11月份全国自然灾害风险形势如何？多部门研判 中新网11月3日电 据应急管理部网站消息，近日，国家防灾减灾救灾委员会办公室、应急管理部会同自 然资源部、水利部、农业农村部、中国气象局、国家能源局、国家林草局等部门召开会商会，对2025年 11月份全国自然灾害风险形势进行会商研判。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 综合分析认为，11月份，内蒙古东北部、东北地区局地低温雨雪冰冻灾害风险较高；华北、华东、华 中、华南局地森林火险等级较高；中南、西南、西北局地地质灾害风险较高；西南地区中西部、西藏东 南部存在洪涝灾害风险，黄河上游干流内蒙古河段可能出现首凌；上旬可能有1个台风影响南海和华南 近海海域。具体如下： 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 一是低温雨雪冰冻灾害风险。11月份，预计有4次冷空气过程影响我国，内蒙古东北部、东北地区降水 较常年同期偏多、气温较常年同期偏低，发生低温雨雪冰冻灾害风险较高。 二是森林草原火灾风险。预计11月份，北京北部和西部、河北北部和西部、山西南部、浙江西部、安徽 南部、福建西部和南部、江西北部、山东中部、河南中南部、湖北东南部、湖南北部、广东北部、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various departments have assessed the natural disaster risk situation for October 2025 and the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, indicating heightened risks of floods, typhoons, forest fires, geological disasters, and droughts across several regions in China [1][2][3]. Flood and Storm Risk - High risks of floods and storm damage are expected in regions such as North China, South China, and Northwest China due to increased rainfall and severe weather conditions, with potential for significant flooding in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins [1][2]. Typhoon Risk - An estimated 3 to 5 typhoons may form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in October, which is above the average of 3.5 typhoons for this period, with 1 to 2 expected to make landfall or significantly impact China [2]. Forest and Grassland Fire Risk - Certain areas, including parts of Beijing, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, are facing high forest fire risks, with specific regions experiencing extremely high fire danger levels [2][3]. Geological Disaster Risk - Regions such as Northwest Shanxi, South Zhejiang, and parts of Guangdong and Sichuan are identified as having a high risk of geological disasters due to rainfall and other factors [2]. Drought Risk - Moderate meteorological drought conditions are present in parts of Hunan and Jiangxi, with expectations of high temperatures and low rainfall potentially exacerbating drought conditions in East and Central China [2].

Core Insights - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk for October 2025, highlighting significant risks from floods, typhoons, forest fires, geological disasters, and droughts during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1][2][3] Flood and Storm Risk - High risks of floods and storm damage are anticipated in regions such as North China, South China, and Northwest China, with potential for short-term heavy rainfall and severe weather events [1] - Specific river basins, including the Yellow River and Yangtze River, may experience flood levels exceeding warning thresholds [1] Typhoon Risk - An expected 3 to 5 typhoons may form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in October, which is above the average of 3.5 typhoons for this period, with 1 to 2 potentially making landfall in China [2] Forest and Grassland Fire Risk - Areas including northern Beijing, northern Hebei, and parts of Inner Mongolia and Northeast China are facing high forest fire risks, with certain regions experiencing extreme fire danger levels [2] Geological Disaster Risk - Regions such as Northwest Shanxi, Southern Zhejiang, and parts of Guangdong and Sichuan are identified as having a high risk of geological disasters due to rainfall and other factors [2] Drought Risk - Moderate meteorological drought conditions are present in parts of Hunan and Jiangxi, with expectations of high temperatures and low rainfall potentially exacerbating drought conditions in East and Central China [2]

Core Insights - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk situation for September 2025, indicating high risks of floods, typhoons, forest fires, geological disasters, and droughts across multiple regions in China [1][2][3] Flood and Storm Risk - High risks of floods and storm damage are expected in regions such as Northeast, East China, South China, and Northwest, with potential for excessive flooding in the Yellow River and Pearl River basins due to heavy rainfall [1] Typhoon Risk - An estimated 4-6 typhoons may form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, with 2-3 expected to impact coastal areas of China, particularly in East and South China, which is above the average for this time of year [2] Forest and Grassland Fire Risk - High fire risk is anticipated in several provinces including Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and parts of Sichuan and Yunnan, with specific areas facing elevated risks for both forest and grassland fires [2] Geological Disaster Risk - Increased risk of geological disasters is forecasted for regions including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and parts of Guangdong and Sichuan, indicating a need for preparedness in these areas [2] Drought Risk - Localized drought conditions are present in provinces such as Jiangxi and Shandong, with expectations of reduced rainfall in several areas, particularly in the Yangtze River middle reaches and Xinjiang, necessitating attention to drought developments [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The National Disaster Reduction and Relief Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management have assessed the natural disaster risk situation in China for August, indicating high risks of floods and severe weather across several regions due to the onset of the main flood season [1]. Flood and Severe Weather Risk - In August, major river basins in China, including North China, Northeast, East China, South China, and Southwest regions, are expected to experience above-average rainfall, leading to risks of short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and hail [1]. - Specific rivers such as the Daqing River, Yongding River, and Beisan River in the Haihe River Basin, as well as the Liao River, Hun River, Taizi River, and the Jilin section of the Songhua River in the Songliao River Basin, are at risk of significant flooding [1]. - The Yellow River's middle reaches, along with the Haihe River Basin's Zhangwei River, Ziya River, and Luan River, as well as the Songhua River and Nen River in the Songliao Basin, may experience flooding above warning levels, with the Tarim River in Xinjiang also at risk [1]. - The Pearl River Basin, particularly the Beijiang and Hanjiang rivers, as well as coastal areas in Southeast and South China, including Yunnan, Sichuan, and Hainan, may face flooding due to typhoon and southwest monsoon influences [1]. Geological Disaster Risk - High risks of geological disasters are anticipated in regions such as northern and western Beijing, western and northern Hebei, eastern Liaoning, southern Zhejiang, southern Jiangxi, northern Guangdong, and eastern Chongqing [3]. - Specific areas in western Yunnan are also identified as having a high risk of geological disasters [3].

Group 1 - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk situation for August 2025, indicating high risks of floods and severe weather in several regions of China [1][2] - The analysis predicts that 2-3 typhoons will make landfall or affect coastal areas, with one expected to impact regions north of the Yangtze River [2] - There is a high risk of forest fires in areas such as Daxing'anling and northern Xinjiang due to frequent lightning strikes, while grassland fire risk remains low nationwide [2][3] Group 2 - Geological disaster risks are elevated in multiple regions, including northern and western Beijing, parts of Hebei, and southern Jiangxi, with specific areas in western Yunnan facing particularly high risks [2][3] - High temperature and drought risks are present in regions like Inner Mongolia and Henan, with predictions of below-average rainfall in several areas, necessitating preparedness for drought conditions [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk situation in China for August 2025, indicating high risks of floods, typhoons, forest fires, geological disasters, and droughts across multiple regions. Flood and Storm Risk - In August, significant rainfall is expected in regions including North China, Northeast China, East China, South China, and Southwest China, leading to a high risk of floods and severe weather events such as thunderstorms and hail. Major rivers like the Daqing River and the Liao River may experience significant flooding [1][2] Typhoon Risk - An estimated 4-5 typhoons may form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, with 2-3 potentially impacting coastal areas of China. This is close to the average for this time of year, with one typhoon expected to affect areas north of the Yangtze River [2] Forest Fire Risk - High lightning activity in regions such as Daxing'anling and Northern Xinjiang increases the risk of forest fires. Certain areas in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Hubei are classified as having a higher risk of forest fires, while the overall grassland fire risk remains low [2] Geological Disaster Risk - High geological disaster risks are anticipated in various regions, including parts of Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, and Yunnan. Specific areas in Western Yunnan are noted for particularly high risks of geological disasters [2][3] High Temperature and Drought Risk - Areas such as Inner Mongolia, Hubei, and Sichuan are experiencing drought conditions. In August, regions like Hubei and Sichuan are expected to have below-average rainfall, with increased days of high temperatures (≥35°C) compared to historical averages, leading to a heightened risk of drought [3]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the natural disaster risk situation in China is expected to become more complex and severe as the country fully enters the main flood season [1] Group 1: Natural Disaster Risks - Northern regions face high risks of flooding and storm damage, with potential heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of the Yellow River, Haihe River, and Songliao River basins [1] - There may be 2 to 3 typhoons making landfall or affecting China, with one strong typhoon expected to move northward impacting northern regions [1] - Geological disaster risks are high in localized areas of Central, Southwest, and Northwest China [1] Group 2: Specific Risks - High forest fire risk levels are noted in northeastern Inner Mongolia and northwestern Heilongjiang [1] - There is a significant risk of heatwaves in parts of East China, Central China, and Northwest China [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [6] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of avian influenza on breeding restrictions, particularly focusing on white feather chickens [2] - The report indicates a short-term supply-demand game in pig farming, emphasizing the need to monitor weight feedback [22] - The report suggests investment opportunities in the aquaculture sector, noting stable prices in the aquatic products market [58] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector increased by 0.56% this week, ranking second among the Shenwan first-level industries [13] - The animal husbandry and veterinary sectors showed an upward trend, with notable stock performances [16] 2. Livestock Farming - **Pig Farming**: The average price of live pigs is 14.66 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.07% and a two-week increase of 0.31%. The average price of piglets is 647 CNY/head, with a week-on-week increase of 2.70% [22] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of white feather meat chickens is 7.48 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.05%. The price of meat chicks is 2.98 CNY/chick, with a week-on-week increase of 2.41% [33] - **Aquaculture**: Prices for various aquatic products remain stable, with carp priced at 18.00 CNY/kg and shrimp at 300.00 CNY/kg [58] 3. Investment Recommendations - For pig farming, recommended companies include Wen's Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Shennong Group. For white feather chicken, focus on companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Biotechnology [4] - The report anticipates a tighter supply-demand balance in the first half of 2025, suggesting significant performance improvement potential in the post-cycle sector [4] 4. Industry Events - The report notes that over 35 million acres of grain have been sown nationwide, with a focus on improving yields through modern agricultural practices [69] - Central government support for pig farming is highlighted, particularly in terms of subsidies for breeding sows and fattening pigs [69]