Group 1: US Economy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that oil price shocks will not have a lasting impact on inflation, consistent with the quantitative analysis conducted by the US economic team in September 2023 [1] - The research indicates that a 10% increase in oil prices typically results in a modest 5 basis point increase in core prices within three months [1] - The model shows that headline prices react more significantly, increasing by 5 basis points in the same period, primarily due to the energy component of the CPI [1] Group 2: China Liquidity and MSCI China - In May, China's liquidity showed some improvement but remained negative due to strong growth in M1 (narrow money supply), intensified PPI deflation, and stable industrial value-added growth [4] - Morgan Stanley expects deflationary pressures to persist throughout 2025, with a passive policy stance leading to continued negative liquidity [4] Group 3: Chinese Beauty Market during 618 Sales - The total GMV of beauty products across four major e-commerce platforms grew by over 10% year-on-year, attributed to a 10-day extension of the promotional period and simplified sales strategies [6] - Douyin's beauty category growth outpaced Tmall's by approximately 10%, although the growth advantage for Douyin appears to be narrowing [6] - Tmall's competitive landscape remained stable, with the top six brands consistent with the previous year, while domestic brands showed more volatility in rankings [6] Group 4: E-commerce Platforms and Competition - Morgan Stanley expresses confidence in Meituan's competitive barriers in the instant retail sector, with Alibaba's e-commerce and local life services synergy expected to drive business expansion [15] - Meituan's restructuring of its 优选 (preferred) business is seen as a positive move, allowing for more investment in instant retail and international expansion [19] - Meituan is projected to achieve a GTV of 350 billion RMB in instant retail by 2025, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [19] Group 5: Alibaba's Strategic Moves - Alibaba announced the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce group, maintaining their operational structures while enhancing business efficiency through strong synergies [21] - This move is seen as a response to JD's recent expansions into instant retail and online travel, highlighting the competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector [21]