Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in travel demand during the Qingming Festival in 2025, driven by a strong recovery in domestic and international travel, alongside favorable oil price trends that are expected to positively impact airline profitability [8]. Group 1: Oil Price and Airline Costs - OPEC+ announced an unexpected increase in oil production, leading to a substantial drop in Brent crude oil prices, which fell by 12.5% from April 2 to April 4, with a year-on-year decline expanding from 14.3% to 26.6% [1][6]. - The price of aviation kerosene is expected to further decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.5 percentage points to 15.2%, which will positively affect airline operating costs [1][6]. - A 10% fluctuation in oil prices could reduce the fuel costs for major airlines by approximately 45.5 to 55.0 billion [1][6]. Group 2: Travel Demand and Passenger Volume - The Qingming Festival in 2025 saw a 9.7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional travel, with significant growth in railway (8.4%), civil aviation (8.6%), and highway passenger volumes (9.7%) [2][8]. - The National Railway Group predicts a 12.7% increase in passenger volume during the holiday period, with a majority of travelers opting for short-distance trips within 500 km [3][4]. - The average daily passenger volume for civil aviation is expected to grow by 10.3% during the Qingming Festival, with domestic flight capacity reaching historical highs [5][8]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article anticipates a transition in airline ticket pricing from "industry self-discipline" to "supply-demand optimization," with a projected average ticket price decrease of 7.9% compared to the previous year [6][8]. - The recovery rate for international flights is expected to reach around 90% of 2019 levels, with popular destinations including Japan, South Korea, and Thailand [5][8]. - The combination of strong travel demand and reduced fuel costs is expected to lead to improved profitability for airlines during the off-peak season [6][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the accelerated recovery of business travel demand after the Lantern Festival, which is a significant support for the recent normalization of domestic ticket prices [1][2] - The analysis of historical data shows that business travel demand typically declines around the Lunar New Year and then rises again after the holiday, with 2025 showing a faster recovery compared to 2024 [2][3] - The average passenger volume on the Beijing-Shanghai route after the Lantern Festival in 2025 reached 92.4% of the volume from ten days before the Spring Festival, indicating a stronger recovery trend [2][3] Group 2 - The expectation for the recovery of China-US routes in 2025 is crucial, as the restoration of long-haul flights will benefit airlines by optimizing unit fuel costs [3][4] - The international flight recovery rate reached 90.3% in the first eight weeks of 2025, with significant increases in flight volumes to Southeast Asia and East Asia [3] - The geopolitical situation, including potential ceasefires, may lead to the restoration of previously restricted international flights, further enhancing operational efficiency for airlines [3][4] Group 3 - Sanctions against Iran may lead to a reduction in oil prices, alleviating fuel cost pressures for airlines, which is expected to catalyze profit growth in 2025 [4][6] - The average price of aviation kerosene in early 2025 decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, which directly impacts airline profitability [4][6] - The decline in fuel surcharges due to lower oil prices will also benefit airlines by increasing their revenue from ticket sales [4] Group 4 - The overall passenger volume in civil aviation increased by 7.4% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, with a notable recovery in business travel demand [6] - The article suggests that if the geopolitical situation stabilizes, it could lead to further recovery in international routes, particularly benefiting major airlines [6] - Current airline valuations are considered attractive, and it is recommended to strategically invest during the off-peak season [6]