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2025年6月金融数据及新闻发布会解读:从央行新闻发布会再看股债汇三角
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-14 13:38
Monetary Supply and Credit Growth - M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year in June 2025, up from 2.3% in the previous period[1] - M2 growth reached 8.3%, marking a return above 8% for the first time in 14 months, compared to 7.9% previously[1] - New social financing (社融) totaled 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, resulting in a growth rate of 8.9%[1] Loan and Deposit Trends - Financial institutions issued 2.24 trillion yuan in new loans, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan, maintaining a loan growth rate of 7.1%[1] - Total deposits increased by 3.21 trillion yuan in June, with household deposits rising by 2.47 trillion yuan and corporate deposits by 1.78 trillion yuan[3] - The growth of effective social financing (excluding government financing) rose to 6.06%, up from 5.98%[6] Market Outlook and Policy Implications - The central bank emphasized the importance of stabilizing social expectations and stimulating market vitality through monetary policy[8] - The central bank aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, avoiding depreciation for competitive advantage[8] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.7% in the second half of the year[41]