1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fluctuated downward. The WTI February contract closed down $0.13 at $57.95 per barrel, a 0.22% decline; the Brent February contract closed down $0.02 at $61.92 per barrel, a 0.03% decline; the SC2602 contract closed at 437 yuan per barrel at night, down 1.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.36% decline. As of December 30, the total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still 43 less than the same period last year, a 7.3% decrease. Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, but may increase in January. Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% this year and are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed flat at 2473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 closed down 0.23% at 2977 yuan per ton. China's first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas for 2026 is 8 million tons, the same as last year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market will have sufficient supply from January to February, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate with oil prices, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts may put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.47% at 3038 yuan per ton. The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports is currently stable, and refinery raw material supply in January is not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Production increased slightly at the end of the year, but the production schedule for January is low. There is still some demand in the south, while the north has more inventory demand. Asphalt prices may fluctuate with oil prices and may be stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed up 0.43% at 5144 yuan per ton, EG2605 closed up 0.79% at 3847 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 603 closed up 0.63% at 7316 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi has restarted. PX faces a game between reality and expectation, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate after a rebound [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 5 yuan per ton to 15670 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12690 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 35 yuan per ton to 11565 yuan per ton. With easing precipitation in the production areas and fading downstream tire demand, rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2182 yuan per ton. Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in January arrivals, but MTO plant loads are also decreasing. Port inventories have rebounded, and methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6150 - 6300 yuan per ton. Polyolefin production will remain high, while downstream orders and starts are weakening. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East China were mixed, with some prices in North China rising and those in South China stable. PVC supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, spot price change rate, futures price change rate, basis change, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on December 31, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The US EIA inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. As of the week of December 19, US crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. Refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. - Under US sanctions, Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching a three - year low in 2025, but are expected to increase in January [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 through various charts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28][29]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][31][32][35][36][37][39][40][41][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the historical spreads between different contracts for energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [60][61][62][63][64][65][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [69][70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Serves as the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyzes crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. With in - depth industry research and many awards, she often publishes views in the media [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Focuses on natural rubber and polyester research. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyzes methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, he holds a CFA Level 3 certificate [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to maintain an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - The uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US military strikes in Nigeria may impact the oil market. The increase in US oil inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also affect the oil price trend [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different energy and chemical products vary. For example, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil has some support; asphalt supply and demand are in a state of short - term stability and long - term uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose. WTI February contract closed up $1.34 to $58.08 per barrel, a 2.36% increase; Brent February contract closed up $1.30 to $61.94 per barrel, a 2.14% increase. SC2602 night - session closed at 436.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.3 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and military strikes in Nigeria raised concerns about supply, but the increase in US inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also had an impact. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, the market trading was light, and oil prices were expected to continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remained stable, and high - sulfur fuel oil had some support. Singapore was expected to receive more low - sulfur blending components, increasing local inventories. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU might follow the oil price, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts might put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The arrival of diluted asphalt in ports was stable in the short term, and domestic refinery raw material supply in January was not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Supply was expected to increase slightly at the end of the year but decrease in January. The demand in the southern region still had a tail - end effect, while in the north, it was mainly for stocking. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 prices declined on Monday. PX futures and spot prices also fell. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some polyester plants had device maintenance plans, and the MEG port inventory increased. The PX market was in a game between reality and expectation, and the ethylene glycol price was expected to oscillate after a rebound [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts declined. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The precipitation in the producing areas eased, and the peak - production season overseas had about one more month. The raw material price had some support, but the downstream tire demand weakened. The rubber price was expected to oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol spot prices in different regions were reported. The Iranian device shutdown would lead to a decline in arrivals in January, but the MTO device load also decreased. The port inventory increased as the unloading speed recovered. Methanol was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the prices of polyolefin products were given. The supply would remain at a high level, and the downstream demand was weakening. The polyolefin market was expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in different regions increased. The supply was at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand slowed down. The PVC market was a weak - reality and strong - expectation structure, and the price was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 29, 2025 and December 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in Florida to discuss a proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace agreement", but they did not reach an agreement on key issues such as territory and economic reconstruction. Russia planned to re - evaluate its position in the peace talks [10]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week. As of December 19, US crude inventory increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and the inventory at the Cushing delivery center increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. The refinery processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [12][13][14][18][20][22][25][26][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [29][34][35][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Price Spreads**: The report provides the price spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][49][51][53][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Price Spreads**: The report shows the price spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external market, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [57][59][68]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） | | 周三，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2603 收跌 0.08%，报 2480 元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2603 收涨 0.47%，报 3014 元/吨。据 | | | | 金联创开工率计算公式显示，截至 12 月 24 日，中国地炼常减压 | | | | 开工率为 70.75%，较上周跌 0.19 个百分点。从基本面看，低硫燃 | | | | 料油市场结构小幅走强，高硫燃料油市场也稍有支撑。由于前期 | | | 燃料油 | 套利经济性不佳，预计 12 月来自西方市场的低硫燃料油到货量将 | 震荡 | | | 出现三个月来的首次下降，对低硫燃料油市场稍有支撑；但套利 | | | | 货流入量可能在 1 月再次反弹，亚洲低硫燃料油市场预计在整个 | | | | 1 月乃至可能延续到 2 月都将保持供应充足。高硫端，尽管即期 | | | | 供应充足，但良好的下游船用燃料需求为市场基本面提供一些支 | | | | 撑。上周高、低硫仓单均有注册，短期 FU 和 LU 绝 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元至 | | | | 58.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.31 美元 | | | | 至 62.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.50%。SC2602 以 442.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 0.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.14%。受圣诞假期影响，贝克休斯本周提前三 | | | | 天发布钻机数量报告。数据显示，截至 12 月 23 日当周，作为未 | | | | 来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 3 座，至 545 座，但仍较上 | | | | 年同期减少 44 座，降幅为 7.5%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻 | | | 原油 | 机数增加 3 座，至 409 座；天然气钻井数持平于 127 座。美国商 | 震荡 | | | 务部经济分析局公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国 | | | | GDP 环比按年率计算增长 4.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the crude oil market has replaced geopolitical concerns, leading to a lack of support for oil prices and continuous price declines. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of WTI January contract closed down $0.62 to $56.82 per barrel, a decline of 1.08%. The Brent February contract closed down $0.56 to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.92%. SC2601 closed at 430.2 yuan per barrel, down 6.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.58%. In November, the output and processing volume of industrial crude oil above designated size increased year - on - year. Kazakhstan increased oil supply to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and the delivery of new mooring points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal was advanced. The supply - side pressure led to a continuous decline in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.11% to 2417 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 rose 1.08% to 3005 yuan per ton. The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage arrivals from the Western market in Singapore are expected to decrease in December, the inventory in November increased significantly, and the supply from the Middle East in recent weeks has been substantial. The demand for marine bunkering is relatively stable, and the decline in high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profits may boost the demand of Asian refineries for high - sulfur fuel oil raw materials in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.54% to 2963 yuan per ton. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to concerns about future raw material shortages, making the market relatively firm. Currently, refinery raw materials are relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand for asphalt in China shows significant north - south differentiation. It is expected that asphalt may remain stable in the short term under the weak oil price, but there is also a possibility of price decline [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4696 yuan per ton on Monday, up 1.78%. EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan per ton, up 0.66%. The inventory of MEG in the East China main port area increased by 2.5 tons to about 84.4 tons on December 15. A 260,000 - ton PX device in Japan restarted as planned. The cost - side oil price decline and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand will drag down prices. Some ethylene glycol devices are in a loss state and have stopped for maintenance, but new devices are in the production - preparation stage, increasing supply pressure [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15200 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 30 yuan per ton to 12360 yuan per ton. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the US increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The weather in overseas production areas has improved, and raw material prices have rebounded. It is expected that rubber futures prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2105 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level volatility, and the supply from Iran is expected to decline. The demand from the olefin sector is expected to weaken. Although the inventory has decreased significantly in the short term, there may be a rebound later. It is expected that methanol prices will remain at the bottom and fluctuate [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 6170 - 6400 yuan per ton. The production of polyolefins will remain at a high level, while downstream orders and production starts will gradually weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term decline space of futures is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply of PVC has decreased in routine maintenance this week but increased in sudden production cuts. The production is expected to increase slightly next week. The domestic real estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. It is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on December 15 and 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that he had a "very good conversation" with European leaders about the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it seems that a "peace agreement" is closer to being reached, which may increase Russia's oil supply in the future. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the production and processing volume data of industrial crude oil above designated size in November and from January to November [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][16][17][19][21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][33][34][37][38][39]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [41][43][47][50][53][55]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][62][59][69]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and other product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol and other product analyst Peng Haibo, with their work experience, achievements, and professional qualifications introduced [71][72][73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy - chemical commodities market is weak, with most varieties showing an oscillating trend. Crude oil prices continue to decline due to increased expected global supply surplus and geopolitical factors; fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to maintain low - level oscillations [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. WTI January contract closed down $0.63 to $58.25/barrel, a 1.07% decline; Brent February contract closed down $0.55 to $61.94/barrel, a 0.88% decline; SC2601 closed at 443.4 yuan/barrel, down 5.9 yuan/barrel, a 1.31% decline. EIA raised the forecast of US oil production in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a record high. In 2026, the forecast was lowered by 50,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. The market is expected to be in a state of oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 2.34% at 2,418 yuan/ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 closed down 1.7% at 3,014 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to factors such as replenishment of blending raw materials, increased inflow of arbitrage goods, and weak downstream demand. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is also under pressure due to sufficient arrival of arbitrage vessels and high inventories at ports. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.41% at 2,943 yuan/ton. Refinery winter storage policies are gradually being implemented. It is estimated that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years, between 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; EG2601 closed at 3,691 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. PX futures main contract 601 closed at 6,780 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The polyester market is expected to oscillate due to factors such as weak downstream demand and cost pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 80 yuan/ton to 14,985 yuan/ton, NR main contract rose 15 yuan/ton to 12,080 yuan/ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 10,450 yuan/ton. Due to improved weather in overseas producing areas, falling raw material prices, and insufficient demand support, the futures price is under pressure and expected to oscillate [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,075 yuan/ton. Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the significant destocking time may be postponed. Methanol prices are expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6,190 - 6,450 yuan/ton. Supply will remain high, while downstream orders and starts will weaken marginally. Polyolefins are expected to gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but due to low valuations, they are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the price of the East China PVC market was adjusted downward. Supply is expected to decline slightly this week, and domestic real - estate construction will gradually slow down, leading to a decline in the start - up rate of pipes and profiles. The PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data for multiple energy - chemical varieties on December 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA stated in its monthly short - term energy outlook report that the expected global supply surplus is increasing. US oil production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, with an upward adjustment of 20,000 barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day. In 2026, it is expected to decline by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [9]. - After talks in London, Ukrainian President Zelensky will share a revised peace plan with the US. The G7 and the EU are discussing replacing the price cap on Russian oil exports with a comprehensive shipping service ban [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][17][19][21][24][25][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][29][34][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [41][43][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as the internal - external spread of crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, the fuel oil/asphalt ratio, the BU/SC ratio, the ethylene glycol - PTA spread, the PP - LLDPE spread, and the natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][61][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, a finance master. She has won several awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC, an engineering master and an intermediate economist. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level III exam [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices, and the overall oil price continues to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply. The price of fuel oil is expected to remain weak due to the relatively pessimistic view on oil prices in December [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI January contract closed up 0.31 dollars to 58.95 dollars/barrel, a 0.53% increase; Brent February contract closed up 0.22 dollars to 62.67 dollars/barrel, a 0.35% increase; SC2601 closed at 450.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.6 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase. US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week, while the Cushing crude inventory decreased. Refinery processing volume and capacity utilization increased. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: The spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 3, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The expectation that US and Western sanctions on Russian crude oil exports cannot be lifted in the short term has supported oil prices. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][22][25][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][33][34][36][37][38]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - commodity contracts for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil (internal - external spread, B - W spread), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [71][72][73][74].

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心回落，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘下跌 0.68 美元至 58.64 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.15%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘下跌 0.72 美元至 62.45 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.14%。SC2601 以 449.9 元/桶收盘，下跌 3.4 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为 0.75%。地缘方面，俄总统普京和美国特使威特科夫举 | | | | 行会晤。此前，美乌代表团围绕美方提出的俄乌"和平计划"在 | | | | 美国佛罗里达州举行会谈。美国国务卿表示，双方在日内瓦会谈 | | | | 基础上又取得一些进展，但"有更多工作要做"。乌克兰总统泽 | | | | 连斯基表示，当天的谈判"具有建设性"，对所有议题都进行了 | | | 原油 | 坦诚讨论，以确保乌克兰主权和国家利益。俄罗斯黑海 Tuapse 港 | 震荡 | | | 的石油产品出口量预计在 12 月增至 112.3 万吨，较 11 月最初计 | | | | 划的 89.5 万吨/日增长 21.4%。与此同时，根据 ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on the global market for food and beverage cellulase enzymes, analyzing market size, growth trends, and competitive landscape from 2020 to 2031 [2][3][4]. Market Overview - The global food and beverage cellulase enzyme market is segmented by product type and application, with projections for market size in 2020, 2024, and 2031 [3][4]. - The report highlights the overall development status of the food and beverage cellulase enzyme industry, including key characteristics and influencing factors [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The report provides market share and rankings of major companies in the food and beverage cellulase enzyme sector based on sales volume and revenue for the years 2022 to 2025 [4][5]. - It includes a detailed analysis of the top five manufacturers' market shares in 2024 and their competitive positioning [5][6]. Regional Analysis - The report analyzes the supply and demand dynamics of food and beverage cellulase enzymes in major global regions, including North America, Europe, China, Japan, Southeast Asia, and India, with forecasts for production and revenue [5][6][7]. - It also examines the market size and growth rates for these regions from 2020 to 2031 [5][6]. Product and Application Segmentation - The report categorizes the food and beverage cellulase enzymes by product type and application, providing insights into sales volume and revenue trends [6][7]. - It forecasts the market share and growth rates for different product types and applications from 2020 to 2031 [6][7]. Industry Trends and Drivers - The report discusses the key trends and driving factors influencing the food and beverage cellulase enzyme industry, including technological advancements and regulatory impacts [8][9]. - It includes a SWOT analysis of Chinese companies in the sector, highlighting strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats [8][9]. Supply Chain Analysis - The report outlines the supply chain dynamics of the food and beverage cellulase enzyme industry, including procurement and production models [9][10]. - It identifies key raw materials and their supply situation, as well as customer analysis across different applications [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices closed down. The macro - non - farm data was below expectations, pressuring the market. European ARA hub inventory data showed mixed trends. The market is fragile and sensitive to negatives, and oil prices are expected to continue oscillating [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. Singapore's October sales data showed growth and decline in different types. In November, sufficient inventory will suppress the low - sulfur market, while the high - sulfur market has relatively healthy downstream demand, and prices are expected to be weak [3] - **Asphalt**: The futures price rose on Thursday. Supply may decline slightly in the short - term due to profit reduction, and downstream demand is limited due to weather, so the price is treated with a bearish view [3] - **Polyester**: Futures prices of related products fell. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations. With the improvement of the PTA fundamentals, its price is expected to oscillate strongly, while the ethylene glycol has short - term supply improvement but medium - term inventory pressure, and its price will adjust widely [5] - **Rubber**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. The supply pressure increases while the downstream demand is weak externally, but winter storage demand supports the price, so the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Methanol**: Supply has returned to a high level recently, but Iranian devices may stop in the future, and port inventory is expected to decline from December to January, so the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Polyolefins**: The market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the low valuation may prompt downstream actions, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in different regions decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to the slowdown of real - estate construction, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 12 - month contract closed down $0.3 to $59.14/barrel, Brent 1 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $63.38/barrel, and SC2512 closed at 456.7 yuan/barrel, down 1.7 yuan/barrel. The non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. European ARA hub diesel inventory decreased by nearly 5%, gasoline inventory slightly decreased, naphtha inventory increased by nearly 10%, aviation fuel inventory slightly decreased, and fuel oil inventory increased [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.76% to 2517 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) fell 3.5% to 3139 yuan/ton. In October 2025, Singapore's total marine fuel sales were 4.8177 million tons, with a 1.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.23% year - on - year decrease. In November, low - sulfur supply is abundant, and high - sulfur has relatively healthy demand [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract (BU2601) rose 0.33% to 3058 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.34% at 4696 yuan/ton, EG2601 closed down 2.08% at 3822 yuan/ton, and PX601 closed down 0.58% at 6830 yuan/ton. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations, and the PTA load was adjusted to 72.1% [5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 190 yuan/ton to 15250 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 160 yuan/ton to 12320 yuan/ton. Rubber production is seasonally increasing, and imports are increasing year - on - year [6] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2000 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop in the future [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the price of East China PP and PE had different trends, and the profit of various production methods was negative. The market is gradually shifting to strong supply and weak demand [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to real - estate construction slowdown [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical products on November 20 and 19, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. The ARA hub's inventory data for diesel, gasoline, naphtha, aviation fuel, and fuel oil in the week ending November 20 was released [12][13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of different products over time, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32][37][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different varieties, including crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE, PP, etc. [68]