（原标题：香港房地产市场稳步复苏 股市表现与楼市形成共振） 10月8日，在戴德梁行发表的香港房地产市场2025 第三季回顾及展望中，住宅市场交投势头延续，每月 成交量维持超过五千宗，至第三季住宅买卖合约总数达约 16,700 宗，同比大升 63%。 随着资金环境逐步宽松，加上住宅租金回报持续上扬，买家入市意欲提升，支持住宅成交自今年三月份 起一直维持在每月5,000宗以上。 香港通过"高端人才通行证计划"和"优秀人才入境计划"吸引顶尖人才，2024/25学年起公立大学非本地 生比例从20%提升至40%，长期支撑租售市场需求。 经济层面，2025年4月以来恒生指数累计上涨31%，上半年港股IPO集资额达1,070亿港元（同比增 22%），股市表现与楼市形成共振。 香港楼市反转的核心经验显示，人才政策+资金流入+股市联动是关键。申万宏源指出，上海等内地核 心城市正逐步具备类似条件，如"好房子"政策、城市更新、资本配置转向等，可能加速筑底改善。 华创证券强调，内地楼市止跌需依赖经济持续性，而非单纯供需调整，香港通过利率调整与HIBOR联 动稳定市场，这一路径对内地调控政策制定有一定启示。 香港自2024年起全面撤销 ...

金价的强势上涨之际，高盛再度上调黄金目标价。 高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven指出，自8月26日以来黄金17%的涨势主要由两大"粘性"资金流入推动：西方ETF资金流入和央行购买。与此形成对 比的是，波动性较大的投机性头寸保持相对稳定。 西方ETF持仓在9月大幅增长后，目前已完全达到高盛基于美国利率的隐含估值水平，表明近期ETF的强势表现并非过度反应。央行购买力度的重新增强也反映 了夏季淡季过后的反弹。 未来两年涨幅预期保持不变 据追风交易台，高盛将2026年底黄金价格预测大幅上调至每盎司4900美元，较此前预测的4300美元上调600美元，涨幅近14%。这一调整基于自8月26日以来 推动黄金价格上涨17%的"粘性"资金流入，主要来自西方ETF资金流入和央行购买。 对投资者而言，这意味着黄金在未来两年仍有23%的上涨空间，其中央行购买贡献19个百分点，美联储降息带动的ETF持仓增长贡献5个百分点。 粘性资金流入成为关键驱动力 上行风险依然显著 高盛认为，升级后的黄金价格预测风险仍偏向上行，主要原因是私人部门对相对较小的黄金市场的多元化配置可能推动ETF持仓超出基于利率的隐含估值。 央 ...

金价的强势上涨之际，高盛再度上调黄金目标价。 据追风交易台，高盛将2026年底黄金价格预测大幅上调至每盎司4900美元，较此前预测的4300美元上调 600美元，涨幅近14%。这一调整基于自8月26日以来推动黄金价格上涨17%的"粘性"资金流入，主要来 自西方ETF资金流入和央行购买。 对投资者而言，这意味着黄金在未来两年仍有23%的上涨空间，其中央行购买贡献19个百分点，美联储 降息带动的ETF持仓增长贡献5个百分点。 粘性资金流入成为关键驱动力 高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven指出，自8月26日以来黄金17%的涨势主要由两大"粘性"资金流 入推动：西方ETF资金流入和央行购买。与此形成对比的是，波动性较大的投机性头寸保持相对稳定。 西方ETF持仓在9月大幅增长后，目前已完全达到高盛基于美国利率的隐含估值水平，表明近期ETF的 强势表现并非过度反应。央行购买力度的重新增强也反映了夏季淡季过后的反弹。 上行风险依然显著 高盛认为，升级后的黄金价格预测风险仍偏向上行，主要原因是私人部门对相对较小的黄金市场的多元 化配置可能推动ETF持仓超出基于利率的隐含估值。 央行购买的结构性增长主 ...

金价的强势上涨之际，高盛再度上调黄金目标价。 据追风交易台，高盛将2026年底黄金价格预测大幅上调至每盎司4900美元，较此前预测的4300美元上调 600美元，涨幅近14%。这一调整基于自8月26日以来推动黄金价格上涨17%的"粘性"资金流入，主要来 自西方ETF资金流入和央行购买。 对投资者而言，这意味着黄金在未来两年仍有23%的上涨空间，其中央行购买贡献19个百分点，美联储 降息带动的ETF持仓增长贡献5个百分点。 央行购买的结构性增长主要源于2022年俄罗斯储备被冻结后，新兴市场央行继续进行储备多元化的趋 势。高盛的基准情形假设当前官方部门积累的趋势将持续三年。 高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven指出，自8月26日以来黄金17%的涨势主要由两大"粘性"资金流 入推动：西方ETF资金流入和央行购买。与此形成对比的是，波动性较大的投机性头寸保持相对稳定。 西方ETF持仓在9月大幅增长后，目前已完全达到高盛基于美国利率的隐含估值水平，表明近期ETF的 强势表现并非过度反应。央行购买力度的重新增强也反映了夏季淡季过后的反弹。 未来两年涨幅预期保持不变 尽管起始点更高，高盛对2026年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huajian Group's stock reached the daily limit on September 30, 2025, with a price of 28.69 yuan, marking a 10.01% increase, and a total market capitalization of 27.839 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The company has recently implemented over 30 new or revised governance policies, focusing on key areas such as related party transactions, board operations, and information disclosure, which enhances operational efficiency and market image [2] - Huajian Group is strategically transitioning towards urban renewal and digital transformation, establishing dedicated institutions and investing funds to explore new business growth points [2] Group 2: Industry Context - The engineering consulting services industry is closely linked to capital inflow and infrastructure construction, with the potential for increased government investment in urban renewal, presenting development opportunities for the sector [2] - On September 26, 2025, Huajian Group was listed on the "Dragon and Tiger List" with a transaction volume of 946 million yuan, indicating significant interest from retail and foreign investors, which reflects market confidence in the company's future [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite a decline in the company's performance in the first half of the year, the net buying from retail and foreign investors has likely contributed to the stock price increase, offsetting negative factors and driving the stock to its limit on September 30, 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is showing unique investment value due to a combination of factors, particularly driven by policy support and capital inflows [1] - The Chinese government's proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy provide a stable environment for economic growth, benefiting the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Recent policy measures announced by the Chief Executive of Hong Kong aim to attract more companies to list in Hong Kong, enhancing market vitality and providing investors with diverse investment options [1] Group 2 - There is a significant inflow of capital into the Hong Kong stock market, with southbound funds exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, indicating increased demand from mainland investors [1][2] - The attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks has increased for foreign investors due to the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, making it a primary channel for allocating quality Chinese assets [1] - The valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains significantly lower than other major markets, providing potential investment opportunities, especially in the technology sector [2] Group 3 - The industry structure of the Hong Kong stock market is undergoing optimization, with a shift from a finance-dominated market to a more diversified one, particularly in non-essential consumer goods and information technology [3] - The rise of new economic forces allows investors to access emerging companies through the Hong Kong stock market, effectively diversifying market risks and reducing portfolio volatility [3] - The current environment in the Hong Kong stock market is favorable for various types of investors, whether they seek steady long-term growth or aim to capitalize on short-term fluctuations [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a strategic shift in capital flow, with short-term funds targeting bank stocks while growth stocks are being quietly absorbed, driven by a decline in interest rates and a corresponding decrease in discount rates, enhancing the future cash flow value of growth stocks [2] - A notable observation is that despite the overall market not showing significant gains, the trading structure reveals signs of strategic adjustments, with institutions reallocating from dollar-denominated assets to A-shares, particularly those with undervalued valuations [2][4] - The influx of foreign capital is not merely a reaction to the "China story," but rather a pursuit of cost-effectiveness and liquidity opportunities, as highlighted by a macro analyst's perspective on the nature of foreign investment [6] Group 2 - The data on capital flows indicates that while northbound capital net purchases reached a peak in August, the distribution of funds is highly uneven, with a few core industries attracting significant investment, suggesting a targeted approach rather than a broad-based strategy [8] - The valuation gap between A-shares and major Western stock indices has been frequently discussed, with some comparable companies in sectors like semiconductors and new energy showing price-to-earnings ratios that are even 20% lower than their US counterparts, indicating a tangible investment appeal [10] - The market is witnessing a shift from passive acceptance of foreign capital to actively seeking a new balance between passive reception and proactive engagement, as the rhythm of capital inflow becomes clearer [14]

Group 1 - The unexpected U.S. non-farm payroll data of 22,000 jobs significantly reshapes global financial dynamics, indicating a potential shift in capital flows [1][5] - The U.S. unemployment rate has surged to 4.3%, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting a reevaluation of Federal Reserve policies and increasing the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September [5][10] - Domestic policies in China, such as the reduction of public fund fees by over 50 billion yuan, are expected to lower investment thresholds and costs, potentially directing more capital into the stock market, particularly benefiting the ETF market [6][7] Group 2 - The combination of favorable external and internal factors is likely to have a greater impact than their individual contributions, as seen in past market responses to similar policy shifts [7][10] - Technical analysis indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index is close to a critical resistance level of 3,900 points, with a strong upward momentum observed [8][10] - The market appears to be transitioning from despair to hesitation, with recent positive developments reigniting investor confidence and setting a target range of 4,000-4,200 points by year-end [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are expected to see a significant inflow of funds in early next year, driven by a weak dollar, local central bank rate cuts, and historically low allocations from global funds [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Emerging Markets - The anticipated resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with concerns over Trump's tariffs and fiscal policies, is negatively impacting the dollar's performance [5]. - Hedge funds and other speculative investors have placed bearish bets against the dollar, amounting to approximately $5 billion as of early September [5]. - The weak dollar, further rate cut space from local central banks, and historically low allocations to emerging markets are expected to support the asset class [5][6]. Group 2: Performance and Returns - Emerging market bonds have delivered nearly 9% returns this year, outperforming developed market bonds, which have seen a 7.5% increase during the same period [4]. - The dollar index has declined over 8% this year, potentially marking its largest annual drop since 2017 [4]. Group 3: Key Beneficiaries - Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and Poland are identified as major beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows [6]. - Asian local currency bonds are less likely to attract funds due to already low interest rates and the preference of export-oriented economies for weaker currencies [6]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Analysts expect previously cautious global funds to increase their investments in emerging markets, giving these markets a competitive edge over developed markets [7].

一、市场整体表现 今日沪深两市指数震荡整理，成交额保持在万亿元附近。盘面上，贵金属板块成为焦点，黄金、白银等个股普遍上涨，部分公司股价创出阶段新高。 与之相比，消费、医药等板块表现偏弱，市场资金明显向贵金属方向集中。 二、贵金属板块上涨的驱动因素 贵金属板块的上涨主要受到以下几方面影响： 这些因素共同推动了板块的集体走强。 三、国际市场因素解析 国际金价的波动对国内市场影响显著： 这表明，国际市场是影响国内贵金属板块的重要外部变量。 从资金流动看，贵金属板块的交易活跃度明显提升： 这种资金分布，体现出板块的短线特征较强。 五、潜在风险与挑战 尽管贵金属板块集体走强，但仍需注意以下风险： 这提醒市场参与者保持理性。 六、未来观察点 市场后续对贵金属板块的关注，集中在： 这些因素将影响板块能否保持热度。 1. 国际金价走强：近期国际黄金价格突破重要关口，带动相关股票情绪升温。 2. 避险需求提升：全球经济与地缘环境存在不确定性，推动资金配置贵金属。 3. 资金流入明显：部分资金短期流入黄金概念股，推高成交量。 美元走势：美元指数走弱往往利好黄金价格。 利率环境：全球货币政策宽松预期，会提升贵金属吸引力。 避险情绪 ...