Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook based on improving fundamentals and demand recovery [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong demand for air travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic passenger flow increasing by 6.5% year-on-year and international passenger flow by 4.4% [6][9]. - The average domestic ticket price rose by 3.3% to 931 yuan, while the average passenger load factor improved by 1.4 percentage points to 85.5% [9]. - Supply growth is robust, with a 6.9% year-on-year increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) during the Spring Festival period, and aircraft utilization rates have also improved significantly [20]. - The average flight distance increased slightly by 1.7% to 1394 kilometers, contributing to a 1.7% year-on-year improvement in average revenue per passenger kilometer [29]. - International routes, particularly to Southeast Asia and South Korea, have seen rapid growth, with a 5.1% increase in passenger volume [37]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Demand - The total passenger flow for the first 20 days of the Spring Festival reached 47.49 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [9]. 2. Supply Side - The supply side has expanded orderly, with narrow-body aircraft utilization significantly contributing to growth [20]. 3. Revenue Levels - The average revenue per passenger kilometer improved, reflecting changes in travel patterns and network adjustments [29]. 4. Airports - Ticket prices at major tourist and provincial airports have shown strong growth, with notable increases in passenger numbers [32]. 5. International Routes - There has been a notable increase in passenger flow to destinations like Thailand and South Korea, indicating a recovery in international travel [37]. 6. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - Brent crude oil prices have risen to 71.8 USD per barrel, while the exchange rate for the US dollar against the offshore yuan has shown slight improvement [39].

记者从民航局了解到，春运期间，传统的返乡流、探亲流、学生流与旺盛的旅游度假客流相互叠加，航 空出行需求将进一步释放。据预测，今年春运全国民航旅客运输量有望达到9500万人次，日均238万人 次，同比增长约5.3%。 国泰海通证券认为，春运预售开始启动，旺季表现有望继续催化长逻辑乐观预期。元旦后航空市场进入 传统淡季，航空公司深入"反内卷"管控低价非理性竞争。根据观察，随着大学陆续放假，且公商出行逐 步恢复，近日航空量价开始回升。同时，近日春运预售开始启动，出票量大增。预计2026年春运需求将 保持旺盛；民航将严控干线市场航司增加与增班，春运加班将较为有限；春节拼假效应将弱于往年，节 前节后客流集中或有利航司收益管理。中国航空供给已进入低增时代，且票价已市场化，航空需求稳健 增长与航司收益管理改善将驱动票价盈利上行且可持续，具有业绩估值双重空间。 中泰证券（600918）认为，今年春节偏晚或导致不同人群返程节奏出现分化，目前全国高校寒假正陆续 开启，预计学生群体的出行有望带动市场需求提升。短期来看，油汇利好有望延续，叠加后续"反内 卷"及春运假期催化，航空量价向好预期较强，看好基本面积极变化带动下的航空投资机会 ...