投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 地缘担忧重又燃起，8月25日美国总统特朗普威胁两周内若未达成协 议，将对俄罗斯实施"大规模制裁"；特朗普表示，两周期限过后，他将 做出决定，"是实施大规模制裁、大规模关税，还是两者兼施——抑或是 不作为，只说'这是你们自己的战争'"。美国立场重回强硬路线，这是 当前原油价格走强的主要原因。与此同时，乌克兰对俄罗斯的袭击仍未停 止，最新报道是用远程无人机袭击俄罗斯波罗的海乌斯季卢加港。 板块逻辑： 化工品仍在"反内卷"的提振下，整体格局延续强势。化工品种表现 最好的是聚酯链，因聚酯不仅有政策的提振，也有产业自身的好转，表现 在终端的需求预期提升，也表现在PTA企业积极减产挺价。纯苯和苯乙烯 链条表现则差强人意，尤其是苯乙烯，港口库存周度攀升，库存绝对值位 于五年同期最高。聚烯烃在8月25日日盘也出现补涨，烯烃自身产业未看 到较大变化，而韩国石脑油裂解的减产，未来石化的强制检修对让市场对 低位的化工品开始试多。乙二醇开工高企的格局下仍然实现周度去库， 五年同期最低的港口库存对期价有支撑。 原油：供应压力延续，反弹持续性预计有限 沥青：地缘溢价再起，沥青期价走高 高硫 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积飘红，燃料油和焦煤涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20250826 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 221/221/221 181/181/181 基 础 色 辅 助 色 210/10/16 87/87/87 227/82/4 | 金融市场涨跌幅 | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨 | 板块 | 品种 | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 现价 | 品种 | 现代 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The profit bottom of the chemical industry has emerged or is approaching. Chemical stocks are more certain investment targets than chemical futures. The absolute price of chemical futures will be stronger than that of raw materials in the near - term, and the profit margin will not be compressed further [3]. - The overall energy and chemical market has returned to a volatile state, and it is still difficult for prices to rise as the actual supply - demand situation has not changed [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - International crude oil futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate on Wednesday night. The "Friendship" pipeline has fully resumed normal operation. Russia sells oil to India at a discount of about 5%. The crack spread of refined oil has strengthened recently [2]. - On August 20th, Bloomberg reported that the Chinese government plans to comprehensively adjust the petrochemical industry, including eliminating small - scale facilities, upgrading old facilities, and shifting investment to new special materials. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually [3]. 3.2 Performance and Outlook of Each Variety 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: U.S. inventory is favorable, but the upside space for oil prices is expected to be limited. - **Main Logic**: EIA data shows strong demand in the U.S. refining sector last week, with rising exports and falling imports, and a decline in commercial crude oil inventories. However, in the future, crude oil inventories will face double pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and the accelerated production increase of OPEC+. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and short - term disturbances from the Russia - Ukraine negotiation should be noted [9]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price has shifted from a decline to a volatile state. - **Main Logic**: EIA has significantly lowered the oil price forecast, and the geopolitical premium has declined. However, the cost of asphalt is supported by the increase in oil prices due to the attack on the Druzhba pipeline. The supply shortage has been alleviated, but the demand is still not optimistic. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases [10]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium has returned, and high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly increased in a volatile manner. - **Main Logic**: EIA has lowered the oil price forecast and raised the OPEC production forecast. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The attack on Russian refineries has led to a return of the geopolitical premium, but the overall supply exceeds demand. - **Outlook**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease. The price will fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates following the crude oil price. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although it is driven by the increase in the diesel crack spread, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate following the crude oil price due to low valuation [13]. 3.2.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The news boosts the price, but the actual impact is limited, and the methanol futures price fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The domestic chemical capacity policy news boosts the price, but the number of old methanol production capacities is small, so the actual impact is limited. The decline in oil prices has put pressure on downstream olefins, which has a传导 effect on methanol. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [29]. 3.2.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The spot price has increased following the futures price, but the futures price has slightly declined as the market sentiment has returned to calm. Downstream buyers are still cautious and waiting for the official export to India. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment has a short - term impact, and the long - term trend will return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand [30]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Stimulated by petrochemical news, the price is supported. - **Main Logic**: Although the fundamentals change little, the macro - sentiment has a significant impact, driving the price up in the afternoon. The policy of eliminating backward production capacity boosts the confidence of long - position holders. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the EG09 - 01 reverse spread strategy [22]. 3.2.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: The oil price has stabilized slightly, and the sentiment in the domestic chemical market has warmed up again, strengthening the short - term support. - **Main Logic**: The crude oil price fluctuates and consolidates, and the decline slows down. The market reacts strongly to the anti - involution policy news in the chemical industry. South Korea's reduction of naphtha cracking capacity is expected to affect overseas imports. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the support at the price of 6600 [14]. 3.2.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Disturbed by petrochemical news, the market atmosphere has warmed up, and the support has strengthened. - **Main Logic**: PTA follows the rise of PX as the cost is stronger. The market sentiment in the chemical industry has warmed up, and the anti - involution expectation drives up the price. Although the downstream filament sales have declined, the chip sales have improved. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance in August [14]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. - **Main Logic**: The absolute price follows the upstream cost. The supply - demand situation is stable, and the processing margin is slightly repaired. The limited new production capacity and the expected increase in peak - season demand will support the price. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation and consolidation in the short term [23]. 3.2.11 Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost provides some support, but its own driving force is limited. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream polymerization cost and fluctuates upward. The market sentiment in the domestic chemical industry has warmed up, and the price is expected to be supported. The inventory is expected to decline slowly as the major manufacturers continue to cut production. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [25]. 3.2.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: Stimulated by the news at noon, but the fundamental support is limited, and PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The news of plant maintenance to solve the petrochemical over - capacity problem stimulates the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price fluctuates in the short term, and the propane price is low, which suppresses the PP valuation. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is still in the off - peak to peak - season transition period，with low operating rates in related industries. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [32]. 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL fluctuates following PP in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Although the local supply has decreased, the market is still in a wait - and - see state. The downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand. The PP - PL processing margin is around 600, which is considered reasonable. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [33]. 3.2.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: Stimulated by petrochemical news, the plastic price rebounded in the afternoon. - **Main Logic**: The news of plant maintenance boosts the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price fluctuates in the short term, and the global crude oil inventory is under pressure. The macro - level still has capital games, and the plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [31]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Disturbed by the anti - involution news in the petrochemical industry, the price rebounded from the intraday low. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation is expected to ease, and the IEA has lowered the global demand growth forecast, putting pressure on the oil market. Pure benzene has performed stronger than the cost this week, mainly due to factors such as the expected reduction in coking and hydro - benzene production, downstream replenishment, and port inventory reduction. - **Outlook**: There is an expectation of a small inventory reduction in August. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the July import data next week [18]. 3.2.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Disturbed by the anti - involution news in the petrochemical industry, the price rebounded from the intraday low. - **Main Logic**: The price has been fluctuating weakly recently. The positive factors include the slight improvement in the pure benzene market and the start of peak - season inventory replenishment by downstream industries. However, the negative factors are stronger, such as the new production capacity coming on stream and the limited peak - season demand. - **Outlook**: The main port inventory is sufficient, and the market is prone to price increases with volume decreases. The output is expected to increase slightly, and the rigid demand is stable, but the spot demand is weak, so the inventory will continue to accumulate [19]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Pressured by anti - dumping measures, the demand is affected, and PVC is cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the anti - involution expectation still exists. At the micro - level, the fundamentals are under pressure, with weak cost support. The production may decline slightly during the autumn maintenance, the downstream operating rate changes little, the export is under pressure due to anti - dumping measures, and the cost is moving down. - **Outlook**: The futures price is cautiously bearish due to the pressure on export expectations and weak cost support [35]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot performance is good, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the anti - involution expectation still exists. At the micro - level, the fundamentals are improving marginally, with increased demand from alumina production and downstream replenishment. However, the export is average, and the increase in maintenance in Shandong may lead to a slight decline in the operating rate. Attention should be paid to the impact of poor chlorine sales on the caustic soda production. - **Outlook**: The downstream is still replenishing inventory, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in market sentiment [36]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the changes in different time - period spreads [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, reflecting the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG are given, showing the price differences between different varieties [41]. 3.4 Index Performance - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined slightly on August 20, 2025 [282]. - **Energy Index**: On August 20, 2025, the energy index had a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.63%, a 1 - month decline of 4.94%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.71% [284].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating weakly [4][8] - Asphalt: Oscillating weakly [4][9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [4][10] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [4][11] - Methanol: Oscillating [21][22] - Urea: Oscillating strongly [4][23] - Ethylene glycol: Oscillating [16][17] - PX: Oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [13][14] - Short - fiber: Oscillating [18][20] - Bottle chips: Oscillating [19] - PP: Oscillating weakly [4][25][26] - Propylene: Oscillating [26][27] - Plastic: Oscillating weakly [4][24] - Pure benzene: Oscillating [14][15] - Styrene: Oscillating [15][16] - PVC: Oscillating cautiously and weakly [4][29] - Caustic soda: Oscillating [30] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil and coal prices are both weak, dragging down the chemical industry. Urea rises against the trend due to improved export expectations. Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating and weakly - biased mindset, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Accumulation pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. API data shows a decline in US crude and gasoline inventories last week. Globally, OPEC+ production increases have led to a counter - seasonal accumulation of on - land crude inventories. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [8] 3.1.2 Asphalt - The asphalt futures price of 3500 may change from support to pressure. EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may drive the geopolitical premium to decline. The supply tension has eased, and demand remains unoptimistic [9] 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Despite the attack on Russian refineries, high - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. EIA's adjustment of oil price and production expectations, along with increased supply and weak demand, contribute to the weak trend [10] 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate weakly following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and increased supply pressure [11] 3.1.5 Methanol - Cautiously monitor long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts. Methanol futures prices oscillate. The port inventory has increased, and downstream olefins prices are under pressure. There may be long - position opportunities in the far - month due to expected overseas shutdowns [21][22] 3.1.6 Urea - Export expectations are good, but transactions are cautious. The improvement in China - India relations promotes the upward trend. The market sentiment was temporarily stagnant but was reignited by the news of China - India relations [22][23] 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - Supply and demand both increase, and there is support at the lower price level. Domestic large - scale plants are restarting and having short - term shutdowns, and demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [16] 3.1.8 PX - There is short - term support at the lower level. The supply - demand pattern is relatively stable, and downstream demand shows signs of improvement [12] 3.1.9 PTA - It is looking for a direction in oscillation. The short - term trading logic lies in ongoing supply maintenance and expected demand improvement [13] 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - It fluctuates following upstream costs. Supply - demand fundamentals change little, and sales have slightly recovered, but the increase is limited [18] 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited. The price mainly follows raw materials, and the processing fee is compressed [19] 3.1.12 PP - Good refinery profits suppress valuation, and PP oscillates weakly. Oil prices are weak, propane prices are low, supply is increasing, and demand is in the peak - off - peak transition period [25][26] 3.1.13 Propylene (PL) - PL follows PP to oscillate and decline in the short term. Supply is abundant, but downstream follow - up is insufficient [26] 3.1.14 Plastic - Fundamental support is limited, and plastic oscillates weakly. Oil prices are weak, and the supply side has pressure [24] 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - It has insufficient driving force and oscillates within a narrow range. Geopolitical tensions are easing, and downstream profits are declining [14][15] 3.1.16 Styrene - Peak - season stocking has begun, but demand is limited. There are some positive factors such as improved pure benzene market and downstream stocking, but negative factors like increased supply and limited demand are more prominent [15][16] 3.1.17 PVC - Anti - dumping measures pressure demand, and PVC is cautiously weak. Upstream autumn maintenance may reduce production, and export expectations are under pressure [29] 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - Market sentiment is poor, dragging down the price. Fundamentals are marginally improving, but market sentiment is still affected [30] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [32][33][35] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text [36][48][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weakening trend with shocks, investors should adopt a weakening trend with shocks mindset and set the 5 - day moving average as the stop - loss point [4] - Asphalt: High - valued futures prices await a decline, absolute prices are over - valued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Weak and volatile [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Futures prices follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly [4] - Methanol: Spot prices are falling, futures prices fluctuate [4] - Urea: Positive export expectations, market confidence restored, the market rebounds upward [4] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory accumulation is not continuous, prices have support at the bottom [4] - PX: There is short - term support at the bottom [4] - PTA: Costs are supported, supply - demand drivers are limited, and there is no inventory accumulation pressure [4] - Short - fiber: Fluctuates following upstream costs [4] - Bottle chips: Costs have certain support, self - driven factors are limited [4] - PP: Good refinery profits suppress valuations, fluctuates weakly [4] - Propylene: Inventory pressure is not large, PL fluctuates in the short term [4] - Plastic: Supported by maintenance, fluctuates [4] - Pure benzene: Driven by insufficient factors, fluctuates within a narrow range [4] - Styrene: Peak - season stockpiling has begun one after another, but the expected demand is limited, and the overall situation is average [4] - PVC: Anti - dumping measures pressure demand, be cautious and bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Spot prices stabilize and rebound, the market is cautiously optimistic [4] 2. Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the crude oil market is gradually easing, and the market is trending weakly. The chemical industry follows and fluctuates. The pattern of chemical products is slightly stronger than that of crude oil, especially the aromatics segment is boosted by the strong gasoline cracking spread [2][3] - The crude oil market faces continuous inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The high - valued asphalt futures prices are expected to decline. High - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates weakly, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and fluctuates weakly. The methanol spot price is falling, and the futures price fluctuates. Urea has positive export expectations, and the market rebounds. Ethylene glycol has support at the bottom due to non - continuous port inventory accumulation. PX has short - term support, PTA has cost support and no inventory accumulation pressure, short - fiber follows upstream costs, bottle chips have cost support, PP fluctuates weakly, propylene fluctuates in the short term, plastic fluctuates with maintenance support, pure benzene fluctuates narrowly, styrene's demand is limited, PVC is cautiously bearish, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety Crude oil - Market news: Ukraine plans to buy $100 billion worth of US weapons with European funding, and reach a $50 billion agreement with US companies to produce drones. Multiple Palestinian factions agree to a cease - fire proposal. Ukraine attacks a Russian oil pump station [7] - Main logic: OPEC+ production increases lead to supply pressure, global on - land crude oil inventories accumulate against the season, and overseas refined oil gasoline inventories are high. Future crude oil inventories face double pressure from the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ accelerated production increases, and the monthly spread is under pressure. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7] Asphalt - Market news: The main asphalt futures contract closes at 3461 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong are 3730 yuan/ton, 3880 yuan/ton, and 3580 yuan/ton respectively [8] - Main logic: EIA significantly lowers the oil price forecast, the Russia - US Alaska meeting exceeds expectations, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drives the geopolitical premium to decline. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is still high, driving refinery operations to return. The demand for asphalt is not optimistic, and the current valuation is higher than that of crude oil, rebar, low - sulfur fuel oil, and high - sulfur fuel oil [8] High - sulfur fuel oil - Market news: The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closes at 2691 yuan/ton [8] - Main logic: EIA significantly lowers the oil price forecast and raises OPEC production. The market is affected by factors such as increased tariffs, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. China raises the fuel oil import tariff, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil feedstock decreases. The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread is still high and is supported by the weakening of crude oil [9] Low - sulfur fuel oil - Market news: The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closes at 3436 yuan/ton [11] - Main logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has risen recently, low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is expected to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [11] PX - Market news: On August 18, PX CFR China Taiwan price is 828(+4) dollars/ton, PX Korea FOB price is 806(+4) dollars/ton, etc. [13] - Main logic: Afternoon Asian trading session, crude oil prices rebound slightly, and PX follows the cost to strengthen. Fundamentally, maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the load is slightly increasing. The polyester peak season is approaching, and demand support is gradually strengthening. PX is in a tight supply - demand balance with low inventory, and the short - term downside space is expected to be limited [13] PTA - Market news: On August 18, PTA spot price is 4665(+6) yuan/ton, etc. [14] - Main logic: The cost has short - term support. Fundamentally, the supply side has a slight decline in load due to device maintenance, and downstream polyester and textile industries show signs of recovery. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure in August is narrowing. It is expected that short - term prices will mainly follow cost fluctuations [14] Pure benzene - Market news: On August 18, the closing price of the pure benzene 2603 contract is 6179, with a change of - 0.05%, etc. [15] - Main logic: The geopolitical situation is expected to ease further, and the International Energy Agency lowers the global demand growth forecast, which puts pressure on the oil market. Asian naphtha downstream ethylene cracking device operating rates remain low. Pure benzene performs stronger than the cost side this week, mainly affected by factors such as coking production restrictions, downstream rigid - demand restocking, and port inventory reduction. Downstream operating rates increase, but price increases are weak, and profits decline [17] Styrene - Market news: On August 18, the East China styrene spot price is 7250(0) yuan/ton, etc. [17] - Main logic: Recently, styrene prices have fluctuated weakly. Positive factors include a slight improvement in the pure benzene market and the start of peak - season stockpiling by downstream industries. Negative factors are more dominant, such as the new production capacity of Jingbosidaruixin device, the expected increase in existing supply, and poor white - goods production scheduling data [18] Ethylene glycol - Market news: On August 18, the EG main contract 2509 closes at 4346, a decrease of 28 from the previous trading day, etc. [18] - Main logic: Coal prices are under pressure, and the cost of ethylene glycol has limited guidance. Fundamentally, the supply side has great pressure, but port inventory accumulation is not continuous, and the overall accumulation range is not large. It is expected that prices will have strong support under the low - inventory pattern [19] Short - fiber - Market news: On August 18, the Zhejiang market polyester short - fiber spot price rises by 10 to 6490 yuan/ton ex - factory, etc. [20] - Main logic: The supply - demand fundamentals change little, downstream spinning mill loads and inventories remain stable, market orders start slowly, and raw material support is average. The absolute value of short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations and fluctuates in the short term [22] Bottle chips - Market news: On August 18, the East China market polyester bottle chip price closes at 5890, with a change of - 10, etc. [22] - Main logic: Rising raw material prices support bottle chips. Fundamentally, there are few changes. Attention should be paid to the restart of factory devices in September. Short - term prices follow upstream costs, and processing fees fluctuate within a range [23] Methanol - Market news: On August 18, the low - end price of methanol in Taicang spot is 2290 yuan/ton (- 20), etc. [24] - Main logic: On August 18, methanol futures prices fluctuate. The Inner Mongolia market price is slightly adjusted downward, but trading is okay. Port inventories increase. Downstream olefins are under pressure due to falling oil prices, which also affects methanol. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, long positions in the far - month can still be considered later [24] Urea - Market news: On August 18, 2025, the high - end and low - end prices of urea in the Shandong market are 1740 yuan/ton (+ 30 yuan/ton) and 1730 yuan/ton (+ 30 yuan/ton) respectively [24] - Main logic: Based on the actual export data from May to July and the existing export quota of 320 tons, the average monthly export in August and September needs to reach one million tons to meet the quota. Although the fundamental supply - demand is loose, market confidence recovers rapidly due to high export profits and expected high export volumes, and the market rebounds [25] Plastic (LLDPE) - Market news: On August 18, the mainstream price of LLDPE spot is 7300(0) yuan/ton, etc. [27] - Main logic: On August 18, the main plastic contract declines slightly. Oil prices fluctuate weakly in the short term, and there is still capital game at the macro level. The plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure, and overseas factors also need attention [27] PP - Market news: On August 18, the mainstream transaction price of East China PP drawing is 7000(- 30) yuan/ton, etc. [28] - Main logic: On August 18, the main PP contract fluctuates and declines. Oil prices fluctuate weakly in the short term, propane prices are weak, PP supply is increasing, demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, and the export window is limited. Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff games [29] Propylene (PL) - Market news: On August 18, PL fluctuates, and the low - end market price of Shandong PL is 6400 yuan/ton [29] - Main logic: On August 18, the main PL contract fluctuates. Propylene enterprise inventories are controllable, and offers are slightly increased. Downstream factories follow demand, and high - price transactions are limited. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the PP - PL polypropylene processing fee is the focus of the market [29] PVC - Market news: The benchmark price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4880(- 50) yuan/ton, etc. [31] - Main logic: At the macro level, there are still expectations of anti - involution, and policy orientation should be noted. At the micro level, PVC fundamentals are under pressure. Upstream autumn maintenance is about to start, downstream demand is rigid, export expectations are under pressure due to anti - dumping measures, and cost support is weak [31] Caustic soda - Market news: The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2625(+ 63) yuan/ton, etc. [32] - Main logic: At the macro level, there are still expectations of anti - involution, and policy orientation should be noted. At the micro level, the fundamentals are improving marginally. Alumina demand is increasing, non - aluminum demand is entering the peak season, and there is some restocking in the middle and lower reaches. Shandong maintenance increases in mid - to late August, and attention should be paid to whether the difficulty in liquid chlorine sales will force alkali plants to reduce production [32] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period spreads: Brent M1 - M2 is 0.55 with a change of 0, Dubai M1 - M2 is 0.9 with a change of 0.02, etc. [34] - Basis and inventory receipts: The basis of asphalt is 107 with a change of - 52, and the inventory receipts are 72850, etc. [35] - Inter - variety spreads: 1 - month PP - 3MA is - 140 with a change of 12, 1 - month TA - EG is 354 with a change of 50, etc. [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests that investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of weakening volatility, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - EIA and IEA hold an oversupply view of the future crude oil market, which has dampened market sentiment. The absolute value of oil prices has dropped to the lowest since June 5, and the monthly spread, taking Brent as an example, has fallen to the lowest since May. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains [2]. - When raw material prices fluctuate significantly, the supply - demand relationship of chemical products becomes secondary. Most chemical products' basis has slightly increased after the sharp decline on August 14. The operating rates of polyester downstream industries and the benzene - ethylene chain have improved to some extent. Caustic soda is the strongest - performing variety on August 14 [3]. - Overall, the oil and chemical industry is expected to be in a state of weakening volatility. Each specific product has its own market characteristics and trends, and investors are advised to use a weakening volatility mindset for investment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will influence the future sanctions on Russian oil. OPEC + production increases have led to supply pressure, and crude oil inventories face dual pressures. The short - term outlook is volatile, and the market should pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations [9]. - **Logic**: OPEC + production increases have prevented seasonal declines in crude oil inventories in the past two months. Overseas gasoline inventories are high, and future crude oil inventories will face pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and accelerated OPEC + production increases. If the meeting is optimistic about ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices are weakly volatile. The main contract closed at 3472 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions vary [9]. - **Logic**: EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations. After the meeting between Russian and US leaders, the market will refocus on negative factors. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is high, driving refinery operations to return. Demand for asphalt is still not optimistic, and its current valuation is relatively high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly volatile, with the main contract closing at 2700 yuan/ton [9]. - **Logic**: EIA has lowered oil price expectations and raised OPEC production forecasts. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. China has raised the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak. Although the cracking spread is high, the driving factors are weakening [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly, with the main contract closing at 3449 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although it is affected by the increase in diesel cracking spread, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. 3.1.5 Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, methanol's port inventory continues to accumulate, and it fluctuates downward; urea is temporarily undisturbed and the market is weak; ethylene glycol's cost support weakens and port inventory accumulates; etc. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of different varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.04 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties also show different trends. For example, asphalt's basis is 168 with a change of 31, and the number of warehouse receipts is 73550 [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 220 with a change of 110 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most energy and chemical products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term performance of the energy and chemical industry [7][9][11][12][14][15][17][18][21][22][24][25][27][28][29][30][31][33][34][35]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector as a whole is in an oscillatory pattern. The root cause of this oscillation lies in the divergence between the industry and the macro - environment, as well as the divergence between domestic products and foreign raw materials. Most chemical products are facing negative basis and increasing warehouse receipts [2]. - Crude oil is under pressure from supply increases and inventory accumulation, with a short - term oscillatory trend. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply and demand, and geopolitical situations, showing different oscillatory characteristics [7][9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - International crude oil futures are slightly weaker due to concerns about increased supply. The macro - environment is influenced by factors such as the postponement of high - tariff collection between China and the United States and US inflation data, which has led to speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts. The chemical product market is in the process of shifting the main positions from the September contract to the January contract [1]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The short - term outlook is oscillatory, and the price is relatively under pressure [7]. - **Main Logic**: The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin reduces concerns about Russian oil supply, and the geopolitical premium has declined. OPEC's production increase has brought supply pressure, and the crude oil inventory faces the dual pressure of the peak - to - decline in refinery operations and OPEC +'s accelerated production increase [7]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500 yuan/ton, and the futures price is expected to move in the direction of least resistance [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s production increase in September, the upcoming meeting between Russian and US leaders, and other factors have brought negative impacts. The supply tension has eased, and the demand outlook is not optimistic [9]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It is in a weak oscillatory state [10]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s production increase, the increase in heavy - oil supply, and the weakening of demand factors such as the decline in feedstock demand and weak gasoline demand in the US have led to an oversupply situation [10]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It follows the weak oscillation of crude oil [12]. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by the decline of crude oil, and also faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution [12]. 3.2.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The inland price has support, and it is in an oscillatory state [27]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in Inner Mongolia has tightened, supporting the price. The port inventory has increased, and the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices [27]. 3.2.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The downward trend of the futures price has暂缓, waiting for positive support [28]. - **Main Logic**: There is no effective fundamental support currently, but the low - price new orders have increased, and the market is supported by downstream buying at low prices [28]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The cost raw materials are differentiated, and its own driving force is limited, showing an oscillatory pattern [22]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw materials show a pattern of strong coal and weak oil, and the supply and demand are stable. The inventory accumulation in ports is not sustainable [22]. 3.2.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: The cost has stopped falling and stabilized, and the bottom support has been strengthened with the restart of downstream devices [15]. - **Main Logic**: The rebound of oil prices and the restart of downstream PTA devices have provided support, and the short - term price will oscillate with cost and sentiment [15]. 3.2.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The device maintenance has returned, and the polyester sales have cooled down, with an oscillatory trend [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is strong, but the supply has increased with the restart of devices, and the downstream polyester sales are not sustainable, so the supply - demand drive is weak [17]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It is supported by sentiment, and downstream yarn mills are stocking up opportunistically [24]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is rising, and downstream yarn mills are stocking up due to sentiment, but its own fundamental driving force is weak [24]. 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It is supported by raw materials, with an oscillatory pattern [25]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is strong, and the price follows the cost. The processing fee is slightly compressed, and the price is anchored to the cost [25]. 3.2.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance is stable, and it is in an oscillatory state [30]. - **Main Logic**: The coal and oil markets have an impact, the supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - to - peak season transition, and the export window is limited [30][31]. 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 is reasonable, and PL is in short - term oscillation [31]. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance in Shandong has increased, and the spot price is strong. The short - term price follows PP and methanol [31]. 3.2.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance has decreased, the inventory has increased, and it is in an oscillatory state [29]. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is oscillating weakly, the supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - to - peak season transition, and the overseas situation needs attention [29]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The import arrival has decreased, and downstream production has started, leading to increased buying interest and a shift to a Back structure [18]. - **Main Logic**: The reduction in import arrival and the start of downstream production have boosted the market sentiment, and the port inventory has decreased [18][20]. 3.2.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in factories [21]. - **Main Logic**: Pure benzene provides some cost support, but the supply - demand situation is weak, with new device production and potential inventory accumulation in factories [21]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: It is supported by cost and is in an oscillatory state [34]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - environment and supply - demand factors co - exist. The cost is expected to rise, the supply is increasing, and the export has improved [34]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price has stabilized, and it is in short - term oscillation [35]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with increased demand from alumina production and a slight improvement in export orders [35]. 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different energy and chemical products show different cross - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different contract periods [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of various products are presented, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [39]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spread data between different products are provided, which is useful for understanding the relative price relationships between different energy and chemical products [41]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report also mentions the basis and spread monitoring of specific chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., but detailed data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided text [42][54].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-08-12 能化链当前⽭盾较⼩，延续震荡整理态 势 原油期货价格经历了6月下旬以来最大的周度跌幅后，本周一价格略 略企稳。彭博报道，美国和俄罗斯官员正在制定相关协议，以确保莫斯科 对其军事行动期间占领的领土拥有控制权；他们表示，美国正努力争取乌 克兰及其欧洲盟友对该协议的支持，但这一点远未确定。Kpler数据显示 全球原油库存周度攀升，其中印度岸上库存大幅下滑，印度的进口节奏略 有变化。 板块逻辑： 化工链条整体延续震荡态势，煤炭延续升势，原油连跌七日后短暂也 有企稳预期；与此同时，受到高温炎热天气的影响，欧洲天然气期货业收 高，因高温会提升天然气发电的需求。化工本身变动较小，苯乙烯和纯苯 周度去库，但库存绝对值仍位于五年同期最高。PTA产业链条没有较大矛 盾，PX货源偏紧；涤纶长丝企业周末发起反内卷倡议，长丝产销升至25 0%；聚酯原料的需求短期仍无碍。烯烃亦是横盘整理格局，基差在周一走 弱。 原油：地缘担忧缓解，供应压力仍存 沥青：跌破3500重要支撑，沥青期价向阻力最小方向运行 高硫燃油：高硫燃油偏弱震荡 低硫燃油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report did not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the mid - term outlook for each variety, most are rated as "oscillating", indicating that the industry is expected to have price fluctuations within a certain range in the future 2 - 12 weeks [276]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry as a whole continues to show an oscillating and consolidating pattern, with an unclear trend. The prices of most varieties are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For example, the expectation of Russia - US negotiations has alleviated geopolitical premiums, and the supply and demand of various products have different impacts on prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the risk of Russian oil. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of Russia - US negotiations has led to a moderation of geopolitical premiums. Although the high operation of Chinese and American refineries currently supports demand, the pressure on refined oil inventories is expected to reappear, and OPEC + supply is in an accelerated release period. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, focusing on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is testing the support level, and asphalt futures prices are waiting for a direction. - **Main Logic**: The increase in OPEC + production and other factors have put pressure on crude oil, and asphalt futures prices are affected by crude oil. The spot market shows a pattern of stronger in the north and weaker in the south, and the sales pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating. - **Main Logic**: The increase in OPEC + production and the weakening of geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in heavy - oil supply. Domestic import tariffs have been raised, and downstream demand is weak. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will oscillate weakly [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the trend of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the increase in diesel cracking spreads, it also faces multiple negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and other factors, with limited demand space, it will follow the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The support from olefins is limited, and methanol oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has a short - term driving effect, and the port inventory has increased. The downstream olefin prices are under pressure, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [22]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Export information has been finalized, market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price may decline. - **Main Logic**: The export information did not meet market expectations, and combined with weak downstream demand, the futures price is under pressure. - **Outlook**: The futures price may decline in the short term, and attention should be paid to the further implementation of export information [23]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Coal - based plants are restarting, and delayed imported goods have led to port inventory accumulation. With weak supply - demand drivers, the price will remain low. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [17]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: Lack of drivers and guidance, maintaining oscillating consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The futures price oscillates, the cost end lacks guidance, and the supply - demand pattern has limited marginal changes. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [11]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Limited drivers, low - level consolidation for observation. - **Main Logic**: Multiple plants have short - term shutdowns and restarts, and the inventory has decreased. However, due to sufficient spot liquidity, the profit repair is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, focusing on the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [12]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand increase, with a slight reduction in inventory. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream raw materials, the factory load increases slightly, and downstream demand leads to a slight reduction in inventory. - **Outlook**: The processing fee is weakly stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The price is passively following, maintaining low - level consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream polyester raw materials, with weak supply - demand drivers and a decline in processing fees. - **Outlook**: The processing fee has support at the bottom, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [20]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The impacts of oil and coal are differentiated, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has a short - term boosting effect, while the oil price oscillates weakly. The supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [28]. 3.1.13 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: The PP - PL spread around 600 is relatively reasonable, and PL oscillates in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Propylene enterprise inventories are controllable, and the price follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [29]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance support is general, and plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates weakly, the macro - end has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Lack of drivers, pure benzene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment has declined, the price of crude oil has fluctuated, and the concentrated production of upstream and downstream plants has affected the supply - demand relationship. - **Outlook**: In August, the supply increases, but there is new downstream production, and the balance sheet is expected to have a slight reduction in inventory [14]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The downstream restocking is not sustainable, the supply has increased, and the market is worried about the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: The price may oscillate slightly weakly [16]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectation but weak reality, PVC mainly oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment is optimistic, but the fundamentals are under pressure, with an expected increase in production and stable downstream demand. - **Outlook**: The futures price oscillates [31]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is accelerating its decline, and the futures price is running weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment is optimistic, but the fundamentals show an increase in supply and a slow increase in demand, with inventory accumulation pressure. - **Outlook**: The spot price is accelerating its decline, and short - positions can take profits at low levels [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent M1 - M2 with a latest value of 0.61 and a change of - 0.01 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 232 with a change of 11, and the warehouse receipt is 76650 [35]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are different cross - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread with a latest value of - 385 and a change of 4 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].