此外，"壹评级"指出，在反内卷背景下，民航局提出整治内卷式票价，航空供给约束不断强化。因此在 需求相对刚性的背景下，"壹评级"继续看好航空板块周期反转。 春运第一至九天，国内民航客运量日均值 233.6万人次，同比增长4.8%；近七日国内民航全票价（含 油）同比增长2.5%。第一财经"壹评级"认为春运航空客运量保持稳健增长，供给放缓背景下票价趋势向 好。 政策方面，2026年商务部等九部门印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，"壹评级"认为扩大服务 消费有利于拉动航空出行需求。 成本方面，"壹评级"认为布伦特油价在60—70美元/桶区间波动，对航司的成本端相对友好；叠加近期 人民币兑美元持续升值，航司美元负债产生汇兑收益，利好航司业绩增长。 相关公司评级与估值： (本文来自第一财经) 综合春运航空数据、人民币升值和油价稳定等多重利好因素，"壹评级"认为2026年航空周期反转的确定 性较强，推荐关注。从估值角度看，"壹评级"认为航空板块估值整体合理。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aviation industry [13]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is expected to experience a supply-demand mismatch, with demand trends showing a determined upward trajectory while actual supply is projected to decline. This situation is anticipated to lead to a price reversal starting in 2026, with profitability gradually improving until 2030 [3][10]. - The demand structure is diverse, comprising domestic business travel, personal travel, inbound foreign tourists, and outbound Chinese tourists. The industry is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% from 2026 to 2028, with international demand growth outpacing domestic [8][45]. - Supply constraints are primarily driven by prolonged engine maintenance cycles and geopolitical tensions affecting aircraft manufacturing, leading to a forecasted decline in actual supply growth from 2026 to 2028 [9][25]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The aviation industry operates under a multi-factor model influenced by demand, supply, oil prices, and exchange rates. The supply is predominantly controlled by overseas manufacturers, making it a seller's market with long aircraft introduction cycles [7][25]. Demand - The demand is categorized into four segments: domestic business (42%), domestic personal travel (35%), inbound foreign tourists (17%), and outbound Chinese tourists (6%). The demand is expected to show resilience against economic fluctuations, with a projected CAGR of 4.1% from 2026 to 2028 [8][45]. Supply - The supply side is constrained by extended engine maintenance cycles, which are expected to triple starting in 2025, leading to a decrease in available aircraft. The net introduction of new aircraft is anticipated to remain low, with a compound growth rate of approximately 2.6% over the next three years [9][25]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in major airlines such as China National Aviation (H+A), Spring Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, as the industry prepares for a cyclical recovery driven by improving supply-demand dynamics and potential cost reductions in oil and exchange rates [3][10].