2026 年 03 月 03 日 农林牧渔 节后消费疲软叠加供应充足，短期内猪 价或震荡偏弱 生猪养殖：节前消费供给双增，短期内猪价或窄幅震荡 价格端：本周生猪均价 10.93 元/kg，周环比-7.06%，两周环比- 5.73%；仔猪价格 463 元/头，周环比-1.70%，两周环比-0.85%。根 据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 17.72 元/kg，周环比-2.11%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 13.76 万头，周环比变动-45.81%。 周观点：节后消费疲软叠加供应充足，短期内猪价或震荡偏弱。涌益 咨询数据显示，春节假期过后，市场供应量级恢复，年后屠企宰量增 量缓慢，拖累本周行情呈快速回落表现。当前猪价跌破新低后，情绪 端的支撑以及二育进场的托市，市场短时下跌确有受阻。从整体需求 面来看，年后消费回升速度缓慢，家庭多维持消化"冰箱库存"为主， 且目前生猪出栏均重较去年同期偏高，从消费端的匹配能力来看，年 后大猪需求疲软，预示当下市场供应压力依旧较强，预计短期行情持 续性上行动力略显不足，或震荡偏弱。 家禽养殖：屠宰产能节后回复，白羽肉鸡市场震荡 周观点：据我的钢铁网显示,本周种蛋价格呈现 ...

低温雨雪冰冻和雪灾风险方面，预计2月份，有4次冷空气过程影响我国，东北、内蒙古中东部、华北北 部等地气温较常年同期偏低，降水偏多，可能出现阶段性强降温、大风和强降雪，低温雨雪冰冻和雪灾 风险较高。黑龙江、嫩江、松花江等河流仍处于封河期，黄河干流封冻河段将于2月下旬陆续进入开河 期。 国家防减救灾委办公室、应急管理部发布的2026年2月份全国自然灾害风险形势显示，预计2月份，东 北、内蒙古中东部、华北北部等地气温较常年同期偏低，降水偏多，低温雨雪冰冻和雪灾风险较高。 智通财经从应急管理部获悉，近日，国家防灾减灾救灾委员会办公室、应急管理部会同自然资源部、水 利部、农业农村部、中国气象局、国家能源局、国家林草局等部门召开会商会，对2026年2月份全国自 然灾害风险形势进行会商研判。综合分析认为，2月份，东北、内蒙古中东部、华北北部等部分地区低 温雨雪冰冻和雪灾风险较高；华东、华南、西南等部分地区可能出现高森林火险等级时段；华北、华 东、中南、西南、西北等局地地质灾害风险较高；华东、华南等地部分地区存在干旱灾害风险。 森林草原火灾风险方面，综合天气趋势、火灾规律和火源特征等因素，预计2月份，北京西部、河北西 部、山 ...

二是森林草原火灾风险。综合天气趋势、火灾规律和火源特征等因素，预计2月份，北京西部、河北西 部、山西东部、浙江大部、安徽南部、福建大部、江西大部、湖北东南部、湖南南部、广东大部、广西 大部、海南西部、四川西部、贵州西部、云南大部、西藏东部和南部的部分地区森林火险等级为较高危 险，其中，福建南部、江西南部、广东大部、广西东部、四川西部、云南西部、西藏东部的局部地区部 分时段森林火险等级为高度危险。四川西部、西藏东部、青海南部的部分地区草原火险等级较高。 三是地质灾害风险。预计2月份，北京东北部、河北北部和西部、山西西部和北部、安徽西部、江西西 部、湖北西部和东部、湖南北部、广西北部、重庆北部和西南部、四川北部和南部、贵州西北部、云南 西北部和东北部、西藏东部、陕西南部和东部、甘肃中东部、青海东部等部分地区发生地质灾害的风险 较高。 四是干旱灾害风险。1月中旬以来，华东南部、华南东部等地气象干旱呈发展态势，江西、福建部分水 库蓄水量较常年同期偏少。预计2月份，华东南部、华中南部、华南东部、西南地区西部等地气温偏 高，降水持续偏少，旱情可能进一步发展。 经济观察网 据央视新闻客户端消息，近日，国家防灾减灾救灾委员会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Disaster Reduction and Relief Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management have assessed the natural disaster risk situation for February 2026, highlighting various risks across different regions of China, including low-temperature snow and ice, forest fire hazards, geological disaster risks, and drought conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Low-Temperature Snow and Ice Risks - In February, four cold air processes are expected to impact China, leading to lower temperatures and increased precipitation in Northeast, central and eastern Inner Mongolia, and northern North China, resulting in heightened risks of low-temperature rain, snow, ice, and snow disasters [1]. - Rivers such as the Heilongjiang, Nenjiang, and Songhua are still in the freezing period, while the Yellow River's frozen sections are expected to start thawing in late February [1]. Group 2: Forest Fire Risks - The risk of forest fires is expected to be high in several regions, including western Beijing, western Hebei, eastern Shanxi, and most parts of Fujian, Jiangxi, and Guangdong, with some areas experiencing extremely high fire risk levels [2]. - Specific regions such as southern Fujian, southern Jiangxi, and western Sichuan are noted for particularly high fire risk during certain periods [2]. Group 3: Geological Disaster Risks - Geological disaster risks are elevated in areas including northeastern Beijing, northern and western Hebei, and various parts of Sichuan and Yunnan, indicating a significant potential for geological hazards in these regions [2]. Group 4: Drought Risks - Since mid-January, meteorological drought conditions have been developing in southeastern East China and eastern South China, with some reservoirs in Jiangxi and Fujian showing lower water levels compared to historical averages [2]. - In February, higher temperatures and continued low precipitation in southeastern East China and southwestern regions may exacerbate drought conditions [2].

二是森林草原火灾风险。综合天气趋势、火灾规律和火源特征等因素，预计2月份，北京西部、河北西 部、山西东部、浙江大部、安徽南部、福建大部、江西大部、湖北东南部、湖南南部、广东大部、广西 大部、海南西部、四川西部、贵州西部、云南大部、西藏东部和南部的部分地区森林火险等级为较高危 险，其中，福建南部、江西南部、广东大部、广西东部、四川西部、云南西部、西藏东部的局部地区部 分时段森林火险等级为高度危险。四川西部、西藏东部、青海南部的部分地区草原火险等级较高。 三是地质灾害风险。预计2月份，北京东北部、河北北部和西部、山西西部和北部、安徽西部、江西西 部、湖北西部和东部、湖南北部、广西北部、重庆北部和西南部、四川北部和南部、贵州西北部、云南 西北部和东北部、西藏东部、陕西南部和东部、甘肃中东部、青海东部等部分地区发生地质灾害的风险 较高。 四是干旱灾害风险。1月中旬以来，华东南部、华南东部等地气象干旱呈发展态势，江西、福建部分水 库蓄水量较常年同期偏少。预计2月份，华东南部、华中南部、华南东部、西南地区西部等地气温偏 高，降水持续偏少，旱情可能进一步发展。 央视网消息：据应急管理部公众号消息，近日，国家防灾减灾救灾委员 ...

风险形势分析： 气象风险形势分析 2月份，预计本市平均降水量为5～7毫米左右，比常年同期略偏多，平均气温接近常年同期。大风天气 对高层建筑设施、临时搭建物、户外广告牌等设施安全稳定性，以及高空、户外作业及游乐活动等产生 影响，可能导致高空坠物、人员高处坠落等，威胁市民生命安全。低温寒潮、降雪等可能造成人员反应 迟钝、户外作业操作失误、高空滑落、管线破裂、道路结冰以及航空、铁路交通延误等，影响建筑施 工、交通安全和城市运行。大雾天气可能影响城市交通运行保障，加重空气污染，影响老人、儿童和体 弱者的健康。 近期，北京市应急局会同市相关单位对2026年2月份北京地区自然灾害风险形势进行分析，形成结论如 下： 综合判断，2月份本市处于自然灾害低发期，需关注低温寒潮、森林火灾，以及大风、大雾等天气影 响。 灾害 入冬以来，林下可燃物平均湿度长期处于10%左右，偏高于去年同期7.9%。但今年冬季气温、林区土壤 温度较往年偏高，可燃物水份蒸发量较往年同期明显加大，加之春节假期，人员烧香祭祀、燃灯庆祝等 户外活动频繁，林区可燃物引燃风险、蔓延风险有所上升。 风险 防范提示 2月份，大风、寒潮、降雪天气反复，对公众工作、生活影 ...

Core Insights - The National Disaster Risk Assessment Committee and various departments have analyzed the natural disaster risk situation for December 2025, highlighting significant risks across different regions of China [1][2]. Group 1: Low Temperature and Snow Disaster Risks - In December, regions such as northeastern China, eastern Inner Mongolia, and northern Xinjiang are expected to face high risks of low temperature and snow disasters due to a moderate to strong cold air mass [1]. Group 2: Forest Fire Risks - Areas including western and northern Beijing, western and northern Hebei, eastern and northern Shanxi, and several other provinces are predicted to have a high level of forest fire risk in December, while the overall grassland fire risk remains low [2]. Group 3: Geological Disaster Risks - The risk of geological disasters is expected to be high in parts of eastern Chongqing, northwestern Yunnan, eastern Tibet, eastern Gansu, and eastern Qinghai during December [2]. Group 4: Ice Flood Risks - The upper reaches of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia are anticipated to experience the first ice formation in early to mid-December, which is later than the average date of December 3 [2]. Group 5: Marine Disaster Risks - It is forecasted that 4 to 5 instances of hazardous sea wave events will occur in China's coastal waters in December, with ice conditions in the Bohai Sea and northern Yellow Sea being slightly lighter than usual [2].

Group 1 - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk situation for December 2025, indicating high risks in specific regions [1] - Low temperature and snow disaster risks are expected in northeastern China, eastern Inner Mongolia, and northern Xinjiang due to a moderate to strong cold air process [1] - Forest fire risks are elevated in parts of Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, Liaoning, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan [1] Group 2 - Geological disaster risks are high in eastern Chongqing, northwestern Yunnan, eastern Tibet, eastern Gansu, and eastern Qinghai [1] - Ice jam risks are anticipated in the upper reaches of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia, with freezing expected later than usual [2] - The coastal areas of China are projected to experience 4-5 instances of hazardous sea wave events in December, with initial ice formation expected in the Liaodong Bay and northern Yellow Sea [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Disaster Reduction and Relief Committee, along with various government departments, has assessed the natural disaster risk situation for December 2025, highlighting specific regional risks across China [1] Group 1: Regional Risk Assessment - High risks of low temperatures, freezing, and snow disasters are identified in parts of Northeast China, eastern Inner Mongolia, and northern Xinjiang [1] - Forest fire risk levels are notably high in certain areas of North China and the southern regions [1] - Geological disaster risks are elevated in specific areas of Southwest and Northwest China [1] Group 2: Seasonal Weather Patterns - The upper reaches of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia are expected to experience the first freeze in early to mid-December [1]

Core Insights - The National Disaster Reduction Committee and various ministries have assessed the natural disaster risk situation for November 2025, highlighting multiple risks across different regions of China [1][2]. Summary by Category Low Temperature, Rain, Snow, and Freezing Disaster Risk - In November, four cold air processes are expected to impact China, leading to higher precipitation and lower temperatures in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the northeast region, increasing the risk of low temperature, rain, snow, and freezing disasters [1]. Forest and Grassland Fire Risk - Certain areas, including northern and western Beijing, northern and western Hebei, southern Shanxi, and parts of Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi, are expected to have a higher risk of forest fires in November, while the overall grassland fire risk remains low [1][2]. Geological Disaster Risk - Regions such as central Hunan, northeastern Guangxi, eastern Chongqing, northern and southern Sichuan, northwestern and northeastern Yunnan, southwestern Shaanxi, central and southern Gansu, and eastern Qinghai are projected to have a higher risk of geological disasters in November [2]. Flood Disaster Risk - Increased rainfall is anticipated in the central and southwestern regions, as well as southeastern Tibet, raising concerns about potential flooding due to continuous rain and localized heavy precipitation. Major rivers in the northeast are expected to experience initial freezing, with the upper reaches of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia also likely to see initial ice formation by the end of the month [2]. Marine Disaster Risk - One to two typhoons are expected to form in the South China Sea or the northwestern Pacific in early November, with one potentially impacting the South China Sea and nearby coastal areas. Additionally, a significant storm surge and several hazardous wave events are anticipated along the coast during November [2].