四是凌汛风险。预计12月上中旬，黄河上游内蒙古河段将出现首封，较常年同期偏晚(12月3日)；受气 温起伏影响，还可能出现凌情。预计12月中旬底前，东北地区嫩江、松花江、黑龙江、乌苏里江等主要 江河将全线封冻。 两部门发布12月份全国自然灾害风险形势 中新网12月2日电 据应急管理部微信公众号消息，近日，国家防灾减灾救灾委员会办公室、应急管理部 会同自然资源部、水利部、农业农村部、中国气象局、国家能源局、国家林草局等部门召开会商会，对 2025年12月份全国自然灾害风险形势进行会商研判。 综合分析认为，12月份，东北地区、内蒙古东部、新疆北部等地部分地区低温冷冻和雪灾风险高；华北 及南方局地森林火险等级较高；西南、西北局地地质灾害风险较高；黄河上游内蒙古河段将于12月上中 旬出现首封。具体如下： 一是低温冷冻和雪灾风险。预计12月份，有阶段性冷空气过程影响我国，强度中等到偏强，东北地区中 北部、内蒙古东部、新疆北部等地降水偏多、气温偏低，发生低温冷冻和雪灾风险较高。 二是森林草原火灾风险。综合天气趋势、火灾规律和火源特征等因素，预计12月份，北京西部和北部、 河北西部和北部、山西东部和北部、辽宁西部、浙江西部、 ...

央视网消息：据应急管理部消息，近日，国家防灾减灾救灾委员会办公室、应急管理部会同自然资 源部、水利部、农业农村部、中国气象局、国家能源局、国家林草局等部门召开会商会，对2025年12月 份全国自然灾害风险形势进行会商研判。 综合分析认为，12月份，东北地区、内蒙古东部、新疆北部等地部分地区低温冷冻和雪灾风险高； 华北及南方局地森林火险等级较高；西南、西北局地地质灾害风险较高；黄河上游内蒙古河段将于12月 上中旬出现首封。具体如下： 一是低温冷冻和雪灾风险。预计12月份，有阶段性冷空气过程影响我国，强度中等到偏强，东北地 区中北部、内蒙古东部、新疆北部等地降水偏多、气温偏低，发生低温冷冻和雪灾风险较高。 三是地质灾害风险。预计12月份，重庆东部、云南西北部、西藏东部、甘肃东部、青海东部等部分 地区发生地质灾害的风险较高。 四是凌汛风险。预计12月上中旬，黄河上游内蒙古河段将出现首封，较常年同期偏晚（12月3 日）；受气温起伏影响，还可能出现凌情。预计12月中旬底前，东北地区嫩江、松花江、黑龙江、乌苏 里江等主要江河将全线封冻。 五是海洋灾害风险。预计12月份，我国近海海域将发生4—5次灾害性海浪过程。渤海及黄海 ...

人民财讯12月2日电，近日，国家防灾减灾救灾委员会办公室、应急管理部会同自然资源部、水利部、 农业农村部、中国气象局、国家能源局、国家林草局等部门召开会商会，对2025年12月份全国自然灾害 风险形势进行会商研判。综合分析认为，12月份，东北地区、内蒙古东部、新疆北部等地部分地区低温 冷冻和雪灾风险高；华北及南方局地森林火险等级较高；西南、西北局地地质灾害风险较高；黄河上游 内蒙古河段将于12月上中旬出现首封。 ...

Core Insights - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk situation for November 2025, highlighting multiple risks across different regions of China [1][2]. Summary by Category Low Temperature, Rain, Snow, and Freezing Disaster Risk - In November, four cold air processes are expected to impact China, leading to higher precipitation and lower temperatures in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the northeast region, increasing the risk of low temperature, rain, snow, and freezing disasters [1]. Forest and Grassland Fire Risk - Certain areas, including northern and western Beijing, northern and western Hebei, southern Shanxi, and parts of Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi, are expected to have a higher risk of forest fires in November, while the overall grassland fire risk remains low [1][2]. Geological Disaster Risk - Regions such as central Hunan, northeastern Guangxi, eastern Chongqing, northern and southern Sichuan, northwestern and northeastern Yunnan, southwestern Shaanxi, central and southern Gansu, and eastern Qinghai are projected to have a higher risk of geological disasters in November [2]. Flood Disaster Risk - Increased rainfall is anticipated in the central and southwestern regions, as well as southeastern Tibet, raising concerns about potential flooding due to continuous rain and localized heavy precipitation. Major rivers in the northeast are expected to experience initial freezing, with the upper reaches of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia also likely to see initial ice formation by the end of the month [2]. Marine Disaster Risk - One to two typhoons are expected to form in the South China Sea or the northwestern Pacific in early November, with one potentially impacting the South China Sea and nearby coastal areas. Additionally, a significant storm surge and several hazardous wave events are anticipated along the coast during November [2].

Core Viewpoint - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various departments have assessed the natural disaster risk situation for October 2025 and the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, indicating heightened risks of floods, typhoons, forest fires, geological disasters, and droughts across several regions in China [1][2][3]. Flood and Storm Risk - High risks of floods and storm damage are expected in regions such as North China, South China, and Northwest China due to increased rainfall and severe weather conditions, with potential for significant flooding in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins [1][2]. Typhoon Risk - An estimated 3 to 5 typhoons may form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in October, which is above the average of 3.5 typhoons for this period, with 1 to 2 expected to make landfall or significantly impact China [2]. Forest and Grassland Fire Risk - Certain areas, including parts of Beijing, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, are facing high forest fire risks, with specific regions experiencing extremely high fire danger levels [2][3]. Geological Disaster Risk - Regions such as Northwest Shanxi, South Zhejiang, and parts of Guangdong and Sichuan are identified as having a high risk of geological disasters due to rainfall and other factors [2]. Drought Risk - Moderate meteorological drought conditions are present in parts of Hunan and Jiangxi, with expectations of high temperatures and low rainfall potentially exacerbating drought conditions in East and Central China [2].

Core Insights - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk for October 2025, highlighting significant risks from floods, typhoons, forest fires, geological disasters, and droughts during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1][2][3] Flood and Storm Risk - High risks of floods and storm damage are anticipated in regions such as North China, South China, and Northwest China, with potential for short-term heavy rainfall and severe weather events [1] - Specific river basins, including the Yellow River and Yangtze River, may experience flood levels exceeding warning thresholds [1] Typhoon Risk - An expected 3 to 5 typhoons may form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in October, which is above the average of 3.5 typhoons for this period, with 1 to 2 potentially making landfall in China [2] Forest and Grassland Fire Risk - Areas including northern Beijing, northern Hebei, and parts of Inner Mongolia and Northeast China are facing high forest fire risks, with certain regions experiencing extreme fire danger levels [2] Geological Disaster Risk - Regions such as Northwest Shanxi, Southern Zhejiang, and parts of Guangdong and Sichuan are identified as having a high risk of geological disasters due to rainfall and other factors [2] Drought Risk - Moderate meteorological drought conditions are present in parts of Hunan and Jiangxi, with expectations of high temperatures and low rainfall potentially exacerbating drought conditions in East and Central China [2]

Core Insights - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk situation for September 2025, indicating high risks of floods, typhoons, forest fires, geological disasters, and droughts across multiple regions in China [1][2][3] Flood and Storm Risk - High risks of floods and storm damage are expected in regions such as Northeast, East China, South China, and Northwest, with potential for excessive flooding in the Yellow River and Pearl River basins due to heavy rainfall [1] Typhoon Risk - An estimated 4-6 typhoons may form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, with 2-3 expected to impact coastal areas of China, particularly in East and South China, which is above the average for this time of year [2] Forest and Grassland Fire Risk - High fire risk is anticipated in several provinces including Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and parts of Sichuan and Yunnan, with specific areas facing elevated risks for both forest and grassland fires [2] Geological Disaster Risk - Increased risk of geological disasters is forecasted for regions including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and parts of Guangdong and Sichuan, indicating a need for preparedness in these areas [2] Drought Risk - Localized drought conditions are present in provinces such as Jiangxi and Shandong, with expectations of reduced rainfall in several areas, particularly in the Yangtze River middle reaches and Xinjiang, necessitating attention to drought developments [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The National Disaster Reduction and Relief Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management have assessed the natural disaster risk situation in China for August, indicating high risks of floods and severe weather across several regions due to the onset of the main flood season [1]. Flood and Severe Weather Risk - In August, major river basins in China, including North China, Northeast, East China, South China, and Southwest regions, are expected to experience above-average rainfall, leading to risks of short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and hail [1]. - Specific rivers such as the Daqing River, Yongding River, and Beisan River in the Haihe River Basin, as well as the Liao River, Hun River, Taizi River, and the Jilin section of the Songhua River in the Songliao River Basin, are at risk of significant flooding [1]. - The Yellow River's middle reaches, along with the Haihe River Basin's Zhangwei River, Ziya River, and Luan River, as well as the Songhua River and Nen River in the Songliao Basin, may experience flooding above warning levels, with the Tarim River in Xinjiang also at risk [1]. - The Pearl River Basin, particularly the Beijiang and Hanjiang rivers, as well as coastal areas in Southeast and South China, including Yunnan, Sichuan, and Hainan, may face flooding due to typhoon and southwest monsoon influences [1]. Geological Disaster Risk - High risks of geological disasters are anticipated in regions such as northern and western Beijing, western and northern Hebei, eastern Liaoning, southern Zhejiang, southern Jiangxi, northern Guangdong, and eastern Chongqing [3]. - Specific areas in western Yunnan are also identified as having a high risk of geological disasters [3].

Group 1 - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk situation for August 2025, indicating high risks of floods and severe weather in several regions of China [1][2] - The analysis predicts that 2-3 typhoons will make landfall or affect coastal areas, with one expected to impact regions north of the Yangtze River [2] - There is a high risk of forest fires in areas such as Daxing'anling and northern Xinjiang due to frequent lightning strikes, while grassland fire risk remains low nationwide [2][3] Group 2 - Geological disaster risks are elevated in multiple regions, including northern and western Beijing, parts of Hebei, and southern Jiangxi, with specific areas in western Yunnan facing particularly high risks [2][3] - High temperature and drought risks are present in regions like Inner Mongolia and Henan, with predictions of below-average rainfall in several areas, necessitating preparedness for drought conditions [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk situation in China for August 2025, indicating high risks of floods, typhoons, forest fires, geological disasters, and droughts across multiple regions. Flood and Storm Risk - In August, significant rainfall is expected in regions including North China, Northeast China, East China, South China, and Southwest China, leading to a high risk of floods and severe weather events such as thunderstorms and hail. Major rivers like the Daqing River and the Liao River may experience significant flooding [1][2] Typhoon Risk - An estimated 4-5 typhoons may form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, with 2-3 potentially impacting coastal areas of China. This is close to the average for this time of year, with one typhoon expected to affect areas north of the Yangtze River [2] Forest Fire Risk - High lightning activity in regions such as Daxing'anling and Northern Xinjiang increases the risk of forest fires. Certain areas in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Hubei are classified as having a higher risk of forest fires, while the overall grassland fire risk remains low [2] Geological Disaster Risk - High geological disaster risks are anticipated in various regions, including parts of Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, and Yunnan. Specific areas in Western Yunnan are noted for particularly high risks of geological disasters [2][3] High Temperature and Drought Risk - Areas such as Inner Mongolia, Hubei, and Sichuan are experiencing drought conditions. In August, regions like Hubei and Sichuan are expected to have below-average rainfall, with increased days of high temperatures (≥35°C) compared to historical averages, leading to a heightened risk of drought [3]