1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for each product, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", etc. [9][10][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ will comprehensively review the current situation before deciding on future production. The market is concerned about the potential increase in production, which has led to a decline in oil prices. Economic data also shows a cooling labor market in the US. [2] - Most chemical products are dragged down by the decline in crude oil prices. The polyester chain and oil products have significant drops. PTA and MEG are expected to de - stock in September but may re - stock from October to December. Methanol, despite high port inventories, has a strong recent trend due to external procurement by olefin enterprises. [3] - Investors should approach the oil - chemical industry with an oscillating mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in the Chinese petrochemical industry. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Product 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Concerns about production increases have resurfaced, and oil prices are seen as weakly oscillating. - **Market News**: OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting. US API and EIA inventory data show mixed trends. Trump may talk with Putin and hinted at imposing more sanctions on Russia. - **Main Logic**: The OPEC+ production policy on September 7 remains uncertain, and the expectation of supply surplus in the fourth quarter is hard to disprove. US commercial crude inventories increased, and refinery demand weakened. [9] 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: With the decline of crude oil, asphalt has fallen below the important threshold of 3,500 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: The market refocused on negative factors such as tariff hikes and OPEC+ production increases. The premium of asphalt has decreased, and demand remains pessimistic. [10] 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil has followed the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Negative factors such as tariff hikes and OPEC+ production increases have affected the market. Although there is geopolitical premium in some regions, the feedstock demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased, and the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. [11] 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen sharply following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and its supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. [12] 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient cost support, and there is a game between differentiated expectations and tight supply - demand. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil prices have oscillated downward, weakening cost support. The market focus has shifted from short - term tight supply - demand to long - term inventory accumulation expectations. Fundamentally, supply is stable and demand is increasing, with limited inventory pressure. [13] 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Poor downstream procurement enthusiasm and pessimistic expectations have led to a price plunge. - **Main Logic**: Upstream cost support is insufficient, and market sentiment has been affected by new device commissioning news. Fundamentally, supply has decreased and demand is stable, but polyester factories' procurement enthusiasm is low due to pessimistic expectations. [13] 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price of pure benzene will oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the supply of naphtha is expected to tighten. Pure benzene imports are increasing, and it is expected to start accumulating inventory next week. The demand of downstream products has not improved significantly. [14] 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The decline has slowed, and the market is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: The decline is mainly due to the weakening of anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy - chemical sector and the black commodity market. The inventory of styrene is at a high level in the past five years, and the demand of downstream products is weak. [15] 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between low - inventory support and differentiated expectations. - **Main Logic**: The price is oscillating at a low level. Although there are expectations of future inventory accumulation, the current inventory is at a historical low, and the possibility of continuous inventory accumulation is small. [16] 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The sales performance is mediocre, and the sustainability of the peak season is questionable. - **Main Logic**: The upstream market has oscillated downward, and cost support is insufficient. Fundamentally, supply is stable and demand is weak, production and sales have declined again, and industry inventories are accumulating. [18] 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: With upstream cost concessions, the processing fee has limited self - driving force for repair. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the price is significantly dragged down by costs. The processing fee of bottle chips has been passively repaired, but the overall repair strength is limited due to weak self - driving force. [19] 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There are still overseas disturbance expectations in the far - month, and the methanol price is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: On September 4, the methanol price oscillated. The inventory in the inland area is at a relatively low level year - on - year. Recently, the far - month shutdown expectation has disturbed the market. The downstream olefin fundamentals have limited support. [22] 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market is weakly stable, and after the Indian tender is announced, it is expected to oscillate strongly. - **Main Logic**: After the Indian NFL urea import tender news was announced, although the price is lower than the previous round, it is still expected to be positive. [23] 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **Viewpoint**: Oil prices continue to decline, and LLDPE is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices have declined, and there are uncertainties in geopolitical situations. The measures to address over - capacity in the domestic petrochemical industry have limited actual support. The macro - economic support in the "Golden September and Silver October" is limited, and the self - fundamentals of LLDPE are still under pressure. [27] 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the support strength at the previous low, and PP is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: The supply of PP is still increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Oil prices are declining in the short - term, and there are geopolitical uncertainties. The measures to address over - capacity in the domestic petrochemical industry have a neutral impact. The PP price is approaching the previous low, and the support strength needs to be observed. [29] 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: PL follows the short - term fluctuations of PP. - **Main Logic**: The enterprise inventory is controllable, and the market is mainly stable. The downstream demand is based on low - price procurement, and the trading volume is limited. The PP - PL processing fee is the focus of the market, and the current range of 500 - 600 is relatively reasonable. [29] 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak reality suppresses PVC, and it is running weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, domestic anti - over - competition policies have not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with cost reduction, production decline in September due to autumn inspections, stable downstream start - up, uncertain export expectations, and weakening raw material prices. [33] 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price has temporarily peaked, and the market is cautiously weak. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, domestic anti - over - competition policies have not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals have marginally improved, with increased alumina replenishment demand, improved non - aluminum start - up, increased export orders, and reduced production due to inspections. [34] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.4, - 0.04), Dubai (M1 - M2: 0.81, - 0.06), etc. [36] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities, such as asphalt (basis: 72, change: 72; warehouse receipts: 69400), etc. [37] - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 195, - 3), etc. [38] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of multiple products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented. [39][52][64] 3.3 Market Indexes - **Comprehensive Indexes**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed declines on September 4, 2025, with declines of 0.33%, 0.34%, and 0.36% respectively. [280] - **Energy Index**: On September 4, 2025, the energy index was 1192.96, with a daily decline of 2.27%, a 5 - day decline of 1.32%, a 1 - month decline of 3.82%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.85%. [282]