Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including their fundamental logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Most products show a bearish or neutral outlook, with suggestions mainly to hold short positions or wait and see. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ started the second - phase 165,000 barrels/day复产 plan, with an expected large surplus after the first - phase复产. The second - phase复产 combined with the demand shift from peak to off - season will increase supply and decrease demand. South American situation is tense but not significantly worsened, and the fundamental drive is downward [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's rebound is for testing the short - term pressure at 489 (11 contract) [3]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 [3]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: Weekly开工 increased slightly but there are unplanned overhauls. Downstream profits are poor, ABS and EPS开工 decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. After the autumn overhaul peak, new device commissioning in September - October will bring supply pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [6]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and it's a normal repair after the previous sharp drop. Standing above the short - term pressure of 7040 on the 10 - contract challenges the hourly downward structure [6]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with a final take - profit at 7180 [6]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side this year. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices temporarily strong. Imports increased in August. On the demand side, semi - steel tire开工 dropped significantly, while full - steel tire开工 remained high. The current fundamentals are neutral [9]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating structure on the daily chart, upward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating. After the previous technical breakthrough, the hourly level is considered an upward structure, with short - term support at 15880 [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. Supply - side device overhauls led to a drop in开工 and output, and downstream semi - steel tire inventory also decreased. The main contradiction lies in the cost side of butadiene. With the arrival of cargo ships, port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply pressure will gradually materialize in the medium - term [13]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, waiting for the short - term trend structure to be established on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly line closed at the lower edge of the oscillation range. Wait for the night session to verify the downward breakthrough [13]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute small cycle, with a take - profit reference of 11960 on the 15 - minute level [13]. PX - Logic: PX profit recovery and the end of the overhaul peak led to an increase in开工. The overall开工 of PTA decreased, and the previous destocking of PX slowed down. The short - term fundamentals weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [16][19]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly cycle's downward trend has not reversed. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper - edge pressure at 6770 [19]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with the short - term pressure at 4700 [20]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 4700 [20]. PP - Logic: Supply - side开工 increased, and new devices will be put into operation in August - September. Demand entered the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7090 is far. Pay attention to the 15 - minute short - cycle pressure at 6990, and partial take - profit can be done if it breaks through [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic and overseas methanol开工 remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate to a five - year high in September. Downstream demand weakened, and the short - term pressure is huge [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating on the daily chart, short - term downward on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, with short - term pressure at 2435 [27]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with the hourly line 2435 as the final take - profit [27]. PVC - Logic: Previous overhauls ended,开工 remained at a high of 75%. The strong comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali makes it difficult to reduce PVC supply. Inventory accumulated to the highest level in the same period, and demand is hard to improve before the real estate bottoms out [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the downward structure remains unchanged after a rebound. The short - term pressure is at 4965 [31][32]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Port inventory is at a multi - year low, making its fundamentals relatively strong compared to other energy and chemical products. However, with the increase in domestic开工, it is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Short - term is strong, but medium - term is bearish [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 4375 [34]. - Strategy: Convert 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [34]. Plastic - Logic: PE开工 remained stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is average [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7365 is far. First, pay attention to the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure at 7305 [37]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute level, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [37]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution speculation ended, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure entered the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution had no real impact on soda ash supply, and the over - capacity trend continued. High output and high inventory pressure increased since August, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [40]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 1320 [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, supply - side output and开工 decreased due to autumn overhauls and transportation restrictions in Shandong during the parade. After the parade, the supply - side speculation may end. Demand - side exports are at a high level but with falling profits. Domestic non - aluminum demand increased in the early peak season, and alumina demand remained high. Overall, supply and demand are both strong, but supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a five - year high [42]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 2625 [42]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 2625 [42].