投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-10-10 能源化⼯组研究团队 研究员： 原油调整但政策预期偏强，化⼯内部分 化 国际油价企稳震荡，Brent仍未脱离65-70的震荡区间，SC受制于国内 的原油高库存，率先跌至震荡区间下沿。当前原油市场聚焦在以色列与哈 马斯的协议，据报道双方就停火及释放该武装组织扣押的所有人质达成协 议；路透社报道称，协议本身在细节上仍存在明显欠缺，且遗留了诸多尚 未解决的问题，对协议的最终达成存疑。焦煤价格节后首日企稳回升，十 一长假期间陕西多座煤矿被查产量大于核定产能的10%，突遭罚款和停产 整顿，煤炭价格有企稳可能。 板块逻辑： 10月9日晚间发改委和市场监督总局发布"治理价格无序竞争，维护 良好市场秩序"的公告，这可能对国内低迷的大宗商品略略带来情绪端的 提振。就化工品而言，尚未看到非常有效的减产发生。PTA现货加工费再 次跌破200元/吨，周度开工率仅下滑2.4%，EG开工率周度仍攀升；苯乙烯 超过65%的装置已经亏损，周度开工率环比提升2.37%；PP作为节后首日亏 损较大的品种，周度开工也有1.14%的环比提升。供应端没 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-10-09 原油延续动荡格局，化⼯以对冲套利为 主 原油价格在十一期间走势动荡，整体仍是震荡格局。最新月度产量陆 续公布，OPEC在9月产量环比增40万桶/日，美国7月原油产量继续创新 高，全球9月原油出口环比增210万桶/日。另一方面是地缘端的扰动仍然 存在，乌克兰没有停止袭击俄罗斯炼厂，普京表示，如果缺少俄罗斯原 油，油价将大幅上涨。10月8日美国石油协会公布，该国交割库库欣库存 单周下降120万桶也短期给油价带来支撑。鉴于成品油裂解价差的逐步走 弱，我们认为原油反弹空间有限。 板块逻辑： 十一长假期间，基础化工品价格变动较小。跌幅较大的品种有鹿特丹 的异构级MX，跌幅为3.14%；此外还有FOB美湾的苯乙烯，跌幅2.91%；欧 美的纯苯价格在长假期间略有反弹。PX长假期间跌幅不足1%。原油的动荡 和化工自身的低估值，导致产业链没有明确的趋势行情，因为尚未看到供 应有较大减量，即使是亏损较大的品种也仍然可能继续亏损下去。投资者 可以正套尝试参与大幅亏损的品种，例如苯乙烯。 原油：OPEC+延续增产，地缘仍有扰动 沥青 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, which could drag down oil prices. The ethylene glycol port inventory is at a five - year low, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. For loss - making varieties with low inventory pressure, a positive spread trading strategy can be held during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold large - position unilateral positions. If holding positions, polyolefins with continuously innovative high production are preferred. The energy and chemical sector still oscillates with crude oil as the anchor. A light - position short - selling can be tried on pre - holiday rebounds, and low - inventory products can be intervened through positive spread trading [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - The energy and chemical market is expected to continue to oscillate with crude oil as the anchor. Pre - holiday rebounds can be short - sold with a light position, and low - inventory products can be traded through positive spreads [3] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances are frequent. The end of the Israel - Hamas conflict is optimistic, but the actual supply of crude oil has not been affected. The later focus of the geopolitical end is still on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, crude oil will face the double pressure of the peak and decline of refinery start - up and OPEC+ accelerating production increase. The short - term view is oscillatory, and risk control should be noted during the holiday [9][10] Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil and continues to compress profits. The October asphalt production plan increases by 19% year - on - year, and the supply tension problem is greatly alleviated. The high premium of asphalt is expected to decline, and the price difference between months is expected to fall with the increase of warehouse receipts [11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical disturbances drive the oscillatory price of fuel oil. The export of Russian fuel oil reached a record high in September, but geopolitical disturbances may cause the export expectation to decline significantly. The demand expectation has improved, but the support drivers are unstable. Geopolitical escalation's impact on price is short - term, and the change of the Russia - Ukraine situation should be concerned [11] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase and the demand to decline, and it is expected to run at a low valuation and follow the fluctuation of crude oil [13] Methanol - The external procurement of olefins in the inland continues, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The inventory pressure in the inland is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large. Some funds may still bargain - hunt at low prices. Low - long opportunities can be concerned from September to October [26] Urea - Pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the futures price is under pressure under the loose supply - demand situation. The current winter storage and export expectations are not good, and it is expected to be weakly sorted out [27] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory hits a new low again, and the pattern of near - strong and far - weak continues. Although there is an expectation of a stocking inflection point in the port, the short - term price decline stops slightly, but the rebound height is limited, and interval operation is recommended [20] PX - There is cost support, but the supply - demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream naphtha is relatively strong, and the supply is at a high level. The short - term price oscillates within the interval, and the change of downstream PTA devices should be concerned [14] PTA - As the holiday approaches, the negotiation is light. The upstream cost has certain support, but the downstream negotiation is light. The price follows the cost to oscillate and sort out, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15] Short - Fiber - Downstream pre - holiday replenishment is mostly completed. The cost is weak, and the market lacks a clear direction. The short - fiber price is expected to maintain a bottom - interval oscillation [22] Bottle Chip - The driving force is limited, and it follows the upstream fluctuation. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillate, and the support for the bottle chip price weakens. The supply - demand side has no obvious change, and the short - term price oscillates within the interval [23] PP - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. It has fallen below the June low, and there is a slight rebound near the previous low. The supply side is still in an incremental state, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure still exists. The short - term view is oscillatory [30] Propylene - It follows the fluctuation of PP, and PL oscillates in the short term. The market sentiment is slightly boosted, but the expectation for the future is still bearish, and the operation is cautious [31] Plastic - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. The short - term price decline has led to an increase in downstream transactions. Although the downstream start - up improvement is slow, there is still some demand support. The supply side still has certain pressure, and the short - term view is oscillatory [29] Pure Benzene - The pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment is obvious, and it oscillates weakly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking makes the structure of pure benzene stronger, but according to the current maintenance and production - start plans, it will be in a state of oversupply by the end of the year, especially with large import pressure in October [16][18] Styrene - Before the holiday, there is a wait - and - see sentiment and port stocking. The cost - side support gradually appears, the domestic production supply decreases, and the downstream demand is good, but the port inventory has a continuous stocking expectation. The profit is at a low level, and an attempt can be made to widen the profit, with a rebound - shorting idea [18][19] PVC - The market sentiment cools down, and it oscillates. The macro - level policy has been implemented, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the disk valuation is low, and the decline space is limited [32] Caustic Soda - There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and the disk oscillates. The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The short - term spot decline slows down, and attention should be paid to whether upstream production reduction occurs due to low profit after the holiday and the procurement process of non - aluminum and alumina [32] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period price differences, basis, and inter - variety price differences of various energy and chemical varieties, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data can help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties [34][35][36] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [37][50][62] 4. Commodity Index - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed a decline. The energy index increased by 0.19% on the day, 3.99% in the past 5 days, 1.93% in the past month, and decreased by 0.07% since the beginning of the year [278][280]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", and "oscillating strongly" [277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Geopolitical concerns, such as the situation in Ukraine and the potential for increased sanctions on Russia, are major drivers of price volatility. Supply - demand imbalances vary by product, with some facing oversupply issues while others have improving demand [2][3][8]. - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with some products having a weakening or strengthening bias. The market is also affected by seasonal factors, such as pre - holiday stocking and autumn maintenance [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and supply pressure persists. Despite the expected resumption of Iraqi oil exports, the potential for increased restrictions on Russian oil by the US and the uncertainty of sanctions policies are driving price volatility. OPEC+ is accelerating production, and refinery operations are expected to decline, putting downward pressure on prices. The outlook is for weak oscillation, with attention on short - term geopolitical disturbances [2][8]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. However, its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase. The profit margin is compressed, and the supply situation has improved significantly, with the October production plan increasing by 19% year - on - year [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances have driven up prices. Although Russian fuel oil exports reached a high in September, geopolitical factors may cause a significant decline in export expectations. Demand is expected to improve, but the impact of geopolitical events on prices is likely to be short - lived [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates upward following crude oil. It faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current low valuation means it will likely follow crude oil price movements [13]. - **Methanol**: Inland olefin procurement continues, and the price oscillates. There is a contradiction between near - term and far - term inventory pressures, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in September - October [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and prices are under long - term pressure along the cost line. Although there are some positive expectations, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The expectation of inventory accumulation suppresses upward price elasticity, and inventory has increased slightly. The price is expected to have limited rebound in the short - term [20][22]. - **PX**: Cost provides support, but the supply - demand outlook is weakening, and processing fees are under pressure. Supply remains high, and the potential for PTA factory production cuts may further affect demand [14][15]. - **PTA**: There are rumors of major PTA manufacturers cutting production to support prices, and processing fees have improved significantly. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with attention on the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream markets are replenishing stocks before the holiday, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, following raw material prices [22][23]. - **Bottle Chip**: Typhoons have caused short - term plant shutdowns, and supply - demand drivers are limited. The price is expected to oscillate, following raw material prices [23][24]. - **PP**: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention on the support level of previous lows. Supply is increasing more than demand, and inventory pressure remains [31]. - **Propylene**: It follows the fluctuations of PP and oscillates in the short - term [32]. - **Plastic**: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with short - term support from factors such as reduced inventory pressure in the US and pre - holiday replenishment demand [30]. - **Pure Benzene**: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. There is difficulty in reducing inventory before the end of the year, especially in October when import pressure is high [17][19]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. High inventory levels in the upstream and downstream are difficult to reduce, and the cost of pure benzene may drag down prices [19][20]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and the price oscillates. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, factors such as production cuts in September and increased downstream procurement at low prices are providing some support [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are strong expectations but weak reality, and the price oscillates. The demand outlook is positive, but there are still short - term supply pressures [34]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various products show different trends, with some narrowing and others widening. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX has decreased by 20, while the 5 - 9 month spread of PP has increased by 17 [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of different products also vary. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 60 with a change of - 48, and the number of warehouse receipts is 55980 [36]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, and PTA and PX, show different degrees of change, reflecting the relative price relationships between different products [37].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-09-25 俄罗斯炼⼚持续受袭，地缘短期提振能 化 乌克兰继续轰炸俄罗斯炼厂，柴油的强势提振了原油价格。柴油是全 球所有成品油中需求最大的品类，2024年俄罗斯柴油产量占全球比例为6. 5%，柴油出口占全球比例12.15%。8月迄今乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂进行了 23次袭击，这是今年1-7月总的袭击次数，市场担心柴油的供给再有减 量，柴油的裂解价差走高，汽油也同样居高不下，这给原油价格带来支 撑，未来至少要看到轰炸次数的减少，该因素对油价的影响才会减弱。 板块逻辑： 诸多化工品近期都已经临近至暗时刻，估值被大幅压缩，供需两端压 力导致产业利润压力重重。PTA的现货加工费仅有170元/吨，距离企业盈 亏平衡的300元/吨已经持续一段时间；苯乙烯非一体化和POSM类型装置双 双陷入亏损，苯乙烯的检修也在酝酿中，年底苯乙烯又有两套新装置将投 产；PVC出口至印度的关税被大幅提升，而三季度PVC的新产能刚刚集中释 放；还有产能不断释放的聚烯烃、EG。四季度化工企业的日子仍将艰难。 原油：地缘担忧重燃，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青-燃油价差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the ratings are as follows: - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [10] - **PX**: Oscillating weakly [12] - **PTA**: Oscillating weakly [13] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly [14] - **Styrene**: Oscillating weakly [17] - **MEG**: Oscillating weakly [19] - **Short Fiber**: Oscillating weakly [22] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating weakly [23] - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillation [26] - **Urea**: Oscillation [27] - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillation [30] - **PP**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PL**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PVC**: Partial oscillation [35] - **Caustic Soda**: Medium - long - term partial oscillation [36] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil futures continued to decline on Monday. If the EU introduces strong sanctions, oil prices may fluctuate. Chemical prices also continued to fall, but some varieties with good fundamentals showed positive arbitrage signs. The energy and chemical industry as a whole will continue the pattern of oscillating consolidation [1][2][3]. - For each specific product, the prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and cost support, showing different trends of oscillation, weakening, or strengthening [7][8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the context of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, the weak - reality pattern is reflected in inventory year - on - year. The resumption of oil exports from the Kurdish region in Iraq may improve the implementation rate of Iraq's production increase. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with risks mainly concentrated in the geopolitical area [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price oscillates below 3,500 yuan/ton. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to continue increasing production and geopolitical escalation offset the decline in demand. The pricing power of asphalt futures may return to Shandong. The current market expects high - start and low - inventory to digest production pressure, but the invisible inventory in South China is a concern [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price oscillates weakly. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to increase production, geopolitical escalation, and a significant increase in Russia's fuel oil exports in early September have led to a weakening of the fuel oil cracking spread. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It may face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand and maintain low - valuation operation [10]. - **PX**: Supply - demand margin weakens, cost has no obvious support, and processing fees are under pressure. Oil prices are weak, and the chemical market sentiment is poor. The delay of some PX device maintenance and the increase in downstream PTA device maintenance drag down PX demand to some extent [12]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and there is no continuous positive in supply - demand. Cost performance is poor, and the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The downstream demand is affected by the National Day holiday, and there is no obvious positive support [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The future outlook is still pessimistic, and the price returns to decline. Although there was a short - term boost at the beginning of the week, with the implementation of interest - rate cut benefits and the impact of news such as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the price declined. Before the end of the year, it is difficult to destock, especially with high import pressure in October [14]. - **Styrene**: There is insufficient fundamental positive, and the price resumes decline. The contradiction lies in the difficulty of destocking high inventories in the upstream and downstream. Although there is a destocking pattern from September to October, it has limited effect on the current high inventory, and it will return to the end - of - year inventory accumulation cycle from November to December [17]. - **MEG**: Before the festival, the port shipment performance is poor, and the port inventory accumulates. Cost support is not obvious, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in the long - term [18]. - **Short Fiber**: Inventory is slightly destocked, and processing fees are firm. The support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price mainly follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The processing fees have strengthened bottom support during the peak season [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: Low prices stimulate some factories to purchase, and processing fees operate stably. The cost support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price oscillates and declines. However, due to its own limited driving force, the decline is limited, and processing fees expand passively [23]. - **Methanol**: There is still a certain stocking demand before the festival, and the methanol futures price oscillates and declines. The price of upstream manufacturers has decreased, but the low inventory level in the inland area and the stocking demand before the National Day support the market. There is a contradiction between high inventory pressure in the port in the near - term and the expected overseas shutdown in the far - term [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of looseness is difficult to change, and the futures price is continuously under pressure along the cost line. On September 22, the supply - side daily output and operating rate continued to increase, while the demand - side support was insufficient, and the export expectation was weakening [27]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream transactions still increase in volume, and the price oscillates and declines. Affected by factors such as oil price oscillation, macro - atmosphere, and supply - demand situation, although the downstream demand may have certain support before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the overall fundamental situation is still under pressure [30]. - **PP**: It oscillates and declines, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the previous low. Affected by oil price and macro - factors, it has reached near the low point in June, and there is still some support. Although there is some downstream restocking demand before the festival, the supply - side pressure still exists [31]. - **PL**: It follows PP to fluctuate and oscillates and declines in the short - term. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the willingness to further reduce prices is limited. The PP - PL spread oscillates around 500, and the volatility of PL may increase marginally [32]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment declines, and it should be treated with caution and weakly. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost increase slows down. The production may decline, the downstream demand improves, and the signing of orders improves [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Strong expectation but weak reality, and the futures price is partial to oscillation. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the fundamental situation of caustic soda still has pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The inventory receipt volume of Weiqiao is high, and the purchase price has been lowered. However, the expected stocking of alumina for caustic soda in 2026Q1 is strong [36]. 3.2 Product Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: It shows the cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - product spreads of various products, reflecting the price relationships and changes among different products and different contract periods [38][39][40]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although specific data are not detailed in the summary part, it is expected to further analyze the basis and spread of various chemical products to provide references for market participants [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and sector index (energy index) show different trends of increase and decrease, reflecting the overall performance of the commodity market on September 22, 2025 [281][283].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Oil prices rose for three consecutive days and then slightly declined. The market is assessing the impact of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The weekly export volume of Russian crude oil has significantly decreased, and the crack spread of diesel in Europe and the United States has reached a new high since July. The volatile pattern of crude oil may continue [2]. - In the context of a reasonable valuation pattern for chemical products, they fluctuate following crude oil and coal. Currently, attention should be paid to whether low - valued chemical products will experience a significant rebound. For example, the processing fee of PTA is likely to be repaired, and the increase in futures may be slightly weaker than that in the spot market [3]. - The overall chemical product prices are boosted by macro - sentiment in the short term, but they remain volatile in general [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week of September 12, mainly due to a significant increase in net crude oil exports. The single - week import dropped to the lowest level in the same period in five years, and the export increased to the highest level in the same period in five years. The supply - demand pattern shows a weak reality, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, with risks concentrated on the geopolitical side [6]. - **Asphalt**: The option positions are concentrated at 3500, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price fluctuates weakly. The crack spread of fuel oil weakens due to the expected increase in production and the high export volume of Russian fuel oil. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline, and it is likely to maintain a low - valuation operation [9]. - **Methanol**: The inventory accumulation at ports slows down, and the methanol futures price fluctuates. The inland inventory pressure is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large, and there is a contradiction between the near - and far - month contracts [17]. - **Urea**: The actual transaction is limited, and it fluctuates and consolidates in the short term. The supply has increased significantly, but the demand support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile [19]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The downstream demand fails to meet expectations, and the market sentiment is under pressure. The cost has certain support, but the supply - side pressure is expected to increase significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - **PX**: The new PTA production is postponed, the demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The short - term price fluctuates following the cost, but the profit is expected to be under pressure due to the poor demand expectation [10]. - **PTA**: The new device production is postponed, and the maintenance is implemented, but the market boosting effect is limited. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, but the structure is difficult to change, and there is a possibility of a slight repair of PTA profit [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates following the cost, and the demand is average. The fundamental variables are limited, the upstream cost rises slightly, but the demand is still weak, and it is expected to fluctuate and sort out in the short term [14]. - **Bottle Chip**: The driving force is limited, and it follows passively. The price fluctuates and stabilizes, and the processing fee fluctuates within a range. It follows the upstream cost [15]. - **PP**: The maintenance slightly increases, and there is still restocking demand before the festival. The futures price fluctuates. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is some support from demand, but the supply side still has certain pressure [23]. - **Propylene**: It fluctuates following PP in the short term and is volatile in the short term [24]. - **Plastic**: There is still restocking demand before the festival, and it fluctuates. The previous low provides support, and there is some restocking demand from downstream manufacturers, but the supply side is under pressure [22]. - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by benzene - ethylene devices and macro - factors, pure benzene rises during the day. The prices of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene are in a neutral range, and the price compression drive is insufficient. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in crude oil prices and the subsequent import volume of pure benzene [11]. - **Benzene - Ethylene**: Affected by macro and device factors, benzene - ethylene rebounds. It rebounds after a decline, but it is still bearish in the medium term, and the inventory pressure is large. In the short term, it fluctuates, and there may be a small rebound [12]. - **PVC**: It operates in a volatile manner with a weak reality and strong expectation. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost slightly increases [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot decline space is limited, and the market is volatile. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamentals of caustic soda are under pressure, and the spot price is accelerating to decline. However, restocking before the National Day may provide certain support [27]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy Chemical Daily Index Monitoring**: - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [28]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, showing the latest values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities [29]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [30]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Specific monitoring content for various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc. is mentioned, but detailed data is not fully presented [31][44][56]. 3. Investment Rating Standard Explanation - The investment rating includes "strong", "volatile and strong", "volatile", "volatile and weak", "weak", and the time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks. One - time standard deviation is calculated as the 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation divided by the current price [271]. 4. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on September 17, 2025, is mentioned, including the special index and the sector index. The special index includes the commodity 20 index and the industrial product index, with corresponding values and changes. The sector index includes the energy index, with information on the latest value, historical price changes, and daily and recent price changes [272][273][275].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing price fluctuations that follow the trends of crude oil and coal, with a focus on whether undervalued chemical products will rebound significantly [1] - For PTA, the current spot processing fee is consistently below 150 RMB/ton, while the breakeven point exceeds 250-300 RMB/ton, indicating a potential for processing fee recovery due to the negative basis [1] - New production facilities have been delayed, impacting the processing fees for the PTA industry, which has a capacity of over 80 million tons, suggesting that the current processing fees are unsustainable [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure from crude oil continues, with geopolitical risks needing attention [1] - Various chemical products are experiencing different market dynamics, such as methanol port inventory accumulation slowing down and urea transactions being limited [1] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with macroeconomic factors providing only temporary boosts to chemical prices, leading to an overall oscillating trend [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the chemical market currently lacks a clear direction, with macroeconomic sentiment providing only temporary support for prices, which remain volatile overall [1] - China's retail sales data is weak, leading to market expectations for government stimulus policies to boost consumption [1] - Despite a general rise in chemical prices, the rebound is hesitant, with many products like PP and PTA showing weakened basis as futures prices increase [1] Group 2 - The current refinery maintenance season has not seen significant unexpected repairs, making it difficult for reduced chemical supply to support a substantial price rebound [1] - There is ongoing pressure on crude oil supply, and geopolitical risks need to be monitored [1] - The market for methanol shows ongoing contradictions between near and far-month prices, leading to price volatility [1] Group 3 - Urea prices are under pressure due to the overall rebound in the chemical sector, leading to short-term price fluctuations [1] - Ethylene glycol prices are suppressed by expectations of a loose supply-demand balance in the future [1] - PX's fundamentals are not optimistic, with processing fees being compressed again [1] Group 4 - PTA faces weak polyester demand, with ample spot circulation leading to pressure on the basis [1] - Short fibers are following cost fluctuations, with general demand being average [1] - PVC is experiencing weak reality but strong expectations, resulting in volatile operations [1] Group 5 - The outlook suggests that while macroeconomic sentiment has temporarily boosted chemical prices, the overall trend remains one of volatility [1] - Risks include potential significant tariff increases by the U.S. on China and changes in OPEC+ production policies [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating weakly [3][7] - Asphalt: Oscillating weakly [3][8] - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3][8] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3][11] - PX: Oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [12][13] - Pure benzene: Oscillating [13][15] - Styrene: Oscillating [15][17] - MEG: Oscillating [17][19] - Short fiber: Oscillating [19][20] - Bottle chip: Oscillating [20][21] - Methanol: Oscillating [23][26] - Urea: Oscillating weakly [24] - LLDPE: Oscillating [27] - PP: Oscillating [28][29] - PL: Oscillating [29] - PVC: Oscillating [31] - Caustic soda: Oscillating [31][32] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors have led to a slight increase in oil prices, and domestic macroeconomic factors have boosted the prices of chemical products. The future trend depends on whether there are actual supply reduction policies [1][2][3]. - The prices of chemical products have been lifted by macro - sentiment, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be actual supply reduction in the later stage [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Crude oil**: The port attacked on September 12 has resumed operation, but refineries are still frequently attacked, and the international diesel market supply is tightening. Under the background of OPEC + accelerating production increase, the supply - demand pattern shows a weak reality. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [7]. - **Asphalt**: The 3500 position of options has concentrated holdings, and the battle between bulls and bears is fierce. The high valuation of asphalt is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: Russian fuel oil exports have reached a record high, and the demand outlook has deteriorated. Geopolitical upgrades have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and is expected to maintain low - valuation operation [11]. - **PX**: Supply has reached a high level. In the short term, it oscillates following costs and sentiment. It is necessary to pay attention to the support around 6600 [12]. - **PTA**: The return of maintenance devices has hindered the upward expectation of polyester load. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the support around 4600 [12][13]. - **Pure benzene**: Affected by styrene devices and macro factors, it rose on the day. If styrene maintenance occurs in September - October, the pattern will return to oversupply [13][15]. - **Styrene**: Affected by macro and device factors, it rebounded. In the short term, it may oscillate with a small rebound, but the inventory suppresses the increase [15][17]. - **MEG**: The port has a small inventory build - up, and it is difficult to see continuous build - up in the month. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the support around 4200 [17][19]. - **Short fiber**: It fluctuates following costs, and the demand is average. In the short term, it oscillates and sorts [19][20]. - **Bottle chip**: It has limited driving forces and follows passively. It oscillates, and the absolute value follows raw materials [20][21]. - **Methanol**: There are still contradictions between the near and far months. The futures price oscillates. There may be low - buying opportunities from September to October [23]. - **Urea**: Affected by spot quotes, the futures rebounded. The fundamentals are still loosely supplied, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - **LLDPE**: Supported by the previous low and downstream replenishment before festivals, it oscillates in the short term. The downward rhythm of oil price depends on geopolitical risks and overseas inventory accumulation [27]. - **PP**: Slightly rebounded due to increased maintenance and rising oil prices. It oscillates in the short term [28][29]. - **PL**: Supported by PDH maintenance, it oscillates in the short term [29]. - **PVC**: With weak reality and strong expectation, it oscillates. The pressure comes from long - term fundamentals, and the support comes from rising dynamic costs and improved market sentiment [31]. - **Caustic soda**: The spot price is under pressure to decline, and the futures is cautiously weak. The downward space is limited considering the alumina production expectation in the far - month [31][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.41, - 0.04), Dubai (M1 - M2: 1.75, 0.54), etc. [33] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis, change values, and warehouse receipt numbers, like asphalt (basis: 127, - 35; warehouse receipts: 67360) [34] - **Inter - variety spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, for example, 1 - month PP - 3MA: - 222, 2 [36] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific content for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) is mentioned, no detailed and summarizable data or analysis is provided in the given text.