由于俄乌战争出乎意料的持续时间过长，加上俄罗斯军队在战场上的表现时好时坏，使得人们不禁开始思考，"如果俄罗斯最终失败，中国应该如何应对可 能出现的局势变化？"我们必须清楚，不管俄罗斯最终是胜利还是失败，中国都应当为不同的可能情况做好充分的准备。 如果俄罗斯的结果和失败的假设差不多，那么即使俄罗斯最终获胜，我们仍然需要做好三件事情。许多人可能会感到疑惑，既然假设俄罗斯会战败，中国就 应该加快能源多元化布局，避免未来中俄之间的能源供应通道被中断。那么如果俄罗斯赢了，为什么我们还需要继续推进这一政策呢？ 其实，答案并不复杂——如果俄罗斯赢得了战争，俄罗斯的能源出口格局会发生显著变化，情况不再是"被迫转向东方"。届时，俄罗斯将有更多自主选择的 空间，它可能会选择加强与欧洲的能源合作，或者继续与中国保持合作。随着这种自主权的增加，俄罗斯可能会调整对中国的能源供应政策，甚至可能减少 我们当前享有的优惠条件。 即使这些优惠条件没有马上发生变化，我们也不能忽视对俄罗斯能源的过度依赖。我们必须警惕俄罗斯可能利用"能源价格杠杆"来威胁中国的能源安全。如 果俄罗斯胜利，它不仅会在能源领域拥有更多的自主权，其国际影响力也会大幅提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of international trade relations, particularly focusing on the U.S.-led tariff strategy against China and India, which has faced unexpected resistance from traditional allies like the EU and Japan [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Strategy - The U.S. is attempting to pressure allies to impose tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods, aiming to frame their trade as support for adversarial nations like Russia [1]. - The U.S. has taken steps such as placing numerous Chinese tech firms on an entity list and threatening bans on platforms like TikTok to assert its position [1]. Group 2: European Response - The EU has rejected U.S. calls for tariffs, emphasizing the importance of its trade relationship with China, which exceeds €800 billion annually [3]. - European leaders are prioritizing their economic interests over U.S. demands, particularly in light of ongoing energy crises [3]. Group 3: Japan's Position - Japan has responded cautiously, citing difficulties in implementing U.S. tariff requests and referencing WTO rules to justify its stance [5]. - The Japanese economy heavily relies on exports to China, with significant contributions from major corporations like Toyota and Sony [5]. Group 4: China and India's Countermeasures - China has strategically responded by launching anti-dumping investigations against U.S. chemical and agricultural products while adjusting its rare earth export policies [5]. - India has criticized U.S. tariffs as contrary to free trade principles while strengthening energy ties with Russia and expanding trade with the Middle East and Africa [5]. Group 5: U.S. Internal Contradictions - Within the U.S., there is significant debate among lawmakers regarding the legal basis for tariffs, with farmers expressing concerns over the impact on soybean exports [7]. - Public sentiment is against the tariffs, with 62% of Americans believing they will lead to higher prices [7]. Group 6: Shifts in International Relations - The article highlights a redefinition of ally relationships, with the EU establishing risk-reduction funds and Japan advancing the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) [9]. - Emerging countries are increasingly adept at utilizing international trade rules, as evidenced by a 40% increase in trade remedy cases initiated by China [9]. Group 7: Global Cooperation - The conclusion of the Madrid talks signifies a return to negotiation despite tensions, underscoring the necessity for countries to collaborate on global challenges like climate change and food security [10]. - The article suggests that the era of unilateral power is waning, with future success belonging to nations that can balance competition with cooperation [10]. Group 8: Multipolarity - The expansion of BRICS, ASEAN's neutrality, and the African Union's inclusion in the G20 indicate a restructuring of the global power landscape [11].