【环球网财经综合报道】数据显示，截至2026年1月7日，A股市场两融余额达26047亿元，首次突破2.6万亿元大关， 并创出历史新高，单日增长约248亿元。自2025年12月22日以来，短短11个交易日，两融余额累计已增长超过1000亿 元。 报道还提到，展望2026年底，摩根士丹利中国指数（MSCI China Index）预计将从2025年收盘水平上涨20%，达到 100，而沪深300指数(CSI 300 Index)则将达到5200点，涨幅为12%。高盛等多家机构表示："预计2026年的股市收益几 乎完全由盈利驱动，盈利增长将得益于人工智能、走向全球化以及反垄断政策"。 此外，分析师还预计，年内中国内地投资者南向资金对港股的净买入将达到2000亿美元，再创纪录；同时，外国投资 者可能减少对中国的股市空仓，可能推动1000亿美元的资金流入。 彭博社近日发文称，中国股市成交量达到四个月最高点，达2.8万亿元，创2025年9月来纪录，暗示年初反弹仍有空 间。沪深300指数收于四年高位，券商等相关股票涨幅明显；近七成股票在年内前两个交易日上涨，显示出市场活跃 和上涨动力。 ...

北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）11月11日，人民银行官网发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告。其 中提到，沪深指数上涨。9月末，上证综合指数收于3883点，比上年末上涨15.8%；深证成份指数收于 13527点，比上年末上涨29.9%。股票市场成交量和筹资额同比增加。前三季度沪、深股市累计成交 296.9万亿元，日均成交1.6万亿元，同比增长104.6%。前三季度累计筹资1.1万亿元，同比增长383%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the valuation of brokerage stocks cannot be accurately determined solely by the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, as it is influenced by both the P/E ratio and market trading volume, which has a geometric sensitivity to the activity level of the A-share market [1][2] - Brokerage stocks have a unique valuation characteristic where their valuation is significantly affected by market trading volume, as their core businesses, including brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading, are closely tied to market activity [1][2] - When market trading volume increases, brokerage firms experience a rise in brokerage income, more opportunities in investment banking, and enhanced returns from proprietary trading, leading to a potential increase in their valuation [1][2] Group 2 - The sensitivity of brokerage stocks to market activity is geometric, meaning that their valuation can fluctuate significantly based on overall market sentiment, investor participation, and trading volume [2] - A comprehensive assessment of brokerage stock valuation requires considering multiple factors, including P/E ratio and market trading volume, rather than relying solely on financial data and profitability [2] - During active market periods, increasing investment in brokerage stocks can be beneficial, while caution is advised during market corrections to avoid losses from valuation fluctuations [3]