1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in policy will continue to boost the terminal demand for chemicals. The prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The OPEC+ will hold a monthly video conference on January 4th to plan the organization's future production, and the market generally expects it to maintain the decision of "suspending the production increase in the first quarter". Geopolitical situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine are short - term supports for oil prices. The Chinese government has advanced the issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade - in, which will significantly boost styrene [2]. - The supply and demand of the chemical industry have been flat recently, with no major contradictions, and the overall trend will be volatile. The PTA spot processing fee has increased, and the operating enthusiasm of PTA enterprises will rise. The processing fee of downstream polyester filament has dropped to a three - year low, and the industrial chain profit has shifted. The spot liquidity of polyolefin has tightened, and the futures price will move sideways. The rebound of styrene is not optimistic due to the drag of raw material pure benzene and high inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. API data shows that US crude oil and refined product inventories continued to accumulate in the week of December 26th, and the total inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products is rising against the seasonal trend. The geopolitical prospects in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations. The decline in Venezuela's shipments is not obvious for now, but its crude oil exports are expected to decline later. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rises following the increase in crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the asphalt futures price. If there is a substantial supply disruption in the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory is starting to accumulate [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Be vigilant about the positive support for fuel oil from Iran's suspension of natural gas supply to Iraq. Although there are factors that support the high - sulfur fuel oil price, such as the potential resumption of fuel oil power generation in Iran and Iraq, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and there are medium - and long - term double negatives [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates [4]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions have emerged again, and combined with capital rotation, the upward trend in the pre - holiday market may continue [4]. - **Urea**: There is concentrated pre - holiday procurement, and urea is expected to be in a consolidation state [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average [4]. - **PX**: The expected supply - demand pattern of PX has weakened, and the price has回调 after rising. International oil prices are strong, providing cost support. However, due to the market's focus on supply increase expectations, the price has回调 after rising, and the terminal has slowed down its procurement rhythm [12]. - **PTA**: The maintenance of polyester plants is gradually being implemented. The supply - demand of PTA has weakened marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost in the short term [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The callback is limited, the processing fee is under pressure, and the willingness to reduce production is increasing. The cost support is strong, but the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the processing fee is under pressure [24]. - **Bottle Chip**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. The price of polyester bottle chips fluctuates following the raw materials, and the short - term driving force is limited [26]. - **Propylene**: The CP price in January has been raised, and the PDH is expected to reduce its operating rate, so the PL has strengthened slightly [4]. - **PP**: The CP price has been raised, and PP has strengthened slightly [4]. - **Plastic**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the holiday, and plastic is expected to fluctuate. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the fundamental support for plastic has increased slightly, but the driving force for both long and short positions is relatively weak [31]. - **Styrene**: The short - term market is dominated by sentiment, and the sustainability of export transactions should be monitored. The cost support from pure benzene is weak, but there are positive factors such as export orders and market sentiment stimulation. However, the supply and demand situation is not optimistic, and the upside is restricted [18]. - **PVC**: Short - sellers take profits before the holiday, and PVC is mainly in a fluctuating state. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand expectation has improved, but the high - inventory pressure still exists [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply in the short term [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given, along with their latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists different varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [284]. - **Energy Index**: On December 30, 2025, the energy index was 1093.97, with a daily increase of 0.49%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.18%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.91% [286].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-30 乌克兰停⽕协议短期难以达成，化⼯供 需偏弱⽽预期较好，期价延续震荡 乌克兰停火协议仍未有实质性进展，而中国在加大对原油的进口量， 油价延续震荡整理态势。彭博报道，美国特朗普总统12约28日在海湖庄园 与泽连斯基总统会谈后表示，双方取得了"进展"。泽连斯基则称，他已 向特朗普寻求为期30至50年的安全保障。俄罗斯当前仍未对协议表态。Kp ler数据显示，中国12月原油进口将创记录新高；我国财政部表示将在 2026年继续扩大财政支出范围，需求向好的预期也短暂支撑了油价。 板块逻辑： 化工整体处于震荡格局。周一液体化工库存大都攀升，纯苯最为突 出。截至12月29日当周，江苏纯苯港口库存环比增9.89%，处于五年周期 的最高库存量；苯乙烯周度库存下滑0.36%，乙二醇周度继续小幅累库。 聚烯烃的产量同比依旧维持高位，尤其是PE和LLDPE，即使如此，在宏观 的利好带动下，化工都出现了企稳迹象。当前的主力05合约距离交割时间 较远，现货供需面的弱势尚不足以对期价有立竿见影的利空效果，01合约 即将退出历史舞台。中国原油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry shows a continued differentiation. The polyester industry chain is in a seasonal off - peak, while the styrene industry chain has both supply and demand increasing. Polyolefins have weak supply and demand overall [2]. - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, and liquid chemical inventories are high, so the chemical industry's rebound will be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - International crude oil futures are in a Christmas holiday. Domestic SC has been relatively strong recently, and its near - end structure has turned back to Back. Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. Cold snaps in China may boost coal demand [1]. 3.2 Sector Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester and weaving开工 continue to decline. PTA开工 increases by 0.7% month - on - month, and ethylene glycol开工 increases by 0.2% month - on - month. The industry chain remains relatively healthy [2]. - PTA: The market is testing the downstream's ability to bear low processing fees. Prices follow costs to oscillate at high levels, and processing fees remain within a range. Consider going long on the TA05 contract on pullbacks and taking partial profits around 5100 - 5200. Also, consider a positive spread trade on TA05 - 09 [14][15]. - Short - fiber: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and compressed profits. Prices follow the upstream to oscillate strongly, and processing fees are under short - term pressure [24][25]. - Bottle - chip: Upstream raw material costs support prices. The absolute value follows raw materials to fluctuate, and processing fees are slightly under pressure [26]. 3.2.2 Styrene Industry Chain - The styrene industry chain has both supply and demand increasing. Its own开工 increases by 2.25% month - on - month, and downstream开工 also rises, especially the weekly开工 of PS increases by 4.1% [2]. - Styrene: Exports affect the market, and it is strong intraday. It is about to enter a period of inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in destocking. Exports can stimulate short - term rebounds [19][20]. 3.2.3 Polyolefin Industry Chain - Polyolefins have weak supply and demand overall. A 500,000 - ton full - density plant in South China has started trial production, increasing pressure on PE. Low - price promotions by upstream suppliers have led to a decline in the overall inventory of production enterprises in the industry chain [2]. - PP: Basis support is limited, and it oscillates. The supply - demand pattern remains under short - term pressure [35]. - LLDPE: Maintenance needs time to increase, and it oscillates. The demand is gradually entering the off - peak season [34]. 3.3 Variety Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are accelerating, and it continues to oscillate. The market may return to a pattern of weak supply - demand and continuous inventory accumulation after the geopolitical situation stabilizes [8]. - **LPG**: The strong reality is weakening. Pay attention to the implementation of downstream production cuts [3]. - **Asphalt**: The US is containing Venezuela without taking direct action. Its futures price oscillates higher. The absolute price is over - estimated [9]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price oscillates higher. The demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region [9]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price oscillates higher. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, but its current valuation is low [9]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market remains stable. It is generally considered to oscillate [3][29][30]. - **Urea**: Demand follows up, and sentiment is boosted. The price rises and then oscillates. Supply pressure persists, and demand support may not be long - lasting [30][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply reduction is slow, and there is no continuous positive news. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and long - term inventory accumulation pressure remains large [21][22]. - **PX**: Short - term sentiment fermentation takes time. It remains high in China, but downstream negative feedback may increase as the off - peak season deepens [13]. - **PVC**: Overseas production capacity is exiting, and it is supported again. Although supply has improved marginally, the rebound space may be limited [37][38]. - **Caustic Soda**: Market sentiment has weakened, and it oscillates downward. The medium - term fundamental outlook is poor, but the valuation is low [39][40]. 3.4 Variety Data Monitoring 3.4.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 being 0.44 with a change of - 0.07, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being - 52 with a change of 30 [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, asphalt's basis is - 75 with a change of 1, and its warehouse receipts are 54,100 [43]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 218 with a change of - 3 [45]. 3.4.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text for this part. 3.5 Index Data - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index is 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index is 2254.18, down 0.17% [287]. - The energy index on December 25, 2025, has a daily decline of 0.23%, a 5 - day increase of 3.15%, a 1 - month decline of 0.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.00% [289].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指反弹持续，贵金属小幅回调 ——中信期货晨报20251226 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现金 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 李度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4610.6 | 0.344 | 1.85% | 3.09% | -0.16% | 11729X | | | 上证50期货 | 3034 | 0 23% | 0.92% | 2.53% | 1.51% | 13.29% | | | 中证500期货 | 7320.6 | 1 00 00 % | 3.76% | 7.64% | 0.41% | 28 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-25 煤油价格延续震荡整理，聚烯烃基差⼤ 幅⾛弱 原油和煤炭价格本周三延续弱势震荡格局。圣诞前夕原油市场成交量 低迷，油价维持窄幅震荡走势。美国仍在委内瑞拉海岸附近追踪第三艘油 轮。俄罗斯原油海上浮仓库存持续累积，较8月底增幅达48%；美国针对委 内瑞拉的制裁行动，可能引发俄罗斯原油运输商与买家的担忧。环渤海港 口动力煤市场仍维持偏弱走势。临近年底，产地完成年度任务后，停减产 煤矿增加，市场供应略有收缩；下游用户采购积极性一般，刚需跟进为 主，终端库存维持高位。现在处于"迎峰度冬"中期，关注寒潮来临时煤 炭能否因此企稳。 板块逻辑： 周三日盘前期弱势的烯烃品种出现集体反弹，这可能是市场对后市预 期的改变，也可能是对冲头寸获利平仓所致。从EG产业链本身看，有我国 华南72万吨装置下个月停车计划，也有伊朗50万吨装置当前顺利重启的消 息，净检修量占全球产能比例约为0.39%。EG的反弹可能是一种底部震 荡，尚不构成反转的充分条件。聚烯烃期货反弹，现货则以下跌为主，尤 其是PE各型号现货均环比走弱，导致两品种的基差再度走 ...

板块逻辑： 对2026年商品期货的充分讨论与分析后，在主力合约相继转移至05合 约后，市场开始进入了资金主导的预期交易。聚烯烃被作为空配，期价再 创新低；PX因供需偏紧的预期，成为多配首选，利润创年内新高。这种极 致的价差也很可能因为资金的扰动出现反向波动，关注强势品种月差的阶 段性见顶。周一公布库存的三大液化品种，EB、BZ和EG，全部都实现了库 存的环比走高，BZ库存甚至环比增加5%，BZ和EB港口库存位于五年最高， EG库存也向五年中位靠拢。 原油：俄乌及委内地缘持续扰动，油价延续震荡 沥青：美委局势再度升温，沥青期价上涨 高硫燃油：地缘带动高硫燃油期价上涨 低硫燃油：低硫燃油跟随原油上涨 甲醇：沿海内地均偏僵持，甲醇震荡看待 尿素：供应需求双弱，盘面震荡整理 乙二醇：负荷仍有抬升空间，现货流通宽松未改 PX：情绪助推下，PX维持偏强整理，利润持续扩张 PTA：成本提振下预期向好 短纤：上游成本支撑转强，但无法完全转嫁，利润压缩 瓶片：上游原料成本支撑价格 丙烯：现货偏强，PDH降开工预期，PL震荡 PP：检修预期提振，PP震荡 塑料：检修支撑有限，塑料震荡偏弱 苯乙烯：新增出口成交&芳烃氛围偏强，苯乙 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 能源化⼯组研究团队 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-19 地缘仍扰动原油市场，化⼯预期⼒量开 始主导 美国劳工统计局周四公布的数据显示，剔除波动性较大的食品和能源 的核心消费者价格指数(CPI)11月同比上涨2.6%，同比增速创2021年初以 来最低，持续数月顽固的物价压力有所缓和。CPI公布后，美国股指期货 扩大涨幅，美债收益率和美元走低。受元旦和新年假期的临近，原油成交 略降，这可能会放大价格波动。美国如何制裁俄罗斯，迫使后者愿意进行 和平谈判，以及委内瑞拉的原油供应受影响程度，这是近期影响油价的关 键变量。 板块逻辑： 随着大部分化工主力逐步从01合约转向05合约，预期交易将慢慢成为 主线，因当前距离05合约有近半年的时长。化工实际需求逐步进入淡季， 开工在冬季通常处于较高开工，化工05合约当前更是一种偏震荡态势。即 使春季检修规模较大，当前的高库存如何消化，春节期间下游停工又会有 新的累库，这部分压力如何缓解，这些都会加大05的波动率。苯乙烯周度 自身开工环比增2.4%，下游开工下降2-3%不等；PTA自身开工环比持平， 下游聚酯维持在9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-17 俄乌和平谈判推动油价下⾏，化⼯产业 端积极反抗低利润低价格 俄乌和平谈判取得进展，原油价格跌破一个半月以来的震荡区间下 沿。乌克兰总统表示已与美国达成一项协议，以通过国会投票使安全保障 具有法律约束力；一位美国官员表示，特朗普政府在最近的谈判中向乌克 兰提出了强有力的"类似第五条"的安全保障。接下来的谈判重点是俄罗 斯会如何回应。当前随着基准油价和俄罗斯原油贴水的回落，俄罗斯原油 出口商每桶仅能获得略超过40美元的收入，低油价和财政收入也会从另一 面对俄实施和谈的压力。原油近期实现了绝对值和月差的同步回落。 板块逻辑： 化工近期走势明显强于原油，又有更多品种和企业宣布了检修计划。 周二美国西湖化学发布新闻稿，宣布关停北美部分PVC和苯乙烯装置，该 企业PVC产能为45.4万吨，苯乙烯为26万吨，占这两个品种总产能比例约 为0.65%和0.5%。产能占比虽微不足道，传递出的信息却较为重大，即全 球化工行业的去产能在持续进行。当日也有更多的乙二醇装置宣布了检修 计划，产业企业都在对低价格低利润做出积极的反馈，空方 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-16 中国表需较好难敌供应⼤增，原油带领 化⼯延续偏弱格局 彭博根据我国原油加工量和成品油净进口推算出我国的石油表需， 11月同比增长4.53%，1-11月同比增长3.32%。中国的石油需求比市场年初 预估地表现要好，而影响价格的另一端是供给，全球的供给增速远超需 求。随着俄罗斯原油开始逐步被买家接受，原油的地缘溢价出现回落，印 度2025年12月购买俄油量预估为130万桶/日（Kpler数据），而一周多前 预估值仅有50-60万桶/日；另一个重要买家近期也有买盘涌现。油价临近 近期一个月多月的震荡平台下沿，月差和绝对值的同步走弱预估市场有破 位的可能。 板块逻辑： 原油无疑是化工端最大的方向指引，化工供需格局的边际转强将以价 差、基差、利润等形式体现，原油的弱势决定了化工难有单边走高。周一 液体化工库存公布，MEG周度继续累库，乙二醇库存从五年最低逐步升至 五年中位水平；纯苯华东港口库存周度持平，同比增速仍高达72%；苯乙 烯华东港口周度略去库，环比下降8.2%，绝对值仍是五年最高。1月合约 主力资金逐步转移至5 ...