交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-26原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2602： 1.基本面：美官员和知情人士称，美国海岸警卫队因专业人手有限，暂时无法对一艘与委内瑞拉有关 的、拒绝接受登船检查的油轮实施扣押行动；俄罗斯外交部发言人表示，俄罗斯认为与美国就乌克兰 问题进行的和平谈判取得了缓慢但稳定的进展；乌克兰扩大了对俄罗斯能源资产的攻击范围，不仅针 对原油炼油厂，还针对管道，以及越来越多的海运石油出口码头和运送俄罗斯供应的影子船队油轮； 中性 2.基差：12月24日，阿曼原油现货价为62.77美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为61.95美元/桶，基差 16.98元/桶，现货升水期货；偏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project, which aims to transport 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Russia to China via Mongolia, highlighting its diplomatic and economic implications for the involved countries [4][12]. Group 1: Project Overview - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline project was officially agreed upon during a meeting between the leaders of China, Russia, and Mongolia, with a legal memorandum signed on September 2 [4]. - The project will have a contract duration of 30 years, with the annual gas supply set at 50 billion cubic meters, although the purchase price remains undisclosed [4][12]. - The pipeline is expected to cost between $10 billion to $14 billion and will span over 2,000 kilometers [14]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The choice of Mongolia as a transit route is strategic, as it enhances Russia's influence in the region while providing Mongolia with a cleaner energy source to combat severe air pollution [9][21]. - The pipeline is designed to utilize the West Siberian oil and gas basin, which holds two-thirds of Russia's natural gas reserves, thus significantly increasing the volume of gas available for export to China [14][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - China's increasing demand for natural gas necessitates a shift towards pipeline imports, especially as other Central Asian countries reduce their exports to China [21][22]. - In 2024, China is projected to import 7.665 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 5.504 million tons of pipeline gas, indicating a strong reliance on pipeline imports for energy security [21]. - Russia's gas exports to Europe have plummeted, with only 8.33 billion cubic meters sold in the first seven months of the year, necessitating a pivot towards China as a key market [22][23].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and trends of the fund industry, highlighting significant changes in investment strategies and asset allocations [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The fund industry has seen a shift towards sustainable and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investments, with a notable increase in assets under management in this sector [1] - Traditional asset classes are experiencing outflows, while alternative investments are gaining traction, indicating a diversification in investment strategies [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - Performance metrics show that funds focusing on technology and healthcare sectors have outperformed the broader market, with returns exceeding 15% year-to-date [1] - The article notes that funds with a strong emphasis on active management have shown resilience during market volatility, achieving better risk-adjusted returns compared to passive funds [1] Group 3: Investor Behavior - There is a growing trend among investors towards seeking personalized investment solutions, leading to an increase in demand for customized fund offerings [1] - The article highlights that younger investors are more inclined to invest in funds that align with their values, particularly in sustainability and social impact [1]

Core Insights - The recent agreement between the United States and Pakistan aims to jointly develop Pakistan's significant oil reserves, marking a potential long-term energy partnership [1][2] - The trade agreement includes a reduction in tariffs on Pakistani imports to the U.S. from 29% to 19%, which is the lowest in South Asia compared to neighboring countries [2][6] - Pakistan's current energy needs are heavily reliant on imports, with 80%-90% of its energy requirements met through foreign sources, primarily from the Middle East [2][5] Oil Reserves and Development Potential - Estimates suggest that Pakistan has approximately 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil resources, although these figures are based on geological models rather than confirmed reserves [4][5] - Currently, domestic oil production meets only about 10% of Pakistan's energy needs, with significant exploration activities ongoing in the Arabian Sea region [4][5] - The potential for Pakistan to become an energy exporter hinges on foreign investment and the development of its oil refining capacity [5][9] Challenges and Market Dynamics - The feasibility of large-scale oil extraction in Pakistan is questioned due to high production costs compared to Gulf oil-producing countries and complex local security conditions [5][9] - The U.S.-Pakistan energy partnership could face hurdles such as technological challenges and inadequate infrastructure, which may hinder the actual extraction of oil [9] - The geopolitical implications of this partnership have raised concerns in India, particularly regarding the potential for Pakistan to sell oil to India in the future [6][7] Historical Context and Future Outlook - Previous attempts by foreign companies to explore oil in Pakistan have often been unsuccessful, leading to skepticism about the viability of new investments [8][9] - Experts suggest that developing a viable export-level oil industry in Pakistan will require substantial foreign investment and a long-term commitment to exploration and infrastructure development [9]

Core Insights - The discovery of a 100 million ton oil field near Shenzhen is a significant breakthrough for the energy sector, potentially alleviating energy pressure and stimulating regional economic development [1][2]. Exploration Journey - The exploration team invested considerable time and effort to locate the oil field, overcoming complex geological conditions using advanced exploration technologies [3][4]. Economic Impact - The development of the oil field is expected to generate substantial economic benefits, creating numerous job opportunities in extraction, transportation, and related services, while also promoting the growth of upstream and downstream industries [5][7]. Environmental Considerations - Environmental protection is crucial during the development process, necessitating the use of advanced eco-friendly technologies to minimize ecological impact and ensure the local ecosystem remains balanced [8][9]. Future Outlook - The accelerated development of the oil field is anticipated to make significant contributions to both local and national energy needs, potentially driving technological innovation and upgrading the oil-related industry [10][11].