Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has called for EU member states to initiate natural gas storage preparations early to address uncertainties in the energy market caused by the situation in the Middle East [1]. Group 1 - The European Commission highlighted that the global energy market is experiencing increased volatility due to the Middle East situation, although the overall energy supply in the EU remains secure [1]. - EU Energy Commissioner Jozef Sikela emphasized the need for coordinated action to ensure smooth replenishment of natural gas reserves before winter [1]. - Early initiation of gas storage is crucial to extend the injection period, alleviate price pressures, and avoid risks associated with concentrated replenishment at the end of summer [1].

Group 1 - Oil prices are rising due to recent Iranian attacks on UAE energy infrastructure and a tanker incident in the Gulf of Oman, raising concerns about military escorts for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market may face more significant long-term impacts from the blockade compared to the oil market, as LNG production is more concentrated [1] - Qatar supplies approximately 20% of global LNG, with the Ras Laffan facility offline since March 2nd, making it increasingly difficult to restart the facility [2] Group 2 - Nearly 90% of LNG that passes through the Strait of Hormuz is directed towards Asia, where buyers are urgently trying to compensate for lost cargoes [3] - JKM pricing has exceeded $20 per MMBTU, prompting some ships originally destined for Europe to redirect to Asia for better prices, coinciding with the start of the European gas injection season [3]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. oil companies are urging the government to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to stabilize oil prices, but the government has responded passively, stating there is currently nothing that can be done [1]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Prices - The ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to further increases in international oil prices, impacting the global energy market and putting pressure on the global economy [1]. - ExxonMobil's CEO warned that market volatility may result in rising oil prices and potential shortages of refined oil products [1]. Group 2: Government Response - U.S. government officials acknowledge that oil prices are likely to continue rising but have indicated that there are no immediate actions they can take to address the situation [1]. - A senior government official stated that the administration is aware of the price increases but feels powerless to intervene at this time [1]. Group 3: Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - Approximately 20% of global oil transportation passes through the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting its critical role in the energy supply chain [2]. - Qatar, as one of the top three liquefied natural gas exporters globally, relies almost entirely on the Strait of Hormuz for its LNG exports, which account for about 20% of global supply [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 12, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures 2605 rose significantly and then narrowed their gains, continuing to strengthen overall [5]. - The news has significantly boosted the expected prices in the coal - coke market. From a fundamental perspective, as time passes, the low steel production will eventually conflict with the warming spring demand. It is expected that the increase in steel mill production in the future will boost the coal - coke prices to fluctuate and strengthen, but the later rebound path is still unclear, and investors or operators need to prepare for long - term market fluctuations, especially pay attention to possible changes in the Middle East situation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1现货市场动态与技术面走势 - On March 12, the quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke flat - price index at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The low - sulfur main coking coal prices in Tangshan, Lvliang, Linfen, Handan, Heze, and Pingdingshan were 1455, 1483, 1450, 1380, 1430, and 1630 yuan/ton respectively, with Linfen's price dropping by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - On March 12, the daily KDJ indicators of the coke 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J - value and K - value turning up and the D - value continuing to decline; the daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2605 contract were rising, with the J - value turning up and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise. The daily MACD red bars of the coke and coking coal 2605 contracts have been expanding for 2 consecutive trading days [8]. 3.1.2后市展望 - From March 6 to March 12, the prices of domestic and international crude oil and some chemical products rose significantly because after the US - Israeli military strike on Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz, an important energy transportation channel, was basically closed, and some oil fields in Iraq and Kuwait began to show a shutdown trend due to storage capacity issues. The sharp rise in international energy prices has driven up the prices of chemicals, coal, and some agricultural products [10]. - The first round of price cuts for coke spot was implemented on March 6. Recently, independent coking enterprises have turned losses into profits, and their coke production has declined from the high since mid - December last year; the coke inventory of steel mills has significantly declined, while the coke inventory of ports and coking enterprises has increased. From early March to March 7, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal first increased and then decreased, generally remaining at a relatively high level of 17.5 - 20.2 tons. However, the coking coal inventory of steel mills and coking plants has significantly declined in the past 3 weeks, reaching new lows since late June and late July last year respectively [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Liugang Co., Ltd. announced that the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the People's Government of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region has agreed that Guangxi Liuzhou Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. can apply to the Shanghai Stock Exchange to privately issue exchangeable corporate bonds worth no more than 2 billion yuan (inclusive) with some of its A - shares as the underlying assets [11]. - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the global automobile sales volume in 2025 was 96.89 million, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In January 2026, the world automobile sales volume reached 7.18 million, a year - on - year increase of 1%. With the relative slowdown of the Chinese and US auto markets, the growth of the world auto market sales volume in January 2026 also slowed down. The Chinese auto market has generally performed well, and its share in the world has continued to increase since 2020, reaching 33.8% in 2023, 34.2% in 2024, and 35.4% in 2025 [11]. - According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, China exported 35.8985 million household appliances in February 2026; the cumulative export volume from January to February was 80.2852 million, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% [11]. - The 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed to put 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves into the market to deal with the disruption of the oil market caused by the Middle East war. IEA members hold more than 1.2 billion barrels of emergency inventory, and another 600 million barrels of industrial inventory are held by the government as an obligation. This is the sixth coordinated inventory release in the history of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which was established in 1974 [11]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development released a report on March 10, pointing out that the tense situation in the Middle East has seriously disrupted the shipping activities in the Strait of Hormuz, which may have a chain effect on the global energy supply, shipping costs, and food prices, and increase the economic pressure on developing countries. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade. After the escalation of the regional situation, the ship traffic volume through the strait has significantly decreased recently. After the conflict escalated, the daily traffic volume once dropped sharply, with a decline of about 97% [12]. - Despite the major supply disruptions and sharp oil price fluctuations in the Middle East Gulf region since the outbreak of the US - Iran war on February 28, OPEC has maintained its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts unchanged. OPEC expects that the global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 106.53 million barrels per day; in 2027, it will increase by 1.34 million barrels per day, reaching 107.87 million barrels per day. It is expected that the supply from non - OPEC countries will increase by 630,000 barrels per day in 2026, to 54.83 million barrels per day; in 2027, it will increase by 610,000 barrels per day, to 55.44 million barrels per day [12]. - According to CCTV News, on the evening of March 11 local time, Iranian President Pezeshkiyan posted on his social platform, saying that when talking with the leaders of Russia and Pakistan, he reiterated Iran's commitment to maintaining regional peace. Pezeshkiyan said that the "only way" to end the current war provoked by the United States and Israel is to recognize Iran's legitimate rights, pay war compensation, and have a firm guarantee from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression [12]. - On March 11 local time, the energy ministers of the Group of Seven issued a joint statement, saying that all parties in principle support taking active measures to deal with the current situation, including using strategic energy reserves when necessary. The statement said that the energy ministers of the Group of Seven held a video conference on the 10th, and Fatih Birol, the director of the International Energy Agency, participated in the meeting. The meeting discussed the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global energy market, including the security of oil and gas supplies and energy prices. The statement said that the G7 member countries will closely coordinate with the International Energy Agency and its member countries, continuously monitor the energy market trends, and be prepared to take all necessary measures when necessary [12]. - Saudi Aramco announced its fourth - quarter and full - year performance reports for 2025 on the 10th and announced a share repurchase plan of up to $3 billion. The company also warned about the Middle East geopolitical situation, saying that if the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, the global oil market will face "catastrophic consequences." Saudi Aramco's performance report shows that the company's net profit in 2025 was about $93.4 billion, a year - on - year decline of 12.1%, falling short of expectations. Saudi Aramco President and CEO Nasser revealed that the company has formulated contingency plans for various scenarios and is currently transporting oil from the eastern oil - producing area to the Yanbu Port on the Red Sea in the west through its "East - West Pipeline." He added that as customers adjust their transportation routes, it is expected that this channel will reach a full - load capacity of 7 million barrels per day in the next few days [12]. - According to the latest data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the gasoline price per gallon has risen by another 4 cents, and the national average price has risen to $3.58 per gallon, the highest level in more than 21 months. In the past week, the average gasoline price in the United States has increased by 38 cents; in the past month, it has increased by 64 cents, the largest weekly and monthly increase since early March 2022. At that time, after the outbreak of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, causing sharp fluctuations in oil prices. Calculated on a monthly basis, the current gasoline price has increased by about 22% compared with a month ago [12]. - German Federal Minister of Economic Affairs and Energy Katrin Riche said on March 11 that due to the soaring global energy prices caused by the US - Israeli military strike on Iran, Germany will release 19.51 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to ease the pressure of rising oil prices. Riche said at a press conference that Germany will release oil reserves at the suggestion of the International Energy Agency to send a clear signal to the market and suppress high - risk premiums and speculative profits. Germany has used its strategic oil reserves three times, during the Gulf War in the 1990s, after Hurricane Katrina hit the United States in 2005, and during the interruption of oil exports due to the Libyan war in 2011 [13]. - Early on March 12 local time, the South Korean government said it would release 22.46 million barrels of oil reserves in response to the IEA's 400 - million - barrel oil supply plan. According to South Korean sources, as of the end of February, South Korea had a total of 100 million barrels of crude oil reserves, which can ensure 208 days of domestic oil supply, ranking sixth in the world. In response to the impact of the recent global oil price increase, the South Korean government is implementing price control measures, and the market supply price has slightly declined after the increase [13]. - According to CNN News 18, after India sought to ensure the safe passage of crude oil and natural gas through key waterways, Iran has allowed Indian - flagged oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz through diplomatic communication. People familiar with the matter said that the Indian - flagged oil tankers "Pushpak" and "Parimal" have safely passed through the strait. In the context of the ongoing regional conflict, ships related to the United States, Europe, and Israel still face restrictions [13]. - According to foreign media such as Bangladesh's "Daily Star," Bangladesh has formally requested the United States for a temporary exemption to allow the country to purchase Russian oil. The Bangladeshi side said that this move is necessary to ensure the country's energy supply and support the development of the national economy. Amir Hosru Mahmud Chaudhury, the Minister of Finance and Planning of Bangladesh, confirmed that this request was made during talks with US officials. He cited the precedent that "India has obtained a temporary exemption to purchase Russian oil. We have shown that if India can get such an opportunity, Bangladesh should also get it." [13]. - The Indian Ministry of Coal said on March 11 that India has sufficient coal supply to meet the unprecedented surge in demand in summer. The data provided by the ministry shows that India's total coal inventory is about 210 million tons, which is sufficient to meet about 88 days of consumption [13]. - The commodity strategy team of ING Bank said in a report that the IEA's plan to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves is not enough to make up for the supply loss in the Persian Gulf region. If other countries are assumed to adopt a similar schedule, the daily release volume will be about 3.3 million barrels, far lower than the current supply loss in the Persian Gulf [13]. - On March 11 local time, Slovak Prime Minister Fico urgently convened a cabinet meeting and announced a measure to stabilize oil prices. In the next five days, Slovak oil companies promised to freeze fuel prices and will not raise prices due to the current international situation. Fico emphasized that the goal of the Slovak government is to keep fuel prices lower than those in neighboring Austria in the long term. It is reported that this temporary freeze on oil prices is to buy time to stabilize the market. After five days, the Slovak government will meet with Slovak oil companies again to jointly discuss and determine the next - step response strategy [14]. 3.3数据概览 - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the spot summary price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national average daily hot metal production, the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of sample mines, the inventory of clean coal and raw coal in sample mines, the coking coal inventory of ports/coking plants/steel mills, the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the May contract, and the basis between Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the May contract [15][16][25][27][28][29].

Core Insights - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is significantly impacting global economic stability, particularly affecting food and energy prices, which in turn influences daily life and economic conditions in countries like China [3][5][10]. Global Supply Chain Impact - The conflict has led to instability in global supply chains, with recent threats from Russian officials indicating potential escalations if the U.S. continues military support for Ukraine [5]. - The likelihood of a ceasefire remains low, which will continue to disrupt global energy and food trade patterns [5][10]. Military and Civilian Casualties - Ukrainian forces are facing severe losses in key battle areas, with ongoing military operations resulting in high casualties on both sides [9]. - Civilian infrastructure is under significant strain, with recent attacks leading to fatalities and damage to energy facilities, exacerbating global energy market tensions [10][11]. Global Food Supply Chain Pressure - Ukraine and Russia are critical players in global food supply, and the conflict has disrupted agricultural production and shipping routes, leading to heightened food price volatility [11]. - The instability poses a significant risk to food security, especially for developing countries reliant on imports from these regions [11]. China's Response Strategy - China is focusing on stabilizing its economy through diversified energy cooperation and enhancing domestic agricultural production to mitigate the impact of rising global food prices [15][18]. - The country is increasing energy collaboration with regions like Central Asia and the Middle East while also investing in renewable energy sources [15]. - In agriculture, China aims for self-sufficiency in staple crops and is expanding food trade partnerships to ensure stable domestic prices amidst global fluctuations [15][18]. China's Peace Efforts and Global Role - China maintains a neutral stance in the conflict, advocating for peaceful resolutions and humanitarian aid, reflecting its role as a responsible global player [16][18]. - The country's proactive measures in promoting peace and stability are seen as essential for restoring normalcy in global food and energy markets [16][18].

Core Insights - Oil prices are declining as the market absorbs indications that energy infrastructure is not Iran's primary target for retaliation [1] - There are signs that the U.S. may have received prior warnings about the attacks, suggesting that the recent actions are more of a face-saving measure rather than a genuine escalation [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - Israel's airstrikes on Iranian oil facilities mark a significant escalation in the Middle East, potentially destabilizing Iran's already fragile energy sector [1][2] - The attacks have led to a surge in U.S. crude oil prices, which spiked by 14% at one point, closing around $73 per barrel, reflecting heightened market volatility [5][6] - The geopolitical tensions are creating a more unpredictable energy market environment, with traders increasingly concerned about oil price fluctuations [8] Group 2: Impact on Energy Infrastructure - The airstrikes targeted key facilities, including the South Pars gas field, which accounts for two-thirds of Iran's natural gas supply, resulting in a production loss of 12 million cubic meters of gas per day [4][5] - The Fajr Jam gas plant, one of Iran's largest, also experienced a fire, further complicating the country's energy security [4][5] - Analysts suggest that while the immediate impact may be confined to Iran's domestic energy system, the potential for broader energy conflicts looms large [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The trading market has seen a significant increase in out-of-the-money call options, indicating that many traders are hedging against further oil price increases, particularly with contracts betting on prices exceeding $85 per barrel by June 25 [5][6] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and AB Commodities predict that the current geopolitical situation may lead to upward pressure on oil prices in the short term [4][6] - The ongoing U.S.-Europe divide regarding Russian oil price caps adds another layer of complexity to the energy market, with potential implications for global oil supply and pricing [6][7][8]