鸡蛋期货周报 供应压力稍缓解，但需求一般 作者：刘珂 投资咨询资格证：Z0016336 联系方式：020-88818026 广发期货APP 微信公众号 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 2025/11/22 品种观点 | 品种 | 主要观点 供应方面：当前蛋鸡养殖亏损持续扩大，叠加老母鸡价格下行，加剧市场对 | 本周策略 | 上周策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 后市的悲观预期，养殖端出栏意愿明显增强； 从前期鸡苗销量推断，新开产 蛋鸡数量维持低位，致使中小码蛋供应呈现偏紧格局； 综合来看，在产蛋鸡 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 存栏量预计延续缓降态势， 但部分养殖户惜售心理，导致当前库存水平仍处 | | | | | 于相对高位。 | 低位震荡，关注前低附近 | 市场短期大跌空间有限， | | | 需求方面：当前商超及电商平台普遍采取低价补货策略，采购积极性有限， | | | | | 同时，随着气温持续下降，餐饮行业进入冬季传统淡季，需求支撑减弱， 食 | 支撑力度 | 2512，2601合约空单 | | | 品加工企业则因自身产品销售情况，采购 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

11月21日，正邦科技盘中下跌2.04%，截至14:27，报2.88元/股，成交3.01亿元，换手率1.43%，总市值 266.40亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出2719.08万元，特大单买入2285.34万元，占比7.59%，卖出6775.56万 元，占比22.52%；大单买入7290.73万元，占比24.23%，卖出5519.59万元，占比18.34%。 正邦科技今年以来股价跌1.37%，近5个交易日跌6.80%，近20日跌3.03%，近60日跌0.69%。 截至10月20日，正邦科技股东户数16.52万，较上期减少0.57%；人均流通股43307股，较上期增加 0.57%。2025年1月-9月，正邦科技实现营业收入106.58亿元，同比增长82.58%；归母净利润826.56万 元，同比减少97.25%。 分红方面，正邦科技A股上市后累计派现28.64亿元。近三年，累计派现0.00元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，江西正邦科技股份有限公司位于江西省南昌市南昌高新技术产业开发区昌东大道7003号办公 大楼6楼，成立日期1996年9月26日，上市日期2007年8月17日，公司主营业务涉及饲料生产与销 ...

Core Insights - The "Ten Thousand Enterprises Revitalize Ten Thousand Villages" initiative in Guangxi is significantly enhancing rural income and development through partnerships between private enterprises and local communities [3][4][5] Group 1: Economic Impact - Farmers in Guangxi are experiencing increased income, with some reporting annual profits exceeding 60,000 yuan from poultry farming, which is more lucrative than working outside [1][2] - The initiative has led to an investment of 645.69 billion yuan, benefiting nearly 4 million rural residents [3][4] - In poverty-stricken areas, the average annual income of farmers has surpassed 18,000 yuan, with 15,000 villages reporting collective economic income exceeding 50,000 yuan annually for five consecutive years [4] Group 2: Business Models - The "Five Gold Model" implemented by companies like Jinfu Agriculture allows villagers to earn income through multiple streams: rent, wages, bonuses, and shares, enhancing financial security [3][4] - The initiative has fostered the development of six key agricultural industries, creating nine national advantageous characteristic industrial clusters and three modern agricultural demonstration zones [5][6] Group 3: Collaborative Framework - The initiative emphasizes a collaborative approach involving government, enterprises, and local communities, creating a robust support system for rural development [5][6] - Future plans include focusing on quality improvement and establishing 500 deep integration development models between villages and enterprises by 2027 [6]

11月21日，新希望盘中下跌2.07%，截至10:44，报9.45元/股，成交2.12亿元，换手率0.49%，总市值 425.49亿元。 今年以来新希望已经2次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为4月7日。 资料显示，新希望六和股份有限公司位于四川省成都市锦江工业园区金石路376号，成立日期1998年3月 4日，上市日期1998年3月11日，公司主营业务涉及饲料、白羽肉禽、猪养殖、食品。主营业务收入构成 为：饲料68.72%，猪产业27.83%，其他3.44%。 新希望所属申万行业为：农林牧渔-养殖业-生猪养殖。所属概念板块包括：养鸡、猪肉概念、乡村振 兴、预制菜、饲料等。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，新希望十大流通股东中，中国证券金融股份有限公司位居第四大 流通股东，持股1.26亿股，持股数量较上期不变。香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流通股东，持股 8795.99万股，相比上期增加896.25万股。国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF（159865）位居第九大流通股东，持股 5032.09万股，相比上期增加1810.60万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第十大流通股东，持股 3845.49万股，相 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 张璐 水产饲料龙头企业海大集团（002311.SZ）开启大额回购计划，提振信心。 11月18日，海大集团公告称，公司拟以不低于10亿元且不超过16亿元的资金回购公司股份，用于依法注 销并减少注册资本，以及实施股权激励计划及/或员工持股计划。 长江商报记者注意到，此次回购的价格上限确定为62.00元/股，较公司11月19日收盘价58.54元/股溢价 约5.91%，充分体现了公司对自身股票价值的认可。 "10亿元用于注销减资，直接减少总股本，有助于提升每股收益和净资产收益率，强化对股东的回 报。"市场分析人士指出，与此同时，股权激励部分则可将核心团队利益与公司长期发展绑定，优化治 理结构。 作为水产与畜禽饲料领域龙头企业，海大集团近年来发展迅速。截至11月19日，公司2025年以来股价累 计上涨22.6%，总市值达到974亿元。从长期回报看，自2009年上市以来，公司已累计实施17次现金分 红，累计现金分红约76亿元，近三年累计分红约37.06亿元，此次回购与分红形成叠加效应。 境外收入占比升至13.97% 作为一家市值接近千亿的农业龙头企业，海大集团2025年前三季度实现营收960 ...

每经AI快讯，海大集团（SZ 002311，收盘价：58.54元）11月19日晚间发布公告称，2025年11月19日， 公司首次通过回购专用证券账户以集中竞价方式回购公司股份约14万股，约占公司总股本的0.01%，最 高成交价58.5元/股，最低成交价为57.76元/股，成交总金额约为799万元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——爱泼斯坦案文件解密倒计时，美国会"秒过"法案直通特朗普，引爆两党"极 限撕扯" （记者 曾健辉） 截至发稿，海大集团市值为974亿元。 2025年1至6月份，海大集团的营业收入构成为：饲料行业占比83.45%，苗种行业占比16.55%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's feed industry, with a projected production increase and significant year-on-year growth rates [1][2] - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's feed production in September 2025 is expected to reach 31.29 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, the cumulative feed production in China is reported to be 250.696 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 6.4% [1] Group 2 - Listed companies in the feed industry include New Hope (000876), Haida Group (002311), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438), Dabeinong Technology Group (002385), and Yuehai Feed [1] - The report referenced is the "2025-2031 China Feed Industry Market Research and Development Prospects Report" published by Zhiyan Consulting [1][2]

每经AI快讯，唐人神（SZ 002567，收盘价：4.82元）11月18日晚间发布公告称，公司第十届第六次董 事会会议于2025年11月18日在湖南省株洲市国家高新技术产业开发区栗雨工业园公司总部会议室以通讯 方式召开。会议审议了《关于拟申请注册发行中期票据的议案》等文件。 截至发稿，唐人神市值为69亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——段睿：我与蔡磊是 "找钥匙的人"，纵使生前寻不到，也要为其他渐冻症患 者铺就近路 （记者 曾健辉） 2025年1至6月份，唐人神的营业收入构成为：饲料产业占比60.25%，猪种苗产业占比34.1%，肉类产业 占比5.58%，动保业占比0.06%。 ...