瑞穗证券：日本央行短期内仍将维持强硬立场，但不会感到任何加息的紧迫性。迄今为止60个基点的加息已导致长期日本国债收益率进一步大幅上升，因此日本央行将谨慎行事，避免过度紧缩经济。脆弱的家庭信心以及“美联储和日本央行立场分歧加剧日元急剧升值可能带来负面冲击的风险”，这些因素也可能制约日本央行的行动。如果美联储在日本央行强硬立场的背景下大幅转向鸽派，随之而来的日元飙升可能会重创日本的出口和资产市场。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Potential further downside [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Tracks electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for aluminum is expected to show range - bound movement, while alumina may still have room to decline, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The US market shows "stock - bond double - rise" with different narratives. The bond market prices in "employment slowdown", and the stock market prices in "economic acceleration". There are risks of stock market decline if growth prospects worsen and bond market correction if employment is stronger than expected [3] - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as October. Despite political uncertainties, the bank may continue to tighten monetary policy considering economic data and inflation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,750, up 30 from the previous day. The trading volume was 99,364, a decrease of 8,155. The open interest was 194,194, a decrease of 1,586 [1] - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,628, up 18. The trading volume was 15,566, a decrease of 2,482 [1] Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,929, down 31. The trading volume was 226,938, a decrease of 77,820. The open interest was 281,112, an increase of 8,382 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,305, up 10. The trading volume was 962, a decrease of 96. The open interest was 7,825, an increase of 115 [1] Spot Market Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 629,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The aluminum ingot refined - scrap price difference was 278, up 46 [1] Alumina - The alumina average price in China was 3,128, down 18. The alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 363 US dollars per ton, down 16 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 198, down 72. The total inventory of three locations was 34,877, an increase of 70 [1] Other Market Indicators - The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey maintains its medium-term inflation target at 24% for the end of 2025, despite a significant drop in annual inflation to 33.5% in July from a peak of 75.5% in May of the previous year [1][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Central Bank of Turkey has restarted interest rate cuts, lowering the benchmark rate by 300 basis points to 43% in July 2023, with expectations that it may drop to 36.2% by the end of the year [1][2] - The Central Bank emphasizes a continued tight monetary policy until price stability is achieved, as domestic demand is slowing and the deflationary effects from weakened demand are increasing [1][3] - The core inflation indicators have shown a temporary rise due to regular price adjustments in the service sector, particularly in housing, hotels, and dining [3][4] Group 2: Economic Growth and External Factors - The current account deficit was approximately 1.3% of GDP in the second quarter, with expectations that it will remain below long-term averages in 2025, although energy prices and global trade policies pose potential risks [2] - Turkey's economic growth is projected to be 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, which is lower than the previous quarter's growth of 3% [3] - The International Monetary Fund highlights that Turkey's inflation rate remains high and poses challenges to economic growth and financial stability, with structural pressures still unresolved [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's monetary policy remains restrictive and will continue to be tight [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey emphasizes the importance of maintaining a tight monetary policy to combat inflation [1] - The central bank is committed to ensuring that inflation returns to its target level [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's unexpected decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points has caused significant market turmoil, leading to fears of a potential economic recession globally [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to accelerate monetary tightening has raised concerns among economists about the risk of a prolonged economic downturn in the U.S. [3] - The recent interest rate hike exceeds most market expectations, indicating a strong response to rising inflation [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Global stock markets experienced dramatic declines within 48 hours, particularly impacting technology stocks, which faced severe losses [2][3]. - Investor panic has led to widespread asset sell-offs in various markets, including China, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts predict that the downturn in technology stocks may be just the beginning, with other sectors such as real estate and energy likely to face significant pressure [3]. - Concerns are growing that continued rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could shrink consumer markets and lead to a wave of corporate bankruptcies [6].

Group 1 - The Japanese government advisory panel urges authorities to intensify fiscal consolidation efforts due to rising debt repayment costs exacerbated by the Bank of Japan's ongoing monetary tightening actions [1] - The Fiscal System Council warns that the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes and reduction in bond purchases are leading to a steady increase in government bond yields, necessitating greater attention to Japan's fiscal situation [1] - The council emphasizes the need for urgent fiscal management to prevent rising debt costs from crowding out essential policy expenditures [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has secretly purchased $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a return to quantitative easing (QE) practices, which is not typical for the Fed [1] - Financial analyst Lyn Alden suggests that while the Fed has not officially labeled this as QE, the act of buying bonds is essentially a form of monetary easing, regardless of the terminology used [1] - The rise in gold prices reflects a lack of trust in politicians and central bankers, with gold being seen as a reliable asset amidst economic uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin has also reacted positively, driven by skepticism towards central planners and the recent halving event that has historically led to bullish trends in its price [2] - The Trump administration's shift towards recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic asset, along with increased institutional investment in Bitcoin ETFs, signifies its growing acceptance in mainstream finance [2] - Brazil's economy, driven by commodities, is experiencing a bull market, with ETFs like iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) and iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) rising approximately 24% this year, attributed to the Fed's actions leading to a weaker dollar and rising commodity prices [3] Group 3 - The covert QE actions by the Fed may accelerate returns in gold, Bitcoin, and resource-rich economies like Brazil, positioning them as safe havens and profit opportunities amid financial turbulence [3] - Investors who remain vigilant and act on these signals are likely to capture excess returns, as indicated by Charlie Garcia, founder and managing partner of R360, who holds positions in gold, silver, and Bitcoin [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent "triple kill" in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets triggered by Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting concerns over inflation, economic stagnation, and the long-term trust in U.S. dollar assets [1][38]. Historical Context of "Triple Kill" - Since 1970, there have been 10 notable instances of "triple kill," primarily associated with stagflation concerns, monetary tightening, and a decline in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. dollar [2][19]. - Common triggers include economic stagnation or stagflation worries, monetary tightening to combat inflation, and a weakening of the U.S. dollar's relative appeal [2][19]. Economic Stagnation and Inflation - Historical instances of "triple kill" often occurred during periods of economic downturn and high inflation, where the Federal Reserve had to tighten monetary policy, leading to a dual impact on both stock and bond markets [2][19]. - For example, during the 1973-1974 period, the S&P 500 dropped by 15.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 60 basis points [4][6]. Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's delayed or inconsistent response to inflation has historically exacerbated inflation expectations, contributing to market volatility [9][19]. - In 1987, for instance, the Fed's shift to a hawkish stance led to a significant rise in bond yields and a corresponding drop in stock prices [19][21]. Recent Market Dynamics - The recent "triple kill" was primarily triggered by Trump's unexpected "reciprocal tariffs," which raised short-term market volatility and long-term concerns about inflation and economic growth [38][40]. - The tariffs are projected to increase U.S. inflation by 1.6 to 1.8 percentage points and reduce GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [40][48]. Long-term Implications for Dollar Assets - While the tariffs may undermine investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, the article argues that the long-term impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency will take time to materialize [49][51]. - The current structure of U.S. debt and the predominance of domestic holders of U.S. Treasuries suggest that the dollar's position as a global reserve currency remains intact for now [51][56]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that if negotiations on tariffs or tax cuts progress positively, it could alleviate market pressures and stabilize investor sentiment [56]. - Conversely, persistent stagflation pressures could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates quickly, potentially exacerbating market volatility [56][57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the temporary pause in the Bank of Japan's monetary tightening cycle will increase selling pressure on the yen, shifting market focus back to Japan's low interest rate environment [1] - The expectation of reduced interest rate hikes is intensifying the risk of yen depreciation, as noted by Shoki Omori, Chief Strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo [1] - The cautious tone of the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding the positive interaction between wages and prices highlights the complexity of short positions in USD/JPY [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential restructuring of the global trading system, focusing on the implications of the U.S. dollar's strength and the possibility of a new international monetary framework, particularly in light of recent comments from President Trump regarding currency devaluation by trade partners [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Dollar and Currency Valuation - The U.S. dollar is considered overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency, which imposes costs on U.S. manufacturers and exporters [2][5]. - President Trump has criticized the devaluation of currencies like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, asserting that such actions create an unfair disadvantage for the U.S. [2][5]. - The actual exchange rate of the dollar has strengthened, with the International Bank for Settlements indicating that the dollar's real exchange rate is at a high level compared to the pre-Plaza Accord period [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the Plaza Accord of 1985, which aimed to induce a depreciation of the dollar through coordinated intervention by major economies [5][6]. - The scale of the foreign exchange market has significantly increased since the Plaza Accord, complicating any potential coordinated intervention today [6][7]. - The historical context highlights that the intervention during the Plaza Accord involved approximately $10 billion, while recent interventions, such as Japan's, have reached much higher amounts, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Implications - Achieving a new agreement similar to the Plaza Accord would require participation from emerging economies, which presents significant challenges compared to the past [6][7]. - There is speculation that Trump may push for a weaker dollar through tariffs, which could lead to increased pressure on countries like Japan to adjust their monetary policies [7]. - The potential for a new monetary agreement, referred to as the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," remains uncertain, but if realized, it could have profound implications for the foreign exchange market and the global economy [1][7].