1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas market supply concerns are prominent, and the strength of energy products supports chemical prices. The Indonesian government's proposed production - cut plan has led to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners, with the production quota for major miners last month down 40% - 70% from 2025, causing coal prices to rise. European natural gas inventories are at a low level, and crude oil prices were affected by concerns over the possible cancellation of US - Iran negotiations. Overall, overseas factors have supported the chemical industry [2]. - The crude oil market is in a stage of geopolitical premium fluctuations with inventory pressure and oversupply. Strong expectations support pure benzene and styrene. PVC may show a pattern of rising first and then falling, with an overall oscillatory trend [3]. - The outlook for the chemical industry is to be treated with an oscillatory mindset, with the movement of US - Iran relations supporting crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. - **Market News**: On the week of January 30, US gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, diesel inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, and commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels. The refinery capacity utilization rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points. US - Iran nuclear negotiations are scheduled for Friday in Oman [8]. - **Main Logic**: US crude oil inventories decreased last week, and the cold wave's impact was evident. Geopolitical situations continuously disrupt oil prices. The geopolitical premium of crude oil continues to fluctuate due to factors from Russia and Iran. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The fundamentals are in a state of supply surplus, but geopolitical situations may cause frequent potential disruptions to supply expectations, and the geopolitical premium may still fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The disturbance of asphalt raw material supply is expected to ease. - **Main Logic**: Trump's dialogue with Iran and the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela will lead to an abundant supply of asphalt raw materials in the long - term. High profits may drive refineries to switch to alternative raw materials. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. The current asphalt futures price is over - valued compared to other products [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price follows the upward trend of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: US assistance to Venezuela's oil production may lead to a surge in heavy - oil supply, pressuring high - sulfur fuel oil in the long - term. Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation affect fuel oil export expectations and may lead to an increase in fuel oil power generation in Iraq. The substitution of natural gas and photovoltaic for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is a long - term negative factor [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by natural gas price fluctuations. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low [11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. Although it is affected by negative factors, its low valuation makes it follow the movement of crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: The price stops falling and stabilizes, and the negotiation atmosphere warms up. PX will be oscillatory and consolidated in the short term. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are oscillating, and the commodity market is slightly warming up. After a significant adjustment, the PX price has stabilized. The high - supply pressure has been slightly relieved, and the market has a consistent positive expectation [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PX price will oscillate under the guidance of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7,100 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to be consolidated within the range of [300, 330] US dollars/ton [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: Strong expectations but weak reality, the price will be consolidated within a range. - **Main Logic**: The commodity atmosphere has warmed up, and PTA has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current supply - demand pattern is weak and the seasonal inventory accumulation is large, the market has strong long - term expectations [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and consolidated in the short term. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the TA05 - 09 spread and the support level of around 5,100 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract [13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Weak reality but there are still expectations of improvement, and it will be oscillatory and bullish. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have fallen significantly. There is some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand of styrene is tight. Pure benzene, with a low valuation, has become a choice for capital. Although the current inventory pressure is large, there are expectations of inventory reduction during the spring inspection [14][16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and bullish. High inventory needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals are improving, and there are expectations of inventory reduction in the far - month [17]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Seasonal inventory accumulation may start, but the profit is not easy to compress. - **Main Logic**: The price of styrene is oscillatory and bullish. Crude oil prices have stabilized, but there are expectations of weakening supply - demand. However, the profit compression caused by seasonal inventory accumulation may be limited due to export support and frequent overseas disturbances [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and bullish. The height of seasonal inventory accumulation in February is expected to be reduced, and it will return to the inventory - reduction trend in March, being easy to rise and difficult to fall [19]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: There are many near - end arrivals, and the price is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment has slightly warmed up, and the decline of ethylene glycol prices has slowed down. The fundamentals are weak, with a larger seasonal inventory accumulation than in previous years, and the supply pressure restricts the upward price elasticity [20][23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be consolidated within a range. The EG05 contract can be operated within the range of [3,700 - 4,050] yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the EG05 - 09 spread within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton [24]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Downstream factories are on holiday and shut down, and the demand is weak. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment has warmed up, and upstream polyester raw materials have risen slightly. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream production cuts and shutdowns have increased, and the demand is weak [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price follows the movement of upstream products, and the support for processing fees is increasing [26]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - **View**: The inventory structure is optimized, and the profitability of bottle chips remains strong. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw material prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and the commodity sentiment has slightly warmed up. The supply has decreased, and the inventory structure has been optimized, resulting in strong profits for polyester factories [27][28]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price follows the movement of raw materials, and the support for processing fees is increasing. Attention should be paid to the long - PR and short - TA positions [28]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory has returned to the de - stocking stage, and overseas situations have occasional fluctuations. Methanol will be oscillatory within a range. - **Main Logic**: The methanol price was oscillatory and bullish on February 4, 2026. The inland market trading atmosphere has improved, and the inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased. Although the Iranian situation has eased, there is still uncertainty [29][30]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The methanol price follows the fundamentals and is oscillatory and slightly bearish, but the improvement of MTO profits may provide some support [30]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: The order receipt has improved, and the sentiment has warmed up. Urea will be oscillatory and consolidated. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, 2026, the supply of urea was sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural sector was for pre - Spring Festival fertilization, while industrial demand decreased. The inventory continued to decline, and the market sentiment was slightly bullish [31]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a game between production enterprises and downstream buyers, and the market is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [31]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: After a small decline in maintenance, the price of plastic will be oscillatory after a fall. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, the plastic futures price was oscillatory. Oil prices were affected by geopolitical situations, the overall commodity sentiment was weak, the profit of each production method has been repaired, the demand was in the off - season, and there are expectations of macro - consumption policy support [34]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short term [34]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: Downstream sentiment is cautious before the Spring Festival, and PP will be oscillatory after a fall. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, the PP futures price was oscillatory. Oil prices were affected by geopolitics, the commodity market sentiment declined, the profit of each production method has been repaired, the downstream is in the off - season, and there are expectations of macro - consumption policy support [35]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short term [35]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: The spot pressure is not large, and PL will be oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, the PL futures price was oscillatory. PDH maintenance provided some support, the supply increase was limited, the inventory was controllable, and the downstream demand was in the off - season [36]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short term [36]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: The coal import disturbance makes the PVC rebound cautious. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances have subsided at the macro level. At the micro level, short - term "export rush" supports demand, and inventory has decreased. However, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, and the cost has increased due to coal price expectations [37]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, factors such as "export rush", domestic supply - side policy expectations, and coal import disturbances boost PVC sentiment, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the price may rise first and then fall, with an overall oscillatory trend [37]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The demand has improved temporarily, and caustic soda should be observed for the time being. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances have subsided at the macro level. At the micro level, downstream buyers have purchased at low prices before the Spring Festival, and the inventory has decreased. However, the upstream production is still at a high level [37]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment by downstream buyers has relieved the upstream inventory pressure, but the upstream production is still high, so caustic soda should be observed for the time being [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spreads**: The report provides cross - period spreads for multiple varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., including data on the latest values and changes [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts for various varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: It presents cross - variety spreads for different periods of multiple varieties, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the original text for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and plate index (energy index) are provided, along with their latest values, change percentages, and historical price trends [284][286].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation continues to disrupt oil prices, with the geopolitical premium of crude oil fluctuating due to factors related to Russia and Iran. The market should focus on the progress of US - Iran negotiations and India's purchase of Russian oil [2][8]. - Most energy - chemical products have phased support at the expectation level. For example, the cost of asphalt is expected to increase during the reconstruction of heavy - quality raw materials, and pure benzene and styrene are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [3]. - The overall outlook for the energy - chemical sector is to treat it with a volatile mindset, with the movement of US - Iran relations supporting crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. The API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 11.08 million barrels in the week ending January 30. Geopolitical tensions, such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and the approach of Iranian armed vessels to a US - flagged oil tanker, have led to an increase in geopolitical concerns. The US reducing tariffs on India in exchange for India stopping the purchase of Russian oil poses a threat to Russian oil supply in the later period. The outlook is volatile [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. The asphalt futures price is affected by the weakening of crude oil and the expected increase in the supply of distal raw materials due to the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. The current asphalt futures price is over - valued compared with other products. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As the US - Iran negotiations progress, the fuel oil futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. Geopolitical cooling expectations have driven down the fuel oil futures price. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The situation in Iran also has an impact on fuel oil exports and power - generation demand. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term growth of Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weak - volatile trend of crude oil. It is affected by natural gas price fluctuations, and although it faces some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by other fuels, its current valuation is low. The outlook is volatile, and it will follow the movement of crude oil [12]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: The price stops falling and stabilizes, and the negotiation atmosphere warms up. PX will have a short - term volatile adjustment. After the sharp decline in international oil prices, the impact of the cost side weakens. The fundamentals of PX have limited changes, and factors such as short - covering and the approach of the maintenance season support PX. The outlook is that the short - term price will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment [14]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The price fluctuates at a low level, and attention should be paid to the commodity sentiment. After the sharp decline in upstream costs, the decline has slowed down. PTA mainly follows the movement of upstream costs. The spot basis has slightly recovered, and the polyester production reduction has increased, leading to an expected inventory accumulation in the near - term. The outlook is that it will maintain a volatile adjustment in the short term [14]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Although the current situation is weak, there is still an expectation of improvement, and it shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. Recent market changes include a sharp decline in international oil prices, some replenishment demand from downstream before the Spring Festival, and the widening price difference between styrene and pure benzene. The high - inventory situation may limit the increase, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [14][16]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Seasonal inventory accumulation may start, but the profit is not easy to compress. The price of styrene shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. The price is affected by the stabilization of crude oil prices and the expected weakening of supply - demand. However, due to export support, the height of seasonal inventory accumulation is expected to be reduced, and the profit compression is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile and upward - biased, with inventory reduction expected to resume in March [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The near - term arrival volume is relatively large, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large near - term arrival volume, inventory has been accumulating. Although there is an expectation of a decrease in arrival volume from mid - February, and the polyester demand support is insufficient, the price is expected to remain weak in the short term. The outlook is that the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment [20][21]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Downstream factories are on holiday and shut down, and the demand is weak. The short - fiber price follows the movement of upstream polyester raw materials. As the market approaches the Spring Festival, downstream demand is weak, and the short - fiber price maintains a weak - volatile trend. The outlook is that the price will follow the upstream, and the support for processing fees will increase [24][25]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: It follows the cost fluctuations. Upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate, and polyester bottle chips follow the upstream adjustment. The trading atmosphere has declined slightly, and the market is in a situation of having prices but no transactions. The outlook is that the absolute price will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees will increase [26]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: Overseas disturbances have eased, and some Iranian devices have restarted. Methanol is stable with a downward - biased trend. The spot price in Taicang has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The easing of the US - Iran situation and the restart of Iranian devices have increased the expected import volume, putting downward pressure on the futures price. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and although the Iranian situation has eased, there is still uncertainty [28]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: New orders are difficult to follow up, and urea shows a volatile adjustment. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment is not active, and the price is in a stalemate. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing performance and production enterprise order digestion [29]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: The upstream production has increased slightly, and the price has fallen back and then fluctuated. The decline in oil prices, the weakening of the overall commodity sentiment, the limited follow - up of spot prices after the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the plastic price. However, there is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [32]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: Some refinery maintenance has resumed, and PP has fallen back and then fluctuated. Similar to LLDPE, factors such as the decline in oil prices, the weakening of the commodity market sentiment, the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the PP price. There is also an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [33]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: It follows the commodity sentiment and fluctuates. The PDH maintenance still provides some support. The supply increase is limited, and the downstream rigid demand has recovered. The short - term powder profit fluctuates slightly, and the demand support in the off - season is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: There are strong expectations but low valuations, and the pre - holiday rebound should be cautious. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the commodity market sentiment. The "rush for exports" of PVC supports the demand, and inventory has been reduced. However, the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the price may rise first and then fall, showing an overall volatile trend [35]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The upstream losses have increased, and it is advisable to wait and see. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the market sentiment. The decline in the price of liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the losses of chlor - alkali enterprises. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream will reduce production to relieve the oversupply. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and the upstream production reduction risk has increased [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific and complete content for each variety is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, 20 - commodity index, and industrial product index on February 3, 2026, are 2374.28 (- 1.93%), 2707.14 (- 2.40%), and 2290.30 (- 0.97%) respectively [284]. - **Energy Index**: On February 3, 2026, the energy index was 1116.03, with a daily decline of 3.91%, a 5 - day decline of 4.36%, a 1 - month increase of 2.68%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.71% [286].

Oil Market - Oil prices surged significantly on Thursday, with WTI March contract closing at $65.42 per barrel, up $2.21 (3.50%) and Brent March contract closing at $70.71 per barrel, up $2.31 (3.38%) [3][14] - The U.S. Navy has increased its presence in the Middle East, with a total of six destroyers now deployed, alongside an aircraft carrier and three other combat ships [3][14] - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production freeze policy during the upcoming meeting, with major members like Saudi Arabia and Russia reviewing supply policies for March [3][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 4% to 2831 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 increased by 3.09% to 3307 yuan/ton [4][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels (14.71%) to 19.938 million barrels, while Fujairah's inventory increased by 125.8 thousand barrels (12.36%) [4][17] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market remains strong due to recovering downstream demand, but an increase in supply may create pressure in the coming month [4][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2603 rose by 3.39% to 3478 yuan/ton, with domestic asphalt shipments decreasing by 6.6% to 341,000 tons [6][18] - The capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt producers is at 5.7%, down 0.6% week-on-week but up 3% year-on-year [6][18] - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions, with a focus on inventory accumulation [6][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 increased by 330 yuan/ton to 16,690 yuan/ton, with NR and BR contracts also showing gains [7][19] - Global natural rubber production is expected to decline by 10.8% to 1.416 million tons in December, while consumption is projected to rise by 2.9% to 1.307 million tons [7][19] - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with prices influenced by macroeconomic factors [7][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5332 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, while EG2605 closed at 3957 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [8][20] - PX futures closed at 7380 yuan/ton, down 0.16%, with spot prices at $921/ton [8][21] - The polyester sector is facing weak demand, with production disruptions expected to continue [8][21] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang are at 2282 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269/ton [9][22] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [9][22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to ongoing pressure from inventory levels [9][22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are fluctuating, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [10][23] - HDPE and LDPE prices have seen slight declines, while LLDPE prices increased by 99 yuan/ton [10][23] - The market is expected to face inventory accumulation as demand weakens ahead of the Chinese New Year [10][23] PVC - PVC prices are experiencing slight adjustments, with the market remaining under pressure from high supply and slowing demand [11][24] - The overall market sentiment is weak, with expectations of price stabilization in the short term [11][24] Urea - Urea futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1817 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase [12][25] - Supply is expected to rise as production ramps up, but demand is softening ahead of the holiday season [12][25] - The market is likely to remain in a high-level fluctuation range due to seasonal demand pressures [12][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are showing a strong upward trend, closing at 1224 yuan/ton, with a 2.6% increase [13][26] - The market is facing increased supply pressure, with production rates declining slightly [13][26] - Demand is expected to weaken as the holiday approaches, leading to potential inventory accumulation [13][26] Glass - Glass futures prices are stable, closing at 1087 yuan/ton, with a 1.78% increase [14][27] - The market is experiencing steady supply, but demand is beginning to weaken as the holiday approaches [14][27] - Inventory levels are decreasing, which may support prices in the short term [14][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Regarding methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. - In the case of rubber, with a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - Regarding polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. - For PX, currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. - Regarding PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. In the short - term, beware of the risk of processing fee corrections, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to medium - term opportunities to buy on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.99% decline, at 441.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 54.00 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase, at 2643.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 9.00 yuan/ton, a 0.29% decline, at 3116.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.60 million barrels to 426.05 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; SPR replenished 0.81 million barrels to 414.48 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 5.98 million barrels to 256.99 million barrels, a 2.38% increase; diesel inventories increased by 3.35 million barrels to 132.59 million barrels, a 2.59% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.59 million barrels to 24.13 million barrels, a 2.37% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 42.35 million barrels, a 1.83% decrease [1][2][7]. - **Strategy View**: Although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but currently, wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Methanol - **Market Information**: No specific market price information provided. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton, reporting 1788 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy View**: The current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals as a whole rose, and rubber prices rebounded oscillating. Butadiene drove up rubber and butadiene rubber prices. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of chemical long positions by macro funds, expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to naphtha consumption tax policies leading to subsequent production cut expectations, and increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea, with the butadiene inventory in East China ports dropping significantly from 44,600 tons to 34,500 tons. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve; the short - side believes that macro expectations are uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - peak season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, and the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,200 (+300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1,930 (+40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1,930 (+40) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 10,600 (+800) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12,100 (+600) yuan [10][11][12]. - **Strategy View**: With a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, reporting 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 271 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 622 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 308,000 tons (- 3,000), and the social inventory was 1.178 million tons (+33,000) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5930 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 126 yuan/ton, a reduction of 41 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7708 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 86 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was 117.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.85 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a reduction of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 93,500 tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 84 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 29,200 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period [22]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6656 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 81 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline. The LL - PP spread was 209 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan increase from the previous period. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan reduction from the previous period [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, reporting 7508 yuan, the PX CFR increased by 16 US dollars, reporting 923 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity rate of the RMB, the basis was - 69 yuan (+1), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 118 yuan (- 40). The PX operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous period; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and overseas, the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of January were 215,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 340 US dollars (+10), the South Korean PX - MX was 146 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (+15) [28]. - **Strategy View**: Currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, reporting 5448 yuan, the East China spot price increased by 130 yuan, reporting 5285 yuan, the basis was - 78 yuan (- 7), and the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan (+6). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous period. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. In terms of inventory, on January 16, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.045 million tons, a 40

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of oil and gas are rising, and due to the cold snap, coal prices are also strong, providing cost support for chemicals. Chemicals also have some industry benefits. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of spring maintenance, and the market anticipates the possible "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak after the Spring Festival. The futures prices have limited adjustment space and will generally fluctuate [2]. - Crude oil still has the possibility of geopolitical risks, and chemicals should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and oil prices continue to oscillate. Supply pressure persists, but geopolitical premium may fluctuate. It should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term [3][6]. - **Main Logic**: Global on - land crude oil inventories have been accumulating, overseas refined oil inventories are under pressure, and the supply surplus pattern remains. The shutdown of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield supports the Western market. Geopolitics is the short - term focus, and previous military actions between Iran and Israel had little impact on oil supply. If relevant tail risks materialize, oil prices are likely to rise and then fall. If the Iranian situation eases, oil prices may approach the lower limit of the oscillation range [6]. Asphalt - **View**: The high valuation of asphalt is gradually being revised downward, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - term [3][6][7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Venezuela will increase its oil production and exports. The current asphalt market is still trading the reduction of discounts due to the US selling Venezuelan oil at the current price, which supports asphalt costs. However, it will lead to abundant long - term supply, which is a major negative for asphalt. The US - Iran situation has not further escalated, and the decline in crude oil has led to the downward revision of asphalt's high valuation. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high [6]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. Venezuelan oil production growth expectations will long - term pressure high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [3][7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which pressures high - sulfur fuel oil in the long - term. The US - Iran situation has temporarily cooled, and the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has significantly declined. Although Iraq may resume fuel - oil power generation in the short - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle East are long - term negatives for high - sulfur fuel oil. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a cooling trend, but the expansion of the asphalt - fuel oil spread may increase the processing demand for fuel oil [7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely and is expected to oscillate. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high - sulfur fuels, with limited demand space, but its current valuation is low and it follows crude - oil fluctuations [3][9]. - **Main Logic**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude - oil fluctuations. The expected release of Venezuelan oil has led to an increase in the Brent - Dubai crude oil spread and a rebound in the low - high sulfur spread. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9]. PX - **View**: The bottom of polyester load is relatively confirmed, and PX's profitability has stabilized. In the short - term, PX prices will seek upward drivers without new negatives, and PXN is expected to remain in the range of [300, 350] dollars/ton [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Crude - oil prices oscillate in a range, naphtha remains stagnant, and PX strengthened significantly in the afternoon. Macroeconomic利好 policies were successively introduced, boosting market sentiment. There were rumors of individual factories' far - month maintenance plans, which stimulated the market. The bottom of polyester's new - year start - up is confirmed, and PTA's good profitability supports the upstream, so PX's profitability has stabilized after half a month of correction [11]. PTA - **View**: Funds have flowed in again, and TA's profit has expanded. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the TA05 - 09 maintains a positive - spread logic [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are tepid, the commodity - market sentiment is positive, and TA rose rapidly in the afternoon with a large increase in positions and inflow of funds. Fundamentally, the low point of downstream polyester load is confirmed, and demand has bottomed out. Without new negatives, prices are expected to be warm in the short - term. With the rapid rise of futures prices, the basis is expected to be weak overall [12]. Pure Benzene - **View**: Port de - stocking is obvious, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. Short - term high inventory may limit the increase, but there will be a quarterly improvement [13][15]. - **Main Logic**: The East - China pure - benzene port has de - stocked for the first time in two months. Low - price pure benzene and strong downstream styrene have created a market waiting for a rise. Downstream profit - locking has pushed up the price of pure benzene. There is a possibility of the US canceling the 15% tariff on South Korean pure benzene. In the chemical industry, pure benzene, with a relatively low valuation, has become a long - position choice for funds [15]. Styrene - **View**: Supply and demand are tight, and styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term under the repeated stimulation of exports [16]. - **Main Logic**: The strength of styrene comes from export disturbances, geopolitical disturbances leading to rising crude - oil prices, and a positive overall commodity atmosphere. The expected inventory accumulation in January has been reversed, and the non - integrated device profit is relatively high. Before the restart of Sinochem Quanzhou in late January, the supply - demand pattern is favorable [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The main - port inventory continues to accumulate, and ethylene glycol is in a difficult situation. In the short - term, prices will remain in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [17][18]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas imports are still large, and there is obvious seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure. Domestic supply is shrinking slowly, some port inventories are tight, and polyester factories are gradually reducing production, making it difficult to reverse the weak pattern [18]. Short - Fiber - **View**: Short - fiber moderately follows the rise, and profits are compressed. Prices will follow the upstream for adjustment, and processing fees are under some pressure [19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw materials have risen sharply, and short - fiber sales have improved slightly. However, due to the strong short - term cost, short - fiber profits are under pressure, and the absolute price is expected to moderately follow the rise [20]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **View**: Supply continues to compress, and processing fees have a repair expectation. The absolute value will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees at the bottom has increased [21]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw materials rose in the afternoon, and polyester bottle - chips followed the cost increase. The trading atmosphere was good, and the price of polyester bottle - chips will mainly follow the upstream in the short - term, with support for processing fees at the bottom [21]. Methanol - **View**: The inland area remains weak, and there is a long - short game in the coastal area. Methanol will oscillate in a range in the short - term [24]. - **Main Logic**: The inland market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and producers are actively reducing prices to clear inventory. Coastal port high - inventory pressure is significant, and the shutdown of the Zhejiang Xingxing device has further weakened the MTO external - procurement demand. Short - term negatives are stronger than the positives of overseas macro uncertainties [24]. Urea - **View**: New orders at low prices have improved, and urea has stabilized and oscillated. The market has no substantial guiding information, and the trading rhythm is adjusted according to prices. In the short - term, the fundamentals have little change, and it will oscillate [25]. - **Main Logic**: The daily production of urea remains at a high level, and the supply of goods is sufficient. The demand for compound fertilizers and other industries is relatively rigid, and the agricultural demand in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions is also advancing. After several days of price decline, new orders at low prices have improved, and the market has temporarily stabilized [25]. LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Maintenance has slightly decreased, and plastic will oscillate. In the short - term, it will oscillate [29]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. Fundamentally, the pressure has been released, and after the rebound, the profits of various production methods have been repaired. Maintenance has decreased recently, and demand is in the off - season. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and the improvement in inventory and downstream confidence, the downside space is limited [29]. PP - **View**: Maintenance and macro - expectations still provide support, and PP should be viewed as oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term [30]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. The profits of various PP production methods have been repaired, and the upside space is limited. The downstream is in the off - season, and trading volume has decreased recently. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and short - term maintenance support, the downside space is limited [30]. PL - **View**: Supply has tightened, and PL will oscillate. It will oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation still provides support. Individual domestic devices have stopped, and the market supply has tightened again. However, downstream follow - up is weak, suppressing the overall buying rhythm. Enterprises mainly maintain stable prices for sales, and the actual - order price range has little change. Short - term powder profits fluctuate slightly, and downstream demand support in the off - season is limited [31]. PVC - **View**: "Rushing for exports" provides support, and the downside space should be carefully considered. It is expected to oscillate. The cancellation of export tax - refunds and the expected increase in the external - market price may promote short - term export - rushing, but in the long - term, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and the market will be oscillating [34]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the export tax - refund for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st. At the micro - level, short - term "rushing for exports" may promote de - stocking, but long - term supply - demand expectations are still under pressure. Profits have improved, boosting the production willingness of marginal enterprises. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and restocking willingness is poor. Upstream price increases are not conducive to export orders, and the sustainability of this week's export orders needs to be observed. The supply of calcium carbide has decreased while demand has increased, and its price may be boosted. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and its profit is squeezed, and the price is under pressure [34]. Caustic Soda - **View**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it is running weakly. Inventory pressure is large, and with stable costs, profits may still be squeezed, and the market will run weakly [35]. - **Main Logic**: The weak reality of caustic soda continues, and inventory is still accumulating. Alumina marginal - device profits are poor, and production cuts may be slow. Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, and the purchase price has been lowered again. The commissioning of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will marginally boost caustic - soda demand. Non - aluminum start - up is weakening, and the restocking willingness of the middle and lower reaches is not high. Upstream start - up has changed little, and caustic - soda production remains at a historical high. The "rushing for exports" of epichlorohydrin supports the price of liquid chlorine, and the short - term cost of caustic soda may be stable [35]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are given, including the latest values and changes [37]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content, only the variety names are listed. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2414.16, down 0.15%. The commodity 20 index is 2773.48, down 0.23%. The industrial - products index is 2308.47, down 0.34% [281]. - **Energy Index**: On January 20, 2026, the energy index was 1099.40, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day decline of 2.59%, a 1 - month increase of 2.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.18% [283].

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI February contract closing at $57.95 per barrel, down 0.22%, and Brent February contract at $61.92 per barrel, down 0.03% [2][13] - The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still down 43 rigs year-on-year, a decrease of 7.3% [2][13] - India's crude oil imports from Russia are expected to drop to around 1.1 million barrels per day in December, marking a three-year low for Russian oil shipments to India by 2025 [2][13] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained stable at 2473 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil fell by 0.23% to 2977 yuan/ton [3][14] - The first batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export tax rebate quotas for 2026 is set at 8 million tons, unchanged from the previous year [3][14] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, with high-sulfur fuel oil also supported by increased sales of marine fuel oil [3][14] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.47% to 3038 yuan/ton, with stable port arrivals of diluted asphalt [4][15] - Domestic refineries are not expected to be affected by geopolitical events in January, although production is slightly increasing [4][15] - Demand in southern regions remains strong, while northern regions face higher shipping pressures [4][15] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 5 yuan/ton to 15670 yuan/ton, while NR main contract rose by 25 yuan/ton to 12690 yuan/ton [5][17] - The overseas production season is expected to last over a month, with raw material prices still supported [5][17] - Downstream tire demand is weakening, leading to a forecast of price fluctuations for rubber [5][17] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5144 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2605 closed at 3847 yuan/ton, up 0.79% [6][18] - PX futures closed at 7316 yuan/ton, up 0.63%, with spot prices at $894/ton [6][18] - The polyester production load is expected to decline further due to reduced production plans from major manufacturers [6][18] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2182 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $249-$253/ton [7][19] - The shutdown of Iranian facilities is expected to reduce imports in January, while port inventories are anticipated to recover [7][19] - The balance between supply and demand is expected to keep methanol prices stable [7][19] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China are between 6150-6300 yuan/ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [8][20] - Supply is expected to remain high, while demand is weakening, leading to a forecast of low price fluctuations [8][20] - The overall market for polyolefins is driven by weak fundamentals, with significant pressure on inventory transfer to downstream [8][20] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed slight fluctuations, with prices for different grades ranging from 4470-4650 yuan/ton [9][21] - Supply remains high while domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for PVC prices [9][21] - The market is characterized by a weak reality and strong expectations, limiting upward price movement [9][21] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 1743 yuan/ton, up 0.46% [10][22] - Supply levels are declining due to equipment failures, while demand sentiment is improving [10][22] - The market is expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations in supply and demand [10][22] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased, with the main contract closing at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.19% [11][23] - The industry is experiencing a decline in operating rates due to increased maintenance and failures [11][23] - Demand remains weak, but external macroeconomic factors are providing some support to prices [11][23] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a strong increase, with the main contract closing at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.23% [12][24] - The supply of glass is expected to decrease as production lines are being shut down for maintenance [12][24] - Demand is gradually improving, but the overall market remains cautious due to weak end-user demand [12][24]

Oil Market - WTI and Brent crude oil futures closed higher, with SC2602 at 444.7 CNY/barrel, up 1.7 CNY/barrel, a 0.38% increase [12] - Russia's oil and condensate production is expected to remain stable at approximately 516 million tons, or about 10.32 million barrels per day, for 2024 [12] - ING forecasts an oil surplus exceeding 2 million barrels per day by 2026 due to OPEC+ gradually lifting supply cuts [12] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 rose by 0.61% to 2489 CNY/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2603 increased by 0.33% to 3016 CNY/ton [13] - Fujairah fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.247 million barrels (17.38%) to 10.681 million barrels [13] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to see a decline in imports from Western markets for the first time in three months, providing some support [13] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2602 increased by 0.17% to 2995 CNY/ton [14] - Domestic asphalt production is projected to be 2 million tons in January 2026, a decrease of 15.8 thousand tons (7.3%) month-on-month [14] - Despite strong cost support due to geopolitical tensions, weak terminal demand is hindering refinery shipments [14] Rubber - The main contract for rubber RU2605 rose by 80 CNY/ton to 15730 CNY/ton, while NR main contract also increased by 80 CNY/ton to 12695 CNY/ton [15] - Thailand's natural rubber exports totaled 4 million tons in the first 11 months, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15] - Domestic rubber production is entering a cessation period, with expectations of continued raw material price declines [15] PX & PTA & MEG - TA605 closed at 5152 CNY/ton, up 1.14%, while PX futures closed at 7358 CNY/ton, up 0.88% [16] - The operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 72.15%, a slight increase of 0.18% [16] - Demand is in a seasonal downturn, with limited price support expected for PX and TA [16] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang are at 2145 CNY/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from 246 to 250 USD/ton [17] - Domestic production remains stable at high levels, while Iranian supply is low [17] - The overall demand for methanol is expected to weaken, leading to price stability at the bottom [17] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China are between 6050 and 6250 CNY/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [18] - PE prices have decreased compared to last week, with HDPE at 7011 CNY/ton, down 177 CNY/ton [18] - Overall, the polyolefin market is expected to maintain a volatile performance due to weak fundamentals [18] PVC - PVC prices in East China are stable, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4440 to 4580 CNY/ton [19] - Domestic real estate construction is expected to slow down, leading to a gradual decrease in demand for pipes and profiles [19] - The overall market is expected to remain weak, with prices stabilizing at the bottom [19] Urea - Urea futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1740 CNY/ton, a 0.46% increase [20] - The industry daily production is at 193,200 tons, with a slight increase of 130 tons [20] - Market expectations for January's pricing results and export policy changes are influencing price stability [20] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1184 CNY/ton, a 0.51% increase [21] - Industry operating rates and production have decreased, while inventory levels are also declining [21] - The market is entering a phase of negotiation, with both supply and demand showing signs of decline [21] Glass - Glass futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1047 CNY/ton, a 0.38% increase [22] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market is 1076 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease [22] - The market is experiencing a balance of supply and demand, with limited driving forces for price movements [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and the Middle East are continuously disturbing the crude oil market, causing oil prices to fluctuate. Different raw materials have varying impacts on downstream chemical products. The market has entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds, with extreme price differences among some varieties, and there is a possibility of reverse fluctuations due to capital disturbances. The inventories of three major liquefied chemical products (EB, BZ, and EG) have all increased on a month - on - month basis [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, including the US's intensified blockade of Venezuela, the key stage of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations, and potential Israeli attacks on Iran. Coal inventories are high due to lower - than - expected seasonal demand. The different performances of raw materials have implications for downstream chemical products [2]. - After the main contracts shifted to the 05 contracts, the market entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds. Polyolefins are considered for short - selling, while PX is favored for long - buying. The inventories of EB, BZ, and EG have all increased, with BZ inventory increasing by 5% month - on - month, and BZ and EB port inventories at a five - year high, and EG inventory approaching the five - year median [3]. 2. Performance of Each Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and other regions continue to disturb the market, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: Overseas refined oil inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the pressure of crude oil inventory is mainly reflected in floating storage. The supply - surplus situation persists. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term price fluctuations, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low [4][8]. - **Outlook**: The supply - surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations are unstable. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate near the annual low in the short term [8]. Bitumen - **Viewpoint**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again, and bitumen futures prices have risen. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The situation between the US and Venezuela has driven up bitumen futures prices. If there is a substantial supply disruption, bitumen futures prices will be strong; otherwise, they may fall after rising. The pricing of bitumen futures has returned to Shandong spot prices, and the high valuation of bitumen is being revised downward. Bitumen is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still great pressure on inventory accumulation [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of bitumen is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors have driven up the futures prices of high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to a rebound in high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces for high - sulfur fuel oil (Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and Palestine - Israel conflict) are currently weak, and fuel oil demand is still weak [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. It has strong product attributes but faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Domestically, the pressure on refined oil supply is increasing, which may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in an increase in supply and a decline in demand. Overseas, unexpected maintenance and unstable operation of some refineries have led to an unexpected decline in supply and an increase in valuation [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The situation in coastal and inland areas is relatively stalemate, and methanol is expected to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The inland market is weak, with high freight rates and general downstream follow - up. Although Iranian imports are expected to decrease in the long term, coastal port inventories are still at a historical high, and the arrival volume may be high in the short term. The trading logic in coastal areas is unclear, and the unloading rhythm of arriving ships may be a key variable [30]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [30]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On December 22, 2025, the urea supply was affected by gas restrictions and maintenance, and the operating rate fell below 80%. However, due to the new production capacity put into operation throughout the year, the daily output was still above 190,000 tons, maintaining pressure on the market. On the demand side, there is still support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection, but the downstream's acceptance of the increased price is low, and the actual follow - up is cautious [31]. - **Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and may weaken. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories [31]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: There is still room for an increase in the load, and the spot circulation remains loose. - **Main Logic**: With the restart of some devices, the supply has increased again, and there are expectations of increased production from other devices. The overall spot circulation of ethylene glycol remains loose, and the inventory accumulation period is expected to last until February. The market sentiment needs time to recover, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [22][24]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [24]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by sentiment, PX maintains a strong consolidation, and profits continue to expand. - **Main Logic**: The market is optimistic about the medium - and long - term pattern of PX, and bullish funds continue to bet. Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, and the resonance of cost and sentiment has led to the continued rise of PX and the expansion of PXN. Currently, the industrial chain profits are overly concentrated upstream, squeezing the cash flow of PTA and polyester. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts or early holidays in the polyester industry [13][14]. - **Outlook**: PX is expected to consolidate strongly under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. PXN is expected to fluctuate within the range of [300, 380] US dollars per ton. The positive spread logic of PX remains [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: With cost support, the outlook is positive, and the processing margin on the futures market has been significantly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX is still strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is still tight, and the export data in November was good, boosting market confidence. The BIS certification cancellation has a continuous positive impact, and it is expected that the export performance in December will still improve. PTA is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is less than in previous years. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly following the cost, and the processing margin will operate within a range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract at low prices and take profit at around 5100. A positive spread strategy can be adopted for TA05 - 09 [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The upstream cost support has strengthened, but the cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials are rising, providing cost support for polyester short - fiber. However, the downstream's willingness to accept high prices is low, resulting in poor sales of polyester short - fiber. The cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed due to the off - season expectation [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing margin has increased. The position of going long on TA and shorting PF should be closed for profit [26]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream raw material cost supports the price. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories have mostly raised their prices. The trading volume in the polyester bottle - chip market is acceptable. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing margin has increased [27]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance supports PL to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance still provides support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer is stable, with only a few prices slightly adjusted downward. The downstream buying is cautious, and there is no significant change in trading. In the short term, the profit of powder is under pressure, and the decline in the operating rate has a negative impact [35]. - **Outlook**: PL is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of maintenance supports PP to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The profit of PDH is under short - term pressure, and the valuation support of gas - based refineries has increased, with a strong expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect the short - term price of oil, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is still great downward pressure in the next quarter. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The current trading of maintenance is mainly focused on the expectation for January 2026, and the actual supply pressure is still large, with high inventory [34]. - **Outlook**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The support of maintenance is limited, and plastic fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and geopolitical factors affect the short - term price. There is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is great downward pressure in the next quarter. The fundamental support of plastic itself is still limited, with limited pressure on the profits of oil, coal, and ethane production, and a weaker expectation of supply reduction compared to PP. The upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the price. The overall demand for plastic is entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the short - term increase in downstream trading volume is questionable [33]. - **Outlook**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [33]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: New export transactions and a strong aromatic atmosphere have led to the intraday rise of styrene. - **Main Logic**: Recently, styrene has been fluctuating weakly. The downstream ABS has shown negative feedback, with some enterprises reducing their loads. The liquidity of styrene has increased, and the basis and profit have weakened. In the short term, the support comes from the external pure benzene, while the upper limit is restricted by the pure benzene inventory pressure and the shift of styrene to inventory accumulation [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Styrene is about to shift to inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in reducing inventory and still faces great pressure. The upper limit is obvious, and export transactions will stimulate short - term rebounds [21]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and the futures market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, the supply - demand situation of PVC has improved marginally due to overseas capacity withdrawal and domestic marginal enterprise production cuts, but the over - supply expectation cannot be reversed. The domestic production may remain stable, the downstream operating rate is seasonally weak, the export orders are good this week, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [37]. - **Outlook**: The de - stocking driven by production cuts will probably limit the rebound space of PVC. The over - supply situation cannot be reversed in the medium term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [37]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda may fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, although the short - term de - stocking in Shandong has occurred, if the alumina production is reduced and the upstream maintains a high operating rate, the supply - demand of caustic soda will still be in excess. The profit of marginal alumina devices is poor, the inventory of Weiquan is high, the demand for caustic soda will be boosted by the new alumina project in Guangxi in Q1 2026, the non - aluminum operating rate is weak, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is low [39][40]. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the upstream in Shandong is de - stocking. However, the supply - demand is under pressure in the long term, and the market may wait and see [40]. 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX decreased by 86 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread of PP decreased by 15 yuan per ton [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different changes. For example, the basis of bitumen decreased by 76 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt was 54,100 lots [43]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads have also changed. For example, the 1 - month spread of PP - 3MA decreased by 104 yuan per ton, and the 1 - month spread of TA - EG increased by 157 yuan per ton [45]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the given text for in - depth analysis of this part. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of the commodity index all showed different degrees of increase on December 22, 2025. The comprehensive index increased by 1.10%, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.34%, and the industrial products index increased by 0.79%. The energy index increased by 2.32% on the day, 1.47% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.08% in the past month, and decreased by 10.72% since the beginning of the year [284][285].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

Oil Market - Oil prices declined on Tuesday, with WTI January contract closing at $58.64 per barrel, down $0.68, a decrease of 1.15% [2][17] - Brent February contract closed at $62.45 per barrel, down $0.72, a decrease of 1.14% [2][17] - Russian oil product exports from Tuapse port are expected to increase to 1.123 million tons in December, a 21.4% increase from the initial plan of 895,000 tons per day in November [2][17] - OPEC+ members will begin annual oil production capacity assessments starting next year, which will inform production quotas for 2027 [2][17] - Despite cautious production increase plans from OPEC+, limited support for oil prices is anticipated, with expectations of continued price fluctuations [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.2% to 2469 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil rose by 0.63% to 3035 yuan per ton [18][19] - The closure of the arbitrage window between East and West is expected to reduce the volume of low-sulfur fuel oil arriving in Singapore in December [18][19] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to face ample supply due to stable demand [18][19] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 2.41% to 2916 yuan per ton [20] - November showed weak supply and demand characteristics, with total domestic asphalt supply expected at 2.53 million tons, a 15.2% decrease month-on-month [20] - Supply is expected to decrease further in December, but the decline may be limited due to low demand in northern regions [20] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 110 yuan per ton to 15360 yuan per ton [21] - Global natural rubber production is forecasted to increase by 2.7% in October to 1.496 million tons, while consumption is expected to decrease by 4.2% [21] - The rubber market is anticipated to remain volatile due to weak supply and demand fundamentals [21] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4752 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, while EG2601 closed at 3877 yuan per ton, down 0.13% [22] - PX futures closed at 6912 yuan per ton, down 0.26%, with spot prices at $851 per ton [22] - Downstream demand is gradually weakening, with polyester production remaining resilient but lacking strong momentum [22] Methanol - Methanol prices showed slight fluctuations, with Taicang spot prices at 2132 yuan per ton [22] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decline in December, while import volumes are anticipated to decrease from high levels [22] - Overall, methanol prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with a focus on strategies involving methanol and polyolefins [22] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China range from 6320 to 6500 yuan per ton, with various production margins reported [23][24] - Supply is expected to increase as previously shut facilities resume operations, while downstream orders are anticipated to weaken [24] - The market is expected to experience bottom-side fluctuations if crude oil prices remain stable [24] PVC - PVC market prices in East China showed a slight upward trend, with various grades priced between 4480 and 4700 yuan per ton [25] - Supply is expected to grow as maintenance periods for enterprises are low, but demand from the real estate sector is anticipated to weaken [25] - PVC prices may trend towards the bottom due to improved basis and reduced export barriers [25] Urea - Urea futures prices remained stable, closing at 1687 yuan per ton, with slight fluctuations in the spot market [26] - Supply levels are gradually decreasing as some gas-based enterprises reduce output [26] - Demand remains supported by essential needs and reserve requirements, with expectations of continued price fluctuations [26] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated, closing at 1183 yuan per ton, with stable spot market prices [27] - Supply is expected to increase as more facilities resume operations, while demand remains focused on low-price replenishment [27] - The market is expected to remain in a bottom range due to weak driving factors [27] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a slight decline, closing at 1034 yuan per ton, while the spot market remained firm [28] - The industry is experiencing frequent changes in production lines, with stable daily melting capacity [28] - Demand remains positive, but new driving factors are limited, leading to a slight market sentiment decline [28]