由于俄乌战争出乎意料的持续时间过长，加上俄罗斯军队在战场上的表现时好时坏，使得人们不禁开始思考，"如果俄罗斯最终失败，中国应该如何应对可 能出现的局势变化？"我们必须清楚，不管俄罗斯最终是胜利还是失败，中国都应当为不同的可能情况做好充分的准备。 如果俄罗斯的结果和失败的假设差不多，那么即使俄罗斯最终获胜，我们仍然需要做好三件事情。许多人可能会感到疑惑，既然假设俄罗斯会战败，中国就 应该加快能源多元化布局，避免未来中俄之间的能源供应通道被中断。那么如果俄罗斯赢了，为什么我们还需要继续推进这一政策呢？ 其实，答案并不复杂——如果俄罗斯赢得了战争，俄罗斯的能源出口格局会发生显著变化，情况不再是"被迫转向东方"。届时，俄罗斯将有更多自主选择的 空间，它可能会选择加强与欧洲的能源合作，或者继续与中国保持合作。随着这种自主权的增加，俄罗斯可能会调整对中国的能源供应政策，甚至可能减少 我们当前享有的优惠条件。 即使这些优惠条件没有马上发生变化，我们也不能忽视对俄罗斯能源的过度依赖。我们必须警惕俄罗斯可能利用"能源价格杠杆"来威胁中国的能源安全。如 果俄罗斯胜利，它不仅会在能源领域拥有更多的自主权，其国际影响力也会大幅提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guodian Power's net profit for 2024 reached a historical high, reflecting strong financial performance despite a slight decline in revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Guodian Power achieved operating revenue of 179.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.00% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.83 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.28%, marking the highest net profit since the company's listing [1]. - The company completed a total power generation of 459.45 billion kWh and grid-connected power generation of 436.68 billion kWh, with respective year-on-year growth of 2.00% and 2.08% [2]. Group 2: Dividend Distribution - Guodian Power plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.1 yuan per 10 shares at the end of 2024, totaling 1.962 billion yuan, in addition to a mid-year dividend of 0.9 yuan per 10 shares, bringing the total dividends for the year to 3.567 billion yuan [2]. - The total dividends represent 36.28% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [2]. - Since its listing, Guodian Power has distributed a cumulative dividend of 28.348 billion yuan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3]. Group 3: Operational Capacity - As of the end of 2024, Guodian Power's installed capacity reached 111.7 million kW, with a diverse energy portfolio including thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power [1]. - The company’s operational capacity includes 74.63 million kW of thermal power, 14.95 million kW of hydro power, 9.84 million kW of wind power, and 1.23 million kW of solar power [1]. Group 4: Management and Governance - The high dividend payout ratio reflects Guodian Power's strong profitability and sound financial condition, indicating management's optimistic outlook for future development [2]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout strategy, which is seen as a reflection of its robust operational status and effective cash flow management [3].