摩根大通发表研究报告，预计华晨中国2026年上半年股息介乎0.35至0.9港元(若包含特别息)，意味股息 率约为8%至21%。虽然股息水平具吸引力，但该行认为后续股息金额可能迅速回落，因公司的现金水 平已不及以往充裕，而且华晨宝马合资公司在中国市场的盈利仍可能持续面临挑战。该行将华晨中国 2025及26年盈利预测分别下调11%及4%，目标价由4.7港元降至4.1港元，建议投资者锁定利润，评级 由"增持"下调至"中性"。 ...

责任编辑：张俊 SF065 美股周五早盘，美国西南航空公司（Southwest Airlines，LUV）股价上涨2.9%。尽管该公司出于美国联 邦政府有史以来最长停摆期间的需求下滑的理由下调其2025年盈利预测，但其股价仍然上涨。 该航司表示，由于停摆期间收入降低以及燃料价格上涨，预计2025年息税前利润约为5亿美元，低于此 前预测的6亿至8亿美元。 "在与政府停摆相关的需求暂时下降之后，预订量已恢复到之前的预期水平，"西南航空在一份证券备案 文件中表示。 该航司表示，由于停摆期间收入降低以及燃料价格上涨，预计2025年息税前利润约为5亿美元，低于此 前预测的6亿至8亿美元。 "在与政府停摆相关的需求暂时下降之后，预订量已恢复到之前的预期水平，"西南航空在一份证券备案 文件中表示。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 美股周五早盘，美国西南航空公司（Southwest Airlines，LUV）股价上涨2.9%。尽管该公司出于美国联 邦政府有史以来最长停摆期间的需求下滑的理由下调其2025年盈利预测，但其股价仍然上涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has lowered the profit forecast for Shenzhou International for 2025 to 2027 by 2%, adjusting the target price from HKD 95 to HKD 94 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, suggesting that the recent stock price decline may reflect management's conservative sales outlook, which presents a buying opportunity due to an expected dividend yield of 4.8% in FY2026 and a projected annual compound growth rate of 12% in earnings per share over the next three years [1] Group 1 - Citigroup has revised its sales growth forecast for Shenzhou International's second half of the year from high single digits to mid-single digits, primarily due to nearly flat sales growth in the third quarter [1] - The two major brands are still in discussions with the group regarding tariff sharing [1] - Observations indicate that delivery volumes in October and November have accelerated to catch up with the lagging progress from the third quarter [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 2.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 38.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 326 million yuan, down 71.0% year-on-year [6] - The report indicates a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to significant declines in revenue and profit amid external pressures, with expected net profits of 590 million, 685 million, and 854 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The report highlights a significant drop in the company's white liquor business revenue, which fell to 817 million yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 59.9% year-on-year, with sales volume down 11.2% and average price per ton down 39.5% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 5.217 billion yuan for 2024, 3.111 billion yuan for 2025, 3.350 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.703 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, -40.4%, 7.7%, and 10.5% [4] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 590 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 56.0%, with subsequent increases of 16.1% and 24.7% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 80.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.0% [4] Market Data - As of October 31, 2025, the company's closing price is 42.29 yuan, with a market capitalization of 20.617 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35x for 2025 [1][4] - The stock has a dividend yield of 2.29%, calculated based on the most recently announced dividends [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2025 was below expectations, with total revenue of 25.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 51.6%, and a net profit of 2.99 billion yuan, down 74.6% year-on-year [5] - Due to the disappointing performance, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 4.3 billion, 4.6 billion, and 5.2 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -22.1%, +7.7%, and +11.5% [5] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 20x, 18x, and 16x, which are still within a reasonable range compared to regional peers [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 19.284 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -18.2% [4] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 4.295 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 22.1% [4] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 79.5% for 2025 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decrease from 15.6% in 2025 to 13.3% by 2027 [4] Performance Metrics - The company's operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was -1.527 billion yuan, compared to 1.33 billion yuan in the same period last year [5] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 11.7%, down 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales and management expense ratios [5] - The company's total assets and liabilities ratio stands at 30.55% as of September 30, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's earnings and sales forecasts due to challenging market conditions, particularly weak beer demand in China during Q3, affecting its premium and super-premium beer categories [1][2]. Summary by Category Earnings Forecast - Budweiser APAC's earnings forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 14% [1][2]. - The earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have also been lowered by 8% based on the low base from 2025 [1][2]. Sales and Operating Profit - Sales and operating profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC have been adjusted downwards by 7% and 13%, respectively [1][2]. Target Price and Rating - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been decreased from HKD 9.5 to HKD 9.3, while the rating remains "Overweight" [1][2].

大摩发表报告指，由于市况仍然严峻，将百威亚太2025年盈利预测下调14%，同时将销售额及经营利润 预测分别下调7%及13%，以考虑到中国于第三季啤酒需求持续疲弱，影响到公司的高端和超高端啤酒 类别，而去库存情况仍在持续。大摩将百威亚太2026至2027年盈利预测从2025年的低基数下调8%，目 标价相应由9.5港元下调至9.3港元，评级"增持"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that Haitan International's management has revealed a recent slowdown in orders, leading to a forecast of revenue growth in the second half of the year potentially dropping to high single digits, which is below the 12.5% growth rate seen in the first half of the year [1] Group 1 - The company has been removed from Citigroup's preferred list for Chinese industrials [1] - Earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been revised down by 2% [1] - The target price has been reduced from HKD 33.5 to HKD 30, while maintaining a "buy" rating due to perceived low valuation and a dividend yield of approximately 4% [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has lowered the sales forecast for China National Pharmaceutical Group (03933) for the years 2023 to 2027 by 17.7% to 17.8% [1] - The earnings forecast has been reduced by 28.4% to 35.6% [1] - The firm expects a weak price cycle for antibiotic active pharmaceutical ingredients over the next two years [1] Group 2 - The sales of the company in the first half of the year increased by 5% year-on-year to 7.5 billion RMB [1] - Core business revenue decreased by 15% year-on-year to 6.1 billion RMB, which was below the firm's expectation of 6.5 billion RMB [1] - Profit increased by 27% year-on-year to 1.9 billion RMB, but core profit declined and was below the firm's expectations [1] Group 3 - The firm has raised the target price for the stock from 15.29 HKD to 16.07 HKD, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The sales forecast for high-margin insulin products has been increased by 27% to 30%, benefiting from incremental sales due to exports [1] - The company's gross margin for intermediates and bulk pharmaceuticals has been eroded, and increased administrative expenses due to business expansion consulting fees have been noted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with a revenue of HKD 49.8 billion, down 4% YoY, and a net profit of HKD 2.403 billion, down 30% YoY, primarily due to a decline in connection numbers and comprehensive service revenue, leading to a decrease in gross profit margin [1] Financial Performance - 1H25 natural gas retail volume was 20.8 billion cubic meters, down 0.7% YoY, with commercial and industrial gas volumes affected by a warm winter, decreasing by 3% and 2% respectively [1] - Retail gas gross margin was HKD 0.55 per cubic meter, up HKD 0.01 YoY, with 831,000 new residential connections, down 19% YoY, and comprehensive service revenue of HKD 1.45 billion, down 18% YoY [1] Development Trends - The company adjusted multiple growth indicators for 2025, including gas volume growth (low single-digit growth vs. previous guidance of +4-5% YoY), connection numbers (2.1-2.2 million vs. previous 2.3-2.5 million), and comprehensive service revenue (mid-low single-digit growth vs. previous +20-30% YoY) [1] - Capital expenditure for acquisitions was adjusted to HKD 300 million for the year, down from HKD 500 million previously, while maintaining a gross margin growth guidance of HKD 0.01 per cubic meter to HKD 0.54 per cubic meter [1] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns, with a guidance for total dividends in 2025 not to be lower than HKD 0.95 per share, implying a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on current stock price [2] - A stock buyback plan was announced for the end of 2024, with a scale of no less than 1.98% of total share capital, which is expected to further improve shareholder returns [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to ongoing pressure on connection numbers, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 8.2% and 10.2% to HKD 3.767 billion and HKD 4.110 billion respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 11.7x for 2025 and 10.7x for 2026, with a target price adjustment down by 7.4% to HKD 25, reflecting a potential upside of 31.2% [2]