点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 流动性：M1和M2增速差在2025年6月为-3.7个百分点 （1）BCI中小企业融资环境指数2025年6月值为49.12，环比上月+0.07%；（2）M1和M2增速差与上证指 数存在较强的正向相关性：M1和M2增速差在2025年6月为-3.7个百分点，环比+1.9个百分点；（3）本周 伦敦金现价格环比上周-0.15%。 基建和地产链条：螺纹钢价格创4月以来新高水平 （1）本周价格变动：螺纹+0.93%、水泥价格指数-1.50%、橡胶+2.11%、焦炭+4.46%、焦煤+6.38%、铁 矿+4.28%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别 +0.99pct、-3.30pct、-2.6pct、+0.54p ...

来源：意见领袖 意见领袖 | 温彬 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年7月21日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期 LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均维持不变。 （一）近期政策利率持稳，LPR定价基础未变 在年初重定价效应显现下，商业银行净息差快速下行，一季度末商业银行净息差降至1.43%的历史低 位，较上年末大幅收窄9个基点。其中，国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行净息差分别为1.33%、 1.56%、1.37%、1.58%，较上年末分别下降11、5、1、15个基点。 二季度以来，受5月降息影响，利率中枢整体继续下移，资产端贷款收益率仍处于下行通道。央行数据 显示，1-6月，新发放企业贷款加权平均利率大约为3.3%，比上年同期低约45个基点，新发放的个人住 房贷款利率约3.1%，比上年同期低约60个基点。在此背景下，虽然5月存款挂牌利率再度大幅下调，使 得商业银行负债成本得以继续改善，但定期存款占比仍偏高，也制约了存款成本的整体下行空间。 为平衡支持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，商业银行仍需从资负两端协同发力，着力优结 构、稳定价，确保净息差的相对平稳。综合考虑资金 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the market over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - In June, the social financing (社融) stock growth rate was 8.9%, an increase of 0.2% compared to May, with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, which is 0.9 trillion yuan more year-on-year [2][10]. - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by policy factors, particularly the accelerated issuance of government bonds, reflecting a stable growth characteristic [2][10]. - The net financing scale of government bonds in June was 1.35 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 0.5 trillion yuan year-on-year [2][10]. - The total social financing stock reached 430 trillion yuan by the end of June, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9% [2][10]. - For the first half of 2025, the net financing amount of government bonds reached 7.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year [2][10]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loans - In June, corporate short-term loan financing increased significantly, with new loans amounting to 1.77 trillion yuan, which is an increase year-on-year [2][14]. - Short-term loans increased by 1.16 trillion yuan year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans also saw an increase of 1.01 trillion yuan [2][14]. - The total new RMB loans in June were 2.24 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.1 trillion yuan [11][14]. Monetary Supply - The M1 growth rate was 4.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.3%, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year [15]. - M2 grew by 8.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [15]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the improvement in corporate short-term loans and the recovery in M1 growth rates should be monitored for sustainability [3][19]. - There is still room for fiscal expansion, and attention should be paid to the pace of fiscal spending and the repayment situation of large enterprises to assess the sustainability and strength of internal demand recovery [3][19]. - The banking sector is expected to show an overall upward trend, with regional banks performing relatively better [3][19]. - The report anticipates that revenue and profit growth rates for banks may gradually recover due to the positive contribution of deposit repricing to net interest margins [3][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides insights into various economic indicators and industry performance metrics, highlighting trends in liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export orders, which may present investment opportunities and risks in the market. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 1.89%, cement price index down by 1.57%, and iron ore up by 2.47% [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by -1.49% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1268 yuan/ton [5] Industrial Products Chain - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 72.92%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.51 percentage points [6] - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum reached a new high since 2012 [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, with a calculated profit of 3,331 yuan/ton (excluding tax), reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.84% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.24 this week, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 110 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) was 140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,313.70 points, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.18% [9] Valuation Percentiles - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.82%, with the real estate sector showing the best performance at +6.12% [10] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Monetary Supply and Credit Growth - M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year in June 2025, up from 2.3% in the previous period[1] - M2 growth reached 8.3%, marking a return above 8% for the first time in 14 months, compared to 7.9% previously[1] - New social financing (社融) totaled 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, resulting in a growth rate of 8.9%[1] Loan and Deposit Trends - Financial institutions issued 2.24 trillion yuan in new loans, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan, maintaining a loan growth rate of 7.1%[1] - Total deposits increased by 3.21 trillion yuan in June, with household deposits rising by 2.47 trillion yuan and corporate deposits by 1.78 trillion yuan[3] - The growth of effective social financing (excluding government financing) rose to 6.06%, up from 5.98%[6] Market Outlook and Policy Implications - The central bank emphasized the importance of stabilizing social expectations and stimulating market vitality through monetary policy[8] - The central bank aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, avoiding depreciation for competitive advantage[8] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.7% in the second half of the year[41]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and trends in different sectors, highlighting the current state of liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, along with price movements and production metrics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous month [3] - London gold prices increased by 1.94% compared to the previous week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 2.91%, cement price index down by 1.68%, and iron ore up by 3.55% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires changed by -0.54 percentage points, +16.00 percentage points, -0.6 percentage points, and -1.89 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass decreased by 1.47% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1227 CNY/ton [5] - The operating rate for flat glass was 75.68% this week [5] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices increasing by 0.27% and 0.22%, while aluminum prices decreased by 0.91% [6] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 70.41%, down by 7.64 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum reached a record high since 2012 in May [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.91%, with a calculated profit of 3,428 CNY/ton (excluding tax) [7] - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton, with a comprehensive profit of 1,357.4 CNY/ton, down by 5.56% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore reached a near seven-month high at 4.27 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 110 CNY/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 340 CNY/ton, up by 170 CNY/ton [8] - The price difference for small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 140 CNY/ton, down by 26.32% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,342.99 points, down by 1.92% [9] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel was 79.10%, down by 0.50 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [10] - The PB ratios for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB were 37.44% and 69.40% respectively [10] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]