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铝:区间震荡氧化铝:下方空间恐仍在铸造,铝合金:跟随电解铝
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 07:57
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Potential further downside [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Tracks electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for aluminum is expected to show range - bound movement, while alumina may still have room to decline, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The US market shows "stock - bond double - rise" with different narratives. The bond market prices in "employment slowdown", and the stock market prices in "economic acceleration". There are risks of stock market decline if growth prospects worsen and bond market correction if employment is stronger than expected [3] - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as October. Despite political uncertainties, the bank may continue to tighten monetary policy considering economic data and inflation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,750, up 30 from the previous day. The trading volume was 99,364, a decrease of 8,155. The open interest was 194,194, a decrease of 1,586 [1] - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,628, up 18. The trading volume was 15,566, a decrease of 2,482 [1] Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,929, down 31. The trading volume was 226,938, a decrease of 77,820. The open interest was 281,112, an increase of 8,382 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,305, up 10. The trading volume was 962, a decrease of 96. The open interest was 7,825, an increase of 115 [1] Spot Market Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 629,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The aluminum ingot refined - scrap price difference was 278, up 46 [1] Alumina - The alumina average price in China was 3,128, down 18. The alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 363 US dollars per ton, down 16 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 198, down 72. The total inventory of three locations was 34,877, an increase of 70 [1] Other Market Indicators - The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [3]