Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The 7th Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, with no incremental policies and a possible intention to correct the "low - price" competition issue. After the meeting announcement, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the energy - chemical sector diverged from crude oil again. Crude oil was short - term strong overnight due to Trump's threat of sanctions against Russia, but the fundamental supply pressure of OPEC+ is increasing, and the North American peak season is ending [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: Trump's remarks on pressuring Russia boosted oil prices short - term. However, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, with supply pressure soaring in the third quarter. The North American peak season from June to August is ending, and the off - season is approaching. US refined oil has been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and crude oil will also shift from low inventory to inventory accumulation [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term rising structure. After increasing positions and breaking through the upper edge of the oscillatory range, the short - term structure is considered rising. The short - term support below is at the 514 level. The strategy for the hourly cycle is to wait and see [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Supply and production are increasing, port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the total inventory is at a historical high compared to the same period. The actual demand has not improved, and new device production is approaching, so the fundamental driving force is bearish [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of styrene shows a short - term declining structure. After rising and then falling today, the hourly form is bearish. There is an opportunity to try short - selling, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: Although the previous precipitation in Hainan and Southeast Asia delayed the supply increase, with the new typhoon moving north, supply increase is still a certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level production is difficult to sustain. The current rubber inventory is also high compared to the same period, so the fundamental driving force is bearish [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. After rising and then falling today, the hourly - level decline is confirmed. The upper pressure is at the 15120 level. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 15120 level [10]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - side device production is increasing, and the output of synthetic rubber has significantly rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level production is difficult to sustain. The recent arrival volume of butadiene at the port is low, providing some support, but the medium - term fundamental pressure of synthetic rubber is still large [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, the hourly - level decline is confirmed. The upper pressure is at the 11950 level. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 11950 level [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The polyester production is continuing to decline, the demand expectation is pessimistic, the supply production is rising, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The cost - end crude oil still has a large expected decline and mainly follows the crude oil fluctuations [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [18]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand change is small, the inventory level is not high, and there is no major short - term fundamental contradiction. However, the cost - end crude oil still has a large expected decline and mainly follows the crude oil fluctuations [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [21]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The downstream demand is sluggish, the supply - side production fluctuates slightly, but the previously overhauled devices will gradually restart and new production capacity will be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to continue. The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [25]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic supply is at a high level compared to the same period, the downstream demand is weak, the short - term arrival volume is normal, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the overseas Iranian device production is stable. The short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to the cost - end and recent sentiment drivers [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol shows a medium - term decline/oscillation, and the short - term shows a declining structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the morning hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [27]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: The supply is increasing, the demand in the off - season is continuously sluggish, the inventory is continuously accumulating, the fundamental driving force is still bearish, and the anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward movement has significantly cooled down today. It should be treated bearishly [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term rising structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the morning hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [30]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The production has slightly decreased, the demand is weak, the port inventory fluctuates at a low level, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The fundamental driving force is weak. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward movement has significantly cooled down today. It should be treated bearishly [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of EG shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [33]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The overhauled devices will gradually restart in late July, the production is rising, the overall downstream demand is at a low level compared to the same period, the demand is weak, and the basis of 09 is weakening. Attention should be paid to the delivery logic. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward movement has significantly cooled down today. It should be treated bearishly [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows an oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [34].