Core Insights - Cathay Pacific Group and Airbus have announced a joint investment agreement to support sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects, committing up to $70 million (approximately HKD 545 million) for development in Asia and globally [1][7]. Industry Trends - Major airlines are increasingly investing in the upstream SAF industry to address the financial challenges of achieving net-zero emissions, with initiatives like "green ticket pricing" being introduced [2][4]. - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that SAF will contribute over 65% of the aviation industry's emissions reductions by 2050, with a demand forecast of 35.8 million tons [4]. Financial Challenges - The aviation industry faces a significant gap between current profit margins and the costs associated with transitioning to net-zero emissions, with estimated annual costs of $174 billion compared to projected net profits of $36 billion [4][6]. - The supply of SAF is expected to fall short of demand, with a projected supply gap of 45% by 2030 due to economic uncertainties and capital-intensive production processes [4][8]. Consumer Engagement - Airlines are launching sustainable flight programs to encourage passengers and corporate clients to pay for SAF or carbon offset credits, with Cathay Pacific's additional charge for 100% SAF contribution on a round trip from Hong Kong to Beijing estimated at HKD 1,578.78 [5][6]. - The willingness of corporate clients with ESG commitments to pay for "green flights" is stronger compared to individual travelers, indicating a potential market for SAF initiatives [6][8]. Government Initiatives - Local governments in regions like Hong Kong, Sichuan, and Shanghai are actively working to establish SAF supply chains, with Hong Kong aiming to develop a local SAF industry and enhance its competitive edge [9][10]. - The Singapore government is exploring a sustainable aviation fuel tax to fund SAF procurement, which could serve as a model for other regions [6][7]. Market Opportunities - The strong raw material advantages in the Chinese mainland market are creating more opportunities for SAF development, with various projects underway to establish a comprehensive SAF industry chain [11].

产能迅猛扩张 据阿格斯咨询公司预测，亚太地区的SAF产能将迎来飞跃，2026年将达到350万吨/年(77671桶/日)，相 较于2024年的124万吨/年，近乎增长两倍。除中国外，亚洲至少有5个SAF项目已投产或计划今年投 产，不少项目将出口作为重要目标，瞄准了本地区其他国家和欧洲市场。 日本炼油商科斯莫能源公司从今年4月起生产SAF。今年，东南亚地区SAF项目投资总额超5亿美元，泰 国PTT全球化学公司旗下SAF工厂已投产，泰国Bangchak石油公司也将于第二季度投产其SAF工厂。不 仅如此，芬兰耐思特公司和贝恩资本支持的EcoCeres公司同样积极布局，EcoCeres公司计划今年第四季 度在马来西亚柔佛投产年产42万吨的SAF和生物柴油生产装置，投产后其总产能将达77万吨/年。 需求增长乏力 尽管SAF在减少碳排放方面优势显著，是航空业减排的关键，但在亚洲，其市场需求却远不及产能扩张 的速度。与欧洲目前要求从欧盟和英国机场起飞的航班，必须在航空燃料中掺混2%的SAF不同，亚洲 要到2026年才会开始强制使用SAF，不少国家要到本十年末才开始推行强制使用政策。新加坡和泰国将 从2026年开始，要求本国机 ...