that the inventory turnover ratio is relatively healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of 5-6 months as of Q3 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Pino family is exploring strategic options for the German sports brand Puma, including a potential sale [1] Group 1: Strategic Options - The Pino family is collaborating with advisors and engaging with potential buyers, including Anta and Li Ning, as well as other U.S. sports apparel companies and sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East [1] Group 2: Li Ning's Response - A representative from Li Ning stated that the company has not engaged in any substantial negotiations or evaluations regarding the rumored transaction [1] - Li Ning remains focused on its core development strategy of "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels," prioritizing the growth and development of the Li Ning brand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sales trend for the Li Ning brand in Q2 2025 has weakened slightly, falling below the company's expectations, with a low single-digit year-on-year retail revenue growth across all platforms [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, the online channel outperformed the offline channel, with e-commerce recording a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, while the offline channel experienced a low single-digit decline [1] - The wholesale channel performed better than the retail channel, with offline wholesale and retail channels showing low single-digit growth and mid-single-digit decline year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - Based on more cautious sales assumptions, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards, with expected revenues adjusted to between 29.0 billion and 30.95 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 0.3% to 5.8% [2] - The gross margin and net margin forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered by 0.1% to 0.5% and 0.8% to 1.0%, respectively, leading to a revised net profit estimate of 2.68 billion to 3.40 billion RMB [2] Group 3: Market Conditions - The overall industry recovery has been weak, with a strong promotional atmosphere impacting sales, particularly noted during events like the 618 shopping festival [2] - The company anticipates that the sales recovery in the second half of the year will face headwinds due to ongoing industry promotions, which are expected to pressure gross margins [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The central government is taking action to address the issue of "black mouths" on the internet that harm businesses, with a two-month nationwide campaign aimed at rectifying malicious attacks and marketing practices against companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Government Actions - The Central Cyberspace Administration of China launched a two-month campaign to tackle four major issues, including malicious defamation and harmful marketing practices against enterprises [1]. - The campaign aims to protect the legitimate rights and interests of businesses and entrepreneurs, which are crucial for high-quality economic development [2][3]. - New regulations and guidelines have been established to clarify the handling of online infringement information related to enterprises, enhancing legal frameworks to combat misleading and defamatory content [3][4]. Group 2: Company Responses - Companies like Pang Donglai and Huiyuan Juice have publicly responded to false information, emphasizing their operational transparency and commitment to legal recourse against defamation [1][2]. - Li Ning has also taken legal action against malicious rumors, asserting its rights and defending its brand reputation [4]. - The proactive stance of these companies in addressing online misinformation is seen as a necessary step to maintain their market positions and protect their interests [4].