美股情绪升至历史较高水平 吴信坤(分析师) 021-38676666 一全球股市立体投资策略周报 7月第1期 登记编与 S0880525040061 本报告导读: 陈菲(分析师) 021-38676666 1上周发达市场表现略优,港股医药涨幅表现强势。2美国非农数据 公布后美联储降息预期延后,海外流动性边际收紧,南向继续流入港 登记编与 S0880525040127 投资要点: 市场表现:上周发达市场表现略优。股市方面,MSCI全球+1.2%, o 其中 MSCI发达+1.3%、MSCI 新兴+0.4%。债市方面,英国 10Y国 债利率大幅上升。大宗方面,银价涨幅居前。汇率方面,美元贬, 英镑贬,日元贬。分板块看,上周港股医药表现最强,美股材料+科 技有完点,欧股日常消费+能源涨幅居前。 交投情绪:上周成交普遍缩量,美股情绪接近历史最高水平。从成 交量/成交额看,上周日经 225 成交放量,恒指、标普 500、欧洲 Stoxx50成交下降。从投资者情绪看,港股投资者情绪环比上升、处 历史高位,美股投资者情绪上升、处历史极高位。从波动率看,上 周港股波动率下降,美股、目股、欧股波动率上升。从估值看,上 周发达市 ...

报告导读： ① 上周日韩股市表现较强，不同市场中能源、科技、防御板块各有表现。 ② 美联储议息会议放鹰致流动性趋紧，南向继续流入港股。 ③美国花旗经济意外指数大幅回 落， 中国、欧洲景气预期有所好转。 市场表现：上周日韩股市表现最佳。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 -0.3% ，其中 MSCI 发达 -0.3% 、 MSCI 新兴 +0.0% 。债市方面，德国 10Y 国债利率上升幅度最大。大宗方面，国际原油价格继续上 涨。汇率方面，美元升，英镑贬，日元贬，人民币升。分板块看，上周美股能源 + 科技板块较优，港股 科技小幅收涨，欧股防御板块更强。 交投情绪：上周全球股市成交分化，其中欧美股市成交放量。 从成交量 / 成交额看，上周恒指成交下 降，标普 500 、欧洲 Stoxx50 成交上升。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比上升、处历史偏高位， 美股投资者情绪上升、处历史高位。从波动率看，上周港股、美股、日股波动率下降，欧股波动率上升， 美债波动率下降。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周下降。 盈利预期：上周全球股市盈利预期多数下修。 横向对比来看，上周欧股 25 年盈利预期边际变化表现最 优， ...

在近几周表现强劲后，他们仍然看淡欧洲股市，投资策略发生变化，相比小盘股，更青睐规模更大、更 成熟的公司。 美国银行策略师们表示，高歌猛进的德国股市对经济增长前景过于乐观。 塞巴斯蒂安·雷德勒（Sebastian Raedler）率领的团队预计，由于全球增长势头减弱，德国股市将再次跑 输大盘。 ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a correction last week, with a risk preference retreating from high levels. The MSCI Global Index fell by 1.9%, with developed markets down by 2.1% and emerging markets down by 0.5% [3][10] - The Hang Seng Index showed the best performance among emerging markets, increasing by 1.1%, while the Korean Composite Index was the weakest, declining by 1.3% [3][10] Sector Performance - In the US market, defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples performed well, while technology sectors faced adjustments. The S&P 500 saw a decline of 2.6% [10] - In the European market, utilities and communication services led with gains of 2.6% and 2.3%, while consumer discretionary and energy sectors lagged behind [10] - The Hong Kong market saw significant gains in the materials and healthcare sectors, with increases of 6.1% and 5.6%, respectively [10] Valuation Trends - Developed markets' overall valuation decreased, with the latest PE and PB ratios at 21.9x and 3.5x, respectively, placing them at the 86% and 97% percentile levels since 2010 [21] - Emerging markets' valuations improved, with PE and PB ratios at 15x and 1.9x, respectively, at the 72% and 85% percentile levels since 2010 [22] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for global markets were mostly revised downwards, with Hong Kong showing a notable upward revision. The Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast was adjusted from 2214 to 2222 [27] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 264 to 263, with the consumer discretionary sector seeing the largest upward revision of +0.2% [27][28] Liquidity Conditions - Global liquidity conditions tightened marginally last week, with macro liquidity indicators showing a mixed trend across regions. The US and China saw interest rates decline, while European rates slightly increased [30] - The tightening of liquidity was reflected in the increase of long-term bond yields in major countries, with the UK, Japan, and the US seeing the largest increases [30] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook showed divergence, with the US economy experiencing a marginal decline in sentiment, as indicated by a drop in the manufacturing PMI to 48.7% [35] - In contrast, the European economy maintained stability, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 49% and service PMI at 50.1%, indicating continued expansion [43]