Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass valuation in 2025 faces two major pressures: supply surplus and inventory accumulation affecting spot prices, and the financial and profit situation of the real - estate industry limiting the upstream's share. In Q4, glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations, and the valuation boost from the demand side is limited. Cost support for the glass industry will strengthen marginally, and attention should be paid to the valuation repair power from the supply side [3][56][68]. - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern remains in Q4, with high industry inventory and operating pressure. New capacity addition and slow capacity clearance will continue to put pressure on the spot price. The cost of synthetic soda ash production is expected to decline in October. The SA01 contract should pay attention to the previous low support in the medium - term and the spot low - price support in the short - term [5][7][109]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass 2025 Q4 Strategy Report 1.1 Glass 2025 Q3 Review - Supply: In Q3, ignition advanced, cold - repair slowed, and daily melting increased. A total of 2 float glass production lines were cold - repaired, and 4 were ignited. By the end of September, the daily melting of glass was 161,300 tons per day, an increase of 3,500 tons per day compared to the end of Q2. The glass production cost decreased slightly, and the industry profit improved slightly, but natural - gas production lines were still in the red [17][18]. - Demand: In Q3, there was support from rigid demand in deep - processing, and the demand for replenishing inventory from the mid - and downstream was released. As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream were 10.5 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The inventory of mid - and downstream enterprises increased [25]. - Inventory: In Q3, the glass inventory shifted to the mid - and downstream of the industrial chain. By September 26, the total inventory of float glass manufacturers was 59.355 million weight boxes, a decrease of 9.861 million weight boxes compared to the end of June, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56% [46]. 1.2 Glass 2025 Q4 Outlook - Demand: The overall demand trend is downward. In Q4, the rigid demand is expected to be strong first and then weak. The high inventory of the mid - stream may squeeze the upstream production and sales. The demand from the automotive industry is expected to maintain a high year - on - year increase, while the home - appliance industry's order volume is expected to decline year - on - year [56][57]. - Supply: There is still room for ignition and cold - repair of production lines in Q4. Policies such as clean - energy transformation and "anti - involution" may bring downward risks to supply [61]. - Industry Structural Adjustment: Policies to promote the structural optimization and green transformation of the glass industry are expected to be implemented repeatedly in Q4. The discussion on the Shahe clean - energy transformation project will also continue, but the progress of fuel switching in glass factories may be slower than expected [67]. 1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - Valuation: The cost support for the glass industry will strengthen marginally. The valuation boost from the demand side is limited, and attention should be paid to the supply - side factors for valuation repair [68]. - Strategy: In Q4, glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations. There may be a situation where production and sales weaken and the spot price cools down. For the FG01 contract, pay attention to the low - buying opportunity after the premium is reversed and based on the cost [69]. Soda Ash 2025 Q4 Strategy Report 2.1 Soda Ash 2025 Q3 Review - Supply: In Q3, the decline in the operating rate due to maintenance was limited. The supply pressure remained high due to the high - capacity base and new capacity put into production in Q2. By September 26, the soda - ash output in September was about 2.8204 million tons, with a heavy - soda output of 156,260 tons and a light - soda output of 125,780 tons. The average heavy - soda ratio in September was 55.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%. The operating rate of soda - ash plants in September was about 87.24%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.28% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17% [87]. - Cost Valuation: In Q3, the increase in coal prices led to an increase in the cost center of synthetic soda - ash production. The soda - ash industry still faced great loss pressure [87]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda from the glass industry improved in Q3. The daily consumption of heavy soda by float and photovoltaic glass was about 49,800 tons by September 29, with a month - on - month increase of 300 tons per day and a year - on - year decrease of 2,000 tons per day. The demand for light soda from downstream industries was supported. In September, the weekly average apparent demand for light soda was 342,700 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.096 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 221,000 tons [90]. - Import and Export: In August, China's net export of soda ash remained at a historically high level. In August 2025, China exported 215,400 tons of soda ash, with an average export price of 170.64 US dollars per ton, equivalent to 1,222 RMB per ton, and imported 289.9 tons [94]. - Inventory: In Q3, the upstream inventory of soda ash fluctuated at a high level and decreased in September with the mid - and downstream replenishing inventory. By September 26, the inventory of soda - ash plants was 1.6515 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 216,000 tons [99]. 2.2 Soda Ash 2025 Q4 Outlook - Supply: The second - phase project of Yuanxing is expected to be put into production within the year, increasing the supply pressure. After the maintenance season, the planned production - capacity loss will decrease, and the operating rate is expected to rise, further increasing the supply pressure. The industry will continue to clear excess capacity, but the clearing process is slow [102]. - Demand: The demand for light soda is supported, with strong performance in traditional and emerging industries. The supply of float glass in Q4 is expected to be stable, and the daily melting of photovoltaic glass is expected to be stable with minor fluctuations [105][106]. 2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - Supply - Demand Outlook: In Q4, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high with reduced maintenance and new capacity addition. The demand is expected to be stable, with support for light soda and stable daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass [109]. - Valuation: The current spot price can promote capacity clearance, but the process is slow. With new capacity expected to be put into production, the spot price of soda ash is expected to continue to be under pressure. The cost of synthetic soda - ash production is expected to decline in October [7][109]. - Strategy: In the surplus pattern, the spot price of soda ash is expected to continue to find the bottom. The implementation of the second - phase project of Yuanxing may further push down the soda - ash price. For the SA01 contract, pay attention to the previous low support in the medium - term and the spot low - price support in the short - term [7].