1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term strategy for most energy and chemical varieties is to hold short positions, but before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions and only keep a small part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the strong support of $60 during the holiday, there will be significant short - term acceleration space. The overall view on the energy and chemical sector is bearish, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and cost - end pressures [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the context of OPEC+ increasing production and the seasonal weakening of US demand, the probability of a supply - demand surplus in crude oil in the second half of the year is high. The strategy should focus on the bearish fundamental situation in the medium term [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a rebound with a reduction in positions. The downward space needs to wait for the foreign market to confirm the breakthrough. The short - term pressure above is around 485. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Despite a slight decrease in the operating rate due to device maintenance, the weekly production remains high year - on - year. With high imports, inventories continue to reach record highs. The high - profit, high - production, and high - inventory situation is difficult to change, and the new device commissioning pressure in September - October is high. The fundamental drive is downward [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a rebound with a reduction in positions but did not break through the pressure. Whether the decline can accelerate depends on crude oil. The short - term pressure above is around 6935. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [8]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Domestic inventories are declining slowly and are still at a high level year - on - year. With the decline in crude oil and synthetic rubber, there is pressure on natural rubber. The demand side is mixed, with a significant decline in the semi - steel tire operating rate but a high level in the full - steel tire operating rate. The current fundamentals are neutral [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 16000. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself. The operating rate has rebounded as the previously maintained devices have resumed operation. The main contradiction lies in the cost side of butadiene. With the concentrated arrival of ship cargoes, port inventories have increased significantly. In the medium term, the supply pressure will gradually materialize as butadiene production capacity is put into operation. The cost side is bearish [13][16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. There was a position - reduction action before the holiday, but the large - scale position increase since the end of August still exists. The short - term pressure above is around 11730. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at 11730 [16]. (5) PX - Logic: PX has good profits and maintains a high operating rate. With more unexpected maintenance of downstream PTA, the short - term supply - demand of PX has weakened, but the contradiction is not prominent. It is mainly driven by the cost side of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions following crude oil. The short - term pressure above is around 6655. The strategy is to stop - profit half of the 15 - minute short positions and hold the remaining half at the hourly level, with the stop - loss reference at the hourly pressure of 6655 [20]. (6) PTA - Logic: The cost side of crude oil is expected to have a supply - increase and demand - decrease surplus in the fourth quarter, which will drive down costs. PTA's own supply - demand is also expected to weaken and accumulate inventories. The demand side is weak in the peak season, and the demand will decline in the off - season from September to November. The supply side maintains a high output year - on - year after the commissioning of large - scale devices in the middle of the year. The fundamentals are pessimistic [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions. The short - term pressure above is around 4620. The strategy is to stop - profit half of the short positions when the 15 - minute small - cycle breaks through the 4570 pressure and hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at 4620 [24]. (7) PP - Logic: The demand side has improved slightly in the peak season, but the improvement is limited. The supply side has increased pressure with the commissioning of new production capacity. After the high - level decline in the futures price, short - selling should be cautious. Attention should also be paid to the cost - side collapse logic caused by the decline of crude oil [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure is around 7000. After the stop - profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [27][29]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The situation of weak reality and strong expectation continues. Domestic production has declined slightly but is still at a high level year - on - year. With a large number of ship cargoes arriving after the resumption in Iran in August, imports have increased significantly. The comprehensive operating rate of downstream olefins has declined after the maintenance. Port inventories continue to accumulate slightly at the highest level in the same period. Although there is a reversal logic in the fourth quarter, the current 01 contract has a high premium, and the valuation is not low. There is no value in bottom - fishing on the left side. The decline since August has not ended [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 2375. After a previous stop - profit, the remaining short positions should be held cautiously, with the hourly line of 2375 as the final stop - profit position [30][32]. (9) PVC - Logic: The supply side has increasing pressure with the commissioning of new production capacity. The demand side is under pressure due to the bottom - less real estate market and the significant increase in anti - dumping duties by India. Inventories have continuously accumulated to the highest level in the same period. The pressure of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory persists [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 4980 (far), and the 15 - minute pressure is around 4930. The hourly - cycle is recommended to wait and see, and there is a short - selling signal at the end of the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss reference at 4945 [33]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The weekly operating rates of MEG and downstream industries have little change, and the port inventories of ethylene glycol continue to decline slightly. The short - term reality is strong, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the supply pressure under the expectation of new device commissioning and the drive brought by the decline of crude oil [35]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure is around 4275. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at 4275 [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The weekly operating rate of PE has rebounded. New production capacity has been put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The downstream demand has rebounded slightly in the peak season, but the rebound is less than expected. The supply - demand is bearish, and the decline in the futures price in September has reflected this. Attention should be paid to the cost - side drive brought by the decline of crude oil [38]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 7205. The strategy is to close half of the positions when the 15 - minute cycle breaks through the 7140 pressure and hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [38]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The weekly supply of soda ash has increased from a high level, and the supply side remains loose. The situation of high production and high inventory has not improved [42]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions. The short - term pressure above is around 1321. The strategy is to stop - profit half of the positions when the 15 - minute cycle breaks through the 1390 pressure and hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [42]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply of liquid chlorine is loose. The demand side shows a high - operating - rate pattern in alumina enterprises, but the off - alumina demand has limited rebound in the peak season. The weekly inventory of caustic soda has increased again, and the high - level pressure year - on - year continues. The short - term fundamentals have weakened compared with last week. The medium - term focus is on the improvement of demand under device maintenance and the downstream peak season [46]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure is difficult to find, and the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure is around 2575. After the stop - profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [46].