股债风险平价策略

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兴银理财叶予璋:市场进入以大类资产配置为核心的新阶段
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-06-24 13:25
Core Viewpoint - Asset management institutions are shifting towards a diversified asset allocation strategy that includes stocks, bonds, gold, market-neutral strategies, and overseas assets to achieve relatively stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The evolution of China's low-interest-rate environment mirrors that of overseas markets, where initial strategies focused on credit exploration, leverage, and duration have lost profitability due to the narrowing of credit and term spreads [1]. - The current market has transitioned to a new phase centered on diversified asset allocation, which, despite its theoretical effectiveness, is now favored over fixed-income strategies that were previously attractive due to low volatility and high Sharpe ratios [1]. Group 2: Optimal Asset Allocation Criteria - An ideal diversified asset allocation strategy must meet three key conditions: low correlation between assets (below 0.2), the ability to generate returns without relying on market price fluctuations, and immunity to macroeconomic volatility [2]. - Four to five asset classes that meet these criteria include stocks, bonds, commodities represented by gold, market-neutral strategies (quantitative and macro hedging), and overseas assets [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Future Outlook - Asset management institutions need to establish defensive mechanisms to address extreme tail risks, focusing on two dimensions: using derivatives to hedge against interest rate risks and preventing global liquidity tightening or sudden inflation shocks [2]. - In the current low-interest, low-inflation environment, a risk parity strategy between stocks and bonds may become the optimal choice in the next 1-2 years, as the bond market still has downward potential while the stock market is at a valuation bottom with significant upside potential as the economy recovers [2].
应对低利率环境挑战 资管机构寻求资产配置新策略
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-06-19 20:34
Core Insights - Traditional asset allocation strategies are facing significant challenges, prompting a shift towards new asset allocation strategies among various asset management institutions [1] - Experts emphasize the need for diversification in income sources, enhanced risk dispersion, and innovative strategies to adapt to low interest rates and potential market volatility [1] Changing Client Demands - There is a noticeable shift in investor demand towards low-volatility and stable products amid market fluctuations, with a growing interest in passive, global, and alternative investment products [1] - Retail clients, primarily from bank wealth management, exhibit a cautious risk preference influenced by their income sources, leading to a preference for deposit-like products [2] Strategies to Mitigate Volatility - Institutions are advised to adopt diversified asset allocation and long-term investment strategies to counteract potential market volatility [2] - The integration of global asset allocation capabilities and local expertise is crucial for building a robust asset management system that meets client demands for return certainty [2] Identifying New Market Opportunities - In the context of slowing global economic growth and increasing uncertainty, asset allocation strategies are shifting from "beta-driven" to "alpha-extraction," focusing on risk diversification and new market opportunities [3] - The decline in traditional fixed-income asset yields is pushing investors to explore a broader range of assets, including high-dividend equities and alternative investments like REITs and commodities [4] Development of Alternative Investment Strategies - Insurance asset management is rapidly evolving, with a significant focus on new alternative investment businesses, including asset securitization as a strategic pivot [5] - The stock-bond risk parity strategy is anticipated to be an attractive option in the current low-interest environment, leveraging the potential for recovery in the stock market [5]