股息折现模型(DDM)

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股民为什么讨厌“无脑流”资产配置
雪球· 2025-03-12 07:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the psychological barriers investors face when adopting a passive investment strategy like the Brown Permanent Portfolio, which emphasizes equal allocation across various asset classes, challenging the desire for control and predictability in investing [3][10][13]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The Brown Permanent Portfolio's strategy of 25% allocation to stocks, bonds, gold, and cash is based on the premise that even professional investors cannot consistently predict the future, thus advocating for a balanced approach that acknowledges uncertainty [6][11]. - The performance of the Brown Portfolio from 1972 to 2011 shows only four years of nominal losses and a maximum drawdown of 4.9%, highlighting the benefits of asset non-correlation [11][12]. Group 2: Psychological Aspects - Investors often prefer known risks over complete uncertainty, leading them to maintain active investment strategies despite the challenges of market prediction [6][13]. - The article emphasizes that true investment success may not stem from intelligence but from the ability to avoid significant mistakes, with the Brown Portfolio's diversification approach managing risk effectively [13]. Group 3: Practical Implementation - While the Brown Permanent Portfolio is theoretically sound, investors may struggle with its rigid allocation during market fluctuations, suggesting a need for a flexible approach that retains core principles while allowing for adjustments based on objective valuation metrics [15][17]. - A proposed middle ground involves maintaining fixed allocations for gold but allowing for adjustments in stock and bond weights based on valuation indicators, thus balancing the need for flexibility with the benefits of diversification [17][18].