Core Viewpoint - The three major airlines in China have seen a collective rise in stock prices, indicating positive market sentiment driven by anticipated growth in passenger traffic and favorable industry trends [1] Group 1: Airline Stock Performance - China Southern Airlines (600029) increased by 3.21%, reaching HKD 6.11 [1] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) rose by 2.38%, reaching HKD 5.59 [1] - Air China (601111) gained 2.1%, reaching HKD 7.3 [1] Group 2: Passenger Traffic Projections - The Ministry of Transport forecasts that from December 31, 2025, to January 2, 2026, the total civil aviation passenger volume will reach 5.976 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - On January 3, the national civil aviation is expected to transport 2.08 million passengers, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.8% [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Huayuan Securities suggests that Q3 performance may signal the start of a long-term market trend [1] - Current demand growth is stable and sustainable, with both existing and new supply tightening [1] - Improvements in cost due to oil and exchange rates, along with a consensus on "anti-involution" within the industry, are forming clear trends [1] - It is recommended to position investments in advance [1]

新华财经上海1月3日电（记者王鹤）综合出行平台航班管家3日发布数据显示，2025年我国民航完成旅 客运输7.7亿人次，同比增长5.5%，较2019年增长16.7%，创历史新高。 其中，国内航线（含地区）完成旅客运输6.9亿人次，同比增长3.9%、比2019年增长17.9%；国际航线完 成旅客运输0.8亿人次，同比增长21.7%、比2019年增长7.3%。 2025年民航客运航班总量达563.9万班次（日均15450班次），同比增长3.5%、比2019年增长7.3%。按航 班类型划分，国内航班（含地区）495.5万班次，同比增长1.8%、同比2019年增长10.7%；国内航空公司 国际航班量比2019年增长3.6%。 2023年国内旅客运输量已超2019年水平，客座率也不断走高，航空公司普遍采取"以价换量"策略，2024 年经济舱平均票价同比下滑12.7%，2025年依旧延续低票价策略，全年经济舱平均票价738元，同比下 滑3.1%，呈现"旺丁不旺财"的现象。 航班管家预计，2026年，我国民航进入自然增长状态，国内国际皆稳步增长，2026年民航全年旅客运输 量达8.05亿人次，同比2025年增长4.6%。分航 ...

来源：民航之翼 2025 年民航业已稳稳站在常态化发展新起点，旅客运输量创下历史新高，航司盈利实现实质性突破。 迈入 2026 年，行业将迎来供需格局重塑、政策红利释放、创新动能集聚的关键一年，翼哥继续为大家 带来新一年民航十大展望。 整体而言，2026年民航业"中性偏乐观"！ 一、增长新常态：中速增长 2026年将是十五五的开局之年，民航业将迎来一个全新的开始。 2026年，行业将彻底告别以2019年为基准的恢复性话语体系。 民航的增速值得关注。 中央经济工作会提出的"盘活存量、左右增量"对民航业显得尤为重要。 未来对民航业来说，存量越来越大，增量越来越小，甚至有一天增量为负也不是不可能。 过去民航业的增速与GDP的增速有个乘数效应，大概是在1.4-1.5左右。 也就是说，民航业增速是GDP增速的1.4-1.5倍。 但未来可能这个乘数效应慢慢消失，与GDP增速趋同，甚至还低于GDP增速。 预计2026年民航业增速在5%左右，但客座率将维持高位，甚至高于2025年。 2026年将呈现"中速增长、高客座率"的增长新常态。 二、规模新突破：首破8亿人次 2025 年全民航旅客运输量顺利达成 7.7 亿人次的预期目 ...

作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 中国民航预计完成旅客运输7.7亿人次，同比2024年增长5.4%，同比2019年增长16.6%，旅客运 输创历年新高。 这是航班管家对2025年民航业表现作出的最新预测，预测报告同时显示，全年经济舱平均票价740 元，同比下滑2.9%，意味着中国民航在2025年依然"旺丁不旺财"。 国际航线开拓提速 在7.7亿人次的民航旅客中，国内航线贡献6.9亿人次，国际航线贡献0.8亿人次。这其中，国际旅客 同比2024年的增幅更高，这与中国民航的运力扩张明显向远程航线倾斜有关。 2025.12. 25 本文字数：1955，阅读时长大约4分钟 如何摆脱增收不增利 尽管如此，中国航司截至今年第三季度的息税前利润率（EBIT）维持在3–4%区间，仍低于亚太及 全球平均水平。对此，IBA认为源于国内市场受竞争激烈及历史高运力水平影响，盈利修复相对缓 慢。 国际航协最近发布的预测也显示，相比其他区域，亚太航司运送每位旅客的收益只有3.2美元（约合 23元人民币），是所有地区中赚得最少的。这与亚太地区的运力过剩不无关系。比如在中国，国内 市场的"内卷"给航司收益带来了持续的压力，即使是有低票价优势的春秋 ...

中国民航预计完成旅客运输7.7亿人次，同比2024年增长5.4%，同比2019年增长16.6%，旅客运输创历年新高。 这是航班管家对2025年民航业表现作出的最新预测，预测报告同时显示，全年经济舱平均票价740元，同比下滑2.9%，意味着中国民航在2025年依然"旺丁 不旺财"。 国际航线开拓提速 在7.7亿人次的民航旅客中，国内航线贡献6.9亿人次，国际航线贡献0.8亿人次。这其中，国际旅客同比2024年的增幅更高，这与中国民航的运力扩张明显向 远程航线倾斜有关。 全球航空数据、估值与咨询机构IBA航空集团在近日举办的行业峰会上就提到，中国民航2025年的可用座公里（ASK）预计同比增长5.8%，其中国际ASK预 计增长11.9%，反映出关键国际市场逐步重启、长途航线网络持续修复。相比之下，国内市场的运力增长有所放缓，ASK预计增长3.2%，低于去年的8.0%。 这与国内民航市场的"内卷"不无关系。早在2023年，国内旅客运输量就已超疫情前的2019年水平，客座率也不断走高，2025年再创年度新高，但这背后是国 内航司普遍采取的"以价换量"策略：2024年经济舱平均票价同比下滑12.7%，2025年依旧延续 ...

Core Insights - The number of civil aviation passengers from mainland China to Japan has significantly declined, with a projected decrease in passenger load factor by 12.3 percentage points and a 10.8% drop in passenger volume compared to the previous week [1] - As of November 19, there has not been a widespread cancellation of flights, but the cancellation rate on November 18 reached 13.4%, the highest in the past five days [1] - The weekly flight volume from mainland China to Japan has decreased due to the aviation season change and market factors, with a flight volume of 1,189 flights in the 45th week of 2025, representing an 82.9% recovery rate compared to the same period in 2019, and a 14.5% decrease from the 40th week [1] Flight Operations - In October, the round-trip flight volume from mainland China to Japan decreased by 471 flights compared to September, with a total of 11,242 round-trip flights and 104 operational routes [1] - Major airlines operating on the China-Japan route include 23 carriers, with 17 being domestic airlines; China Eastern Airlines holds over 20% of the domestic airline market share in terms of flight volume [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is experiencing a significant recovery after being undervalued for the past two to three years due to the pandemic and international flight disruptions, with recent data indicating a strong upward trend in stock prices and operational metrics [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since October 9, 2025, the Hong Kong aviation sector has seen substantial gains, with increases of 3.47%, 5.68%, and 5.38% on October 9, 15, and 20 respectively, leading to a cumulative rise of 15.14% [1] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) has recorded a cumulative increase of 37.42%, while China Southern Airlines (01055) has seen a rise of 22.57% [1] Group 2: Passenger Demand and Flight Operations - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays have driven a surge in travel, with an estimated 2.432 billion people traveling during the holiday period, marking a historical high and a 6.2% year-on-year increase [3] - Civil aviation passenger volume reached 19.138 million during the holiday, with a daily average of 2.392 million, reflecting increases of 4.1% and 26.9% compared to 2024 and 2019 respectively [3] - The number of flights executed daily has increased to 15,539, a 3.73% rise from the previous year, indicating stable growth in flight operations [3] Group 3: Pricing and Cost Dynamics - The average domestic economy class ticket price in September 2025 was 697 yuan, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, while prices during the holiday period averaged 849 yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year [5] - Oil prices are expected to decline, which could enhance the profitability of airlines as the cost of aviation fuel decreases [5] Group 4: Long-term Industry Outlook - The aviation industry is poised for a "super cycle" due to a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with demand expected to grow significantly as consumer behavior shifts towards leisure travel and business travel recovers [7][9] - The supply side faces constraints, with global aircraft manufacturing capacity recovering slowly, and domestic capacity growth projected at only 3.1% annually from 2025 to 2028 [10] - Market reforms and industry self-regulation have improved pricing power for airlines, leading to a potential increase in profitability as demand continues to rise [11] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The aviation sector is entering a phase characterized by high demand, low supply, and supportive policies, creating conditions for a sustainable profit growth period from 2025 to 2028 [12] - Investors are encouraged to focus on full-service airlines with hub advantages and international route flexibility, as well as low-cost carriers with efficient operational models [12]

Core Insights - The total inter-regional mobility during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday from October 1 to 8 is expected to reach 2.432 billion trips, averaging 304 million trips per day, which represents a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] Transportation Modes Summary - Railway passenger volume is projected to be approximately 153.96 million trips, averaging 19.24 million trips per day, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6% [1] - Waterway passenger volume is expected to be around 11.67 million trips, averaging 1.46 million trips per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [1] - Civil aviation passenger volume is anticipated to reach 19.17 million trips, averaging 2.4 million trips per day, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [1] - Road mobility, including both non-commercial passenger car trips and commercial passenger transport, is estimated at about 2.2475 billion trips, averaging over 280 million trips per day, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [1] - As the main mode of travel, self-driving cars are expected to account for an average of 240 million trips per day, representing about 80% of the total travel volume [1]

Core Insights - Guangdong's highway traffic volume reached a new record of 10.535 million vehicles on October 7, surpassing the previous peak of 10.2911 million vehicles recorded on October 1, 2025 [1][3] Traffic Volume Summary - The traffic volume from cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area accounted for over 75%, with approximately 8.0197 million vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.83% [3] - Specific bridge traffic volumes include: - Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge: approximately 24,200 vehicles, up 55.97% year-on-year [3] - Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge: approximately 172,600 vehicles, up 27.03% year-on-year [3] - Humen Bridge: approximately 150,800 vehicles, up 27.76% year-on-year [3] - Nansha Bridge: approximately 199,100 vehicles, up 12.74% year-on-year [3] Passenger Flow Summary - On October 7, the Qiongzhou Strait ferry service recorded a passenger throughput of 114,300 people and 17,100 vehicles [3] - Total inter-regional personnel flow in Guangdong reached 37.7789 million, with the following breakdown: - Railway passenger volume: 1.7304 million, down 2.78% year-on-year [3] - Road passenger volume: 35.6246 million, up 22.7% year-on-year [3] - Waterway passenger volume: 154,600, up 21.54% year-on-year [3] - Civil aviation passenger volume: 269,300, up 6.62% year-on-year [3] - Arriving passengers: 286,100, up 3.60% year-on-year [3] Traffic Management Measures - To address potential congestion and accident risks during peak return traffic, Guangdong's highways are utilizing technology to enhance traffic efficiency and emergency response capabilities [4] - Specific measures include the use of drones for aerial monitoring of traffic conditions, rapid congestion management, and quick intervention in minor accidents [4]

Group 1 - The total inter-regional personnel flow in China is expected to exceed 299 million on October 5, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - The railway system has sent over 100 million passengers from September 29 to October 4, with a projected passenger volume of 17.55 million on October 5 [1] - The road travel volume is expected to exceed 277 million on October 5, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, primarily focusing on short-distance travel [3] Group 2 - Waterway passenger volume is projected to be 1.7 million on October 5, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [3] - Civil aviation is expected to handle 2.35 million passengers, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.6%, and is set to operate 18,066 flights [3] - The railway sector is enhancing the efficient transportation of key materials such as electricity, coal, and food during the holiday period [5][9] Group 3 - The railway departments are coordinating resources to ensure the smooth and efficient transport of essential goods during the holiday [5] - Specific focus is placed on the inspection of freight trains carrying essential goods to ensure safety and reliability [7] - The Wuhan Railway Bureau is prioritizing the transportation of key materials like grain and coal through major freight corridors [9]