光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报 | | 201.8 万桶。商业原油库存比去年同期低 0.59%；比过去五年同期 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 低 4%；汽油库存比去年同期高 1.95%；比过去五年同期低 1%；馏 | | | | 分油库存比去年同期高 2.57%，比过去五年同期低 6%。当前在供 | | | | 应增量预期，地缘因素缓和，需求进入淡季的三重考验下，油价 | | | | 整体延续偏弱运行态势。 | | | | 周四，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收跌 1.25%，报 2834 元/ 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2511 收跌 1.23%，报 3360 元/吨。尽 | | | | 管符合规格的含硫 0.5%低硫燃料油的东西方套利窗口在近几周 | | | | 基本处于关闭状态，但用于调和低硫燃料油的组分油总体流入量 | | | 燃料油 | 持续增加。此外，亚洲秋季炼厂检修并未显著收紧当地供应，新 | 震荡 | | | 加坡低硫燃料油市场供应充足。亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构表现坚 | | | | 挺，部分原因在于相对稳定的下游船燃活动，但随着中东地区夏 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-09-25 俄罗斯炼⼚持续受袭，地缘短期提振能 化 乌克兰继续轰炸俄罗斯炼厂，柴油的强势提振了原油价格。柴油是全 球所有成品油中需求最大的品类，2024年俄罗斯柴油产量占全球比例为6. 5%，柴油出口占全球比例12.15%。8月迄今乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂进行了 23次袭击，这是今年1-7月总的袭击次数，市场担心柴油的供给再有减 量，柴油的裂解价差走高，汽油也同样居高不下，这给原油价格带来支 撑，未来至少要看到轰炸次数的减少，该因素对油价的影响才会减弱。 板块逻辑： 诸多化工品近期都已经临近至暗时刻，估值被大幅压缩，供需两端压 力导致产业利润压力重重。PTA的现货加工费仅有170元/吨，距离企业盈 亏平衡的300元/吨已经持续一段时间；苯乙烯非一体化和POSM类型装置双 双陷入亏损，苯乙烯的检修也在酝酿中，年底苯乙烯又有两套新装置将投 产；PVC出口至印度的关税被大幅提升，而三季度PVC的新产能刚刚集中释 放；还有产能不断释放的聚烯烃、EG。四季度化工企业的日子仍将艰难。 原油：地缘担忧重燃，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青-燃油价差 ...

Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices increased on Wednesday, with WTI October contract closing at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04, a rise of 1.66%. Brent November contract closed at $67.49 per barrel, also up $1.10, a rise of 1.66% [2] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels as of the week ending September 5. U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [2] - The geopolitical risks are influencing oil prices, leading to fluctuations in the market [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2510 rose by 1.44% to 2827 yuan/ton, while the low-sulfur main contract LU2511 increased by 0.48% to 3383 yuan/ton [3] - An increase in supply from Singapore has been noted, with more low-sulfur fuel oil components flowing from Western markets to Asia [3] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is weakening due to low demand for raw materials ahead of the autumn refinery maintenance season [3] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2510 closed up 0.55% at 3463 yuan/ton. Domestic asphalt inventory levels increased to 27.11%, a rise of 0.66% week-on-week [4] - The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants decreased to 39.59%, down 0.63% week-on-week [4] - The upcoming demand peak in September is expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, potentially leading to further price increases [4] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2601 rose by 40 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, while NR main contract fell by 20 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [5] - China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, a decline of 0.57% [5] - The market is expected to remain strong due to stable demand and inventory depletion [5] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4698 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2601 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [6] - PX main contract closed at 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with spot prices at $838 per ton [6] - The PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA is expected to improve as maintenance is completed [6] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2295 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $261-$265 per ton [7] - Domestic supply is expected to gradually recover as production resumes, while Iranian shipments remain stable [7] - The market is anticipated to reach a temporary bottom as inventory levels peak after mid-month [7] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China PP were between 6750-6960 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [8] - Demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October" demand season [8] - The market is transitioning towards a balanced supply-demand scenario, but cost pressures remain [8] PVC - PVC market prices in East China are stabilizing, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4620-4730 yuan/ton [9] - Domestic construction activity is recovering, but overall demand remains weak compared to last year [9] - The market faces high inventory pressure, leading to a gradual compression of production profits [9] Urea - Urea prices continued to trend weakly, with the main contract closing at 1669 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [10] - The supply level remains stable, but demand sentiment is weak, with low sales rates reported [10] - The market is under pressure due to inventory increases and limited new export expectations [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices remained firm, with the main contract closing at 1281 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [12] - The market is stable, with production levels declining due to increased maintenance and equipment changes [12] - Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, but macro sentiment continues to support prices [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed stability, with the main contract closing at 1181 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [13] - The domestic float glass market average price was 1164 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [13] - Demand sentiment remains positive, but no significant improvements in supply-demand balance are observed [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including their fundamental logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Most products show a bearish or neutral outlook, with suggestions mainly to hold short positions or wait and see. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ started the second - phase 165,000 barrels/day复产 plan, with an expected large surplus after the first - phase复产. The second - phase复产 combined with the demand shift from peak to off - season will increase supply and decrease demand. South American situation is tense but not significantly worsened, and the fundamental drive is downward [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's rebound is for testing the short - term pressure at 489 (11 contract) [3]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 [3]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: Weekly开工 increased slightly but there are unplanned overhauls. Downstream profits are poor, ABS and EPS开工 decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. After the autumn overhaul peak, new device commissioning in September - October will bring supply pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [6]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and it's a normal repair after the previous sharp drop. Standing above the short - term pressure of 7040 on the 10 - contract challenges the hourly downward structure [6]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with a final take - profit at 7180 [6]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side this year. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices temporarily strong. Imports increased in August. On the demand side, semi - steel tire开工 dropped significantly, while full - steel tire开工 remained high. The current fundamentals are neutral [9]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating structure on the daily chart, upward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating. After the previous technical breakthrough, the hourly level is considered an upward structure, with short - term support at 15880 [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. Supply - side device overhauls led to a drop in开工 and output, and downstream semi - steel tire inventory also decreased. The main contradiction lies in the cost side of butadiene. With the arrival of cargo ships, port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply pressure will gradually materialize in the medium - term [13]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, waiting for the short - term trend structure to be established on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly line closed at the lower edge of the oscillation range. Wait for the night session to verify the downward breakthrough [13]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute small cycle, with a take - profit reference of 11960 on the 15 - minute level [13]. PX - Logic: PX profit recovery and the end of the overhaul peak led to an increase in开工. The overall开工 of PTA decreased, and the previous destocking of PX slowed down. The short - term fundamentals weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [16][19]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly cycle's downward trend has not reversed. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper - edge pressure at 6770 [19]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with the short - term pressure at 4700 [20]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 4700 [20]. PP - Logic: Supply - side开工 increased, and new devices will be put into operation in August - September. Demand entered the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7090 is far. Pay attention to the 15 - minute short - cycle pressure at 6990, and partial take - profit can be done if it breaks through [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic and overseas methanol开工 remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate to a five - year high in September. Downstream demand weakened, and the short - term pressure is huge [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating on the daily chart, short - term downward on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, with short - term pressure at 2435 [27]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with the hourly line 2435 as the final take - profit [27]. PVC - Logic: Previous overhauls ended,开工 remained at a high of 75%. The strong comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali makes it difficult to reduce PVC supply. Inventory accumulated to the highest level in the same period, and demand is hard to improve before the real estate bottoms out [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the downward structure remains unchanged after a rebound. The short - term pressure is at 4965 [31][32]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Port inventory is at a multi - year low, making its fundamentals relatively strong compared to other energy and chemical products. However, with the increase in domestic开工, it is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Short - term is strong, but medium - term is bearish [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 4375 [34]. - Strategy: Convert 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [34]. Plastic - Logic: PE开工 remained stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is average [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7365 is far. First, pay attention to the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure at 7305 [37]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute level, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [37]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution speculation ended, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure entered the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution had no real impact on soda ash supply, and the over - capacity trend continued. High output and high inventory pressure increased since August, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [40]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 1320 [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, supply - side output and开工 decreased due to autumn overhauls and transportation restrictions in Shandong during the parade. After the parade, the supply - side speculation may end. Demand - side exports are at a high level but with falling profits. Domestic non - aluminum demand increased in the early peak season, and alumina demand remained high. Overall, supply and demand are both strong, but supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a five - year high [42]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 2625 [42]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 2625 [42].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, the raw material support weakens, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Short - fiber - **Futures Price**: Short - fiber 2509 was 6468 (down 24 from the previous day), short - fiber 2510 was 6572 (down 50), short - fiber 2511 was 6548 (down 46) [1] - **Spread**: PF09 - 10 was - 104 (up 26), PF10 - 11 was 24 (down 4), PF basis was 13 (up 50) [1] - **Position and Volume**: The short - fiber main contract's open interest was 133704 (down 26516), and the trading volume was 151482 (down 4290) [1] - **Spot and Sales**: The short - fiber spot price in East China was 6585 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the sales - to - production ratio was 37% (down 3%) [1] - **Market Situation**: TA and EG fluctuated and closed down. PF futures had a larger decline. Factory quotes remained stable, while traders offered discounts. The mainstream transaction price of Jiangsu and Zhejiang semi - bright 1.4D was 6500 - 6800 yuan/ton short - delivery, and that in Fujian was 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton short - delivery. The sales were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 44% as of 3:00 pm [2] Bottle - chip - **Futures Price**: Bottle - chip 2509 was 2836 (down 20 from the previous day), bottle - chip 2510 was 5984 (down 44), bottle - chip 2511 was 5994 (down 40) [1] - **Spread**: PR09 - 10 was - 148 (up 24), PR10 - 11 was - 10 (down 4), PR main contract basis was - 64 (up 14) [1] - **Position and Volume**: The bottle - chip main contract's open interest was 32095 (down 1830), and the trading volume was 83947 (up 7763) [1] - **Spot Price**: The bottle - chip spot price in East China was 5920 yuan/ton (down 30), and in South China was 5990 yuan/ton (down 30) [1] - **Market Situation**: Upstream polyester raw material futures declined. Polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly lowered by 20 - 60 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was weak, with orders from August to October mostly transacted at 5840 - 5930 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber was - 1, and that of bottle - chip was - 1, indicating a weak outlook for both on the reporting day's daytime main contract price fluctuations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole fluctuated significantly in June, following the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices. The inventory, valuation, production, and apparent demand of chemical products showed mixed trends. There are potential arbitrage opportunities in several cross - variety combinations [2][10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Chemical Sector Market Trend Analysis - **Energy Price Fluctuations**: In June, affected by the Israel - Iran conflict, international crude oil prices fluctuated violently, rising from $65 per barrel to nearly $80 per barrel and then dropping to $67 per barrel. The domestic thermal coal price stabilized after a continuous decline [2][10]. - **Inventory Situation**: In June, chemical inventory showed mixed changes. PTA, caustic soda, PVC, staple fiber, and EG had obvious destocking, while bottle chips and urea had relatively obvious inventory accumulation [2][15]. - **Valuation Changes**: In June, the valuation of the chemical industry changed little. EB and PX had relatively obvious valuation expansion, mainly benefiting from the sharp fluctuations in crude oil [2][15]. - **Production Volume**: In June, the chemical production volume showed mixed changes month - on - month. PX and EB were worthy of attention. Their production volume continued to expand due to profit repair. However, the space for further growth of PX production volume is limited, while EB is expected to continue growing [15]. - **Apparent Demand**: In the first five months, the apparent demand of most chemical products showed a differentiated trend. The apparent demand of glass, soda ash, and PVC had relatively obvious negative growth, while that of EB, MEG, urea, and PE showed a significant growth trend [2][15]. 3.2 Chemical Cross - Variety Arbitrage Concerns - **Glass - Soda Ash 09 Arbitrage**: Photovoltaic glass production cuts are underway, which will put pressure on the subsequent demand for soda ash. Glass, with obviously reduced supply and a continuously high basis, may be relatively resistant to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on glass and short on soda ash [3][41]. - **Bottle Chips - PTA - Ethylene Glycol Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The self - disciplined production cuts in the bottle chip industry are underway. Since it is unsustainable for the long - term processing fee to be lower than the enterprise's cash flow, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at low prices [3][26]. - **PX - BZ Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: Under high imports, the supply and demand of pure benzene are barely balanced, but PX is expected to continue significant destocking in the second half of the year. If PXN continues to strengthen, it may lead to a passive increase in pure benzene production, thus putting pressure on pure benzene. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on PX and short on BZ [3][32][34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价再现突破式反弹，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 3.17 美元 | | | | 至 68.15 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.90 美 | | | | 元至 69.77 美元/桶，涨幅 4.34%。SC2507 以 497.4 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 16.2 元/桶，涨幅为 3.37%。昨天凌晨突发，中东地缘动荡进一 | | | | 步加剧，油价凌晨大幅拉高。美媒称，美国防长下令美军家属可 | | | | 从中东各地自愿撤离。美国军方正在与国务院及其在该地区的盟 | | | | 友合作，"保持持续的战备状态"。EIA 数据，上周美国原油库存 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 下降，因炼油活动增加，推高汽油和馏分油库存。截至 6 月 6 日 | 偏强 | | | 当周，美国商业原油库存减少 360 万桶至 4.324 亿桶，此前市场 | | | | 预期为减少200万桶。当周俄克拉荷马州的库欣 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in the commodity market following the Geneva joint statement between China and the U.S., driven by demand recovery expectations and supply contractions in certain products [1]. Group 1: Demand Marginal Tracking - The demand increase in the 90-day tariff suspension period is attributed to the shipment of previously delayed orders and U.S. companies' potential actions to "rush imports and transshipments" [2]. - The recent rise in U.S. shipping prices indicates an increase in orders, which will sustain strong demand in the near term [2]. - For complex goods, the delivery process may not see significant growth in demand during the tariff suspension, while shorter delivery cycle products like textiles and toys may show increased purchasing by U.S. companies [4][5]. Group 2: Profit and Supply Decision Adjustments - Short-term supply changes have a greater impact on price elasticity, with maintenance and operational issues in PX and PTA providing upward momentum for chemical products [9]. - The actual pace of production recovery is constrained by large manufacturers' maintenance plans and strategic supply adjustments, which create price support independent of demand [10]. - Despite potential for rapid production increases in the upstream supply chain, the lack of significant demand growth and previous low-profit periods may limit the willingness of leading manufacturers to increase output [13]. Group 3: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy remains a significant risk, with a potential increase in tariffs by 54% if no agreement is reached within 90 days [16]. - The U.S. fiscal issues may necessitate a focus on revenue generation and spending cuts, complicating trade negotiations and potentially leading to higher retail prices that suppress consumer demand [16]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments in response to economic conditions may also impact inflation expectations and commodity prices [17]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals may experience short-term price corrections due to tariff and geopolitical tensions but are expected to return to their roles as a store of value in the medium term [23]. - Non-ferrous metals may face short-term demand limitations due to U.S. procurement decisions during the tariff suspension, but medium-term trends will be influenced by Federal Reserve policies [23]. - The energy sector faces supply and demand pressures, with OPEC's production increases and limited demand support affecting price stability [23].

板块观点汇总 伊朗地缘弱化,原油继续领跌 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | EB | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PP | 偏空 | 切换验证 | 寻反抽结束信号试空 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | 甲醇 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | EG | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 观望 | | 烧碱 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 尿素 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | (一) 原油: 逻辑:OPEC+加速增产带来的中期过剩预期使中期下跌趋势难改, 短期伊朗高层松开后"新伊核协议"呼之欲出,短期潜地缘利多的大 幅减弱与解除制裁后伊朗原油供应增量成为短期下行驱动。 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期下跌结构,小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日增仓回落,延续下跌路径。上方短期压力位参考465 ...