Group 1 - The first domestic green methanol demonstration project, led by State Power Investment Corporation Jidian Co., Ltd., aims to create a complete industrial chain for green liquid fuel, integrating "green methanol production - fuel refueling - ocean shipping" [1] - The project, with an investment of 4.29 billion, is expected to produce 197,200 tons of green methanol annually and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 300,000 tons per year, contributing to the decarbonization of the shipping industry [1] - Green methanol is considered an ideal alternative to traditional marine fuels due to its liquid state at normal temperature and pressure, ease of storage and transportation, and significantly lower carbon footprint throughout its lifecycle [1] Group 2 - Companies like Fuzhi Environmental Protection are focusing on developing integrated technologies for green methanol production through anaerobic fermentation and gasification processes [2] - Jiaze New Energy is entering the green methanol business in collaboration with Ningxia Jiaze Group, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's growth potential [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has approved the "IMO Net Zero Framework" draft, aiming for net-zero emissions in international shipping by around 2050, which will create significant demand for green methanol [13][30] - Green methanol is emerging as a primary alternative fuel due to its low carbon emissions, with a CO2 reduction potential of up to 90% compared to traditional fuels [2][38] - The supply of green methanol is becoming economically viable, with China's production capacity expected to lead in scaling up supply [4][72] Policy - The IMO's net-zero framework will be enforced starting in 2027, applying to ocean-going vessels over 5,000 gross tons, which account for approximately 85% of international shipping CO2 emissions [13][30] - The framework includes mandatory fuel standards and a greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism, marking a significant regulatory shift in the shipping industry [19][30] Demand - The scale of alternative fuel vessels is rapidly increasing, with methanol ships becoming a mainstream choice. As of early 2025, 51.1% of new ship orders are expected to be capable of using alternative fuels [3][49] - Major shipping companies are actively investing in methanol-powered vessels, with Maersk leading the way in adopting methanol as a fuel source [55][58] Supply - Green methanol production is primarily through electrolysis and biomass processes, with current production costs for green methanol ranging from 4,600 to 5,500 yuan per ton for electrolysis and 3,400 to 5,300 yuan per ton for biomass [4][72] - As of August 2025, global green methanol production capacity is projected to reach 51.9 million tons, with China holding a 55% share of the global project reserve [4][72]

Group 1: Green Methanol Project - The 11th China (Shanghai) International Technology Import and Export Fair opened with nearly a thousand exhibitors, showcasing advanced technologies including a commercial green methanol plant [1] - Shanghai Electric's green methanol integrated demonstration project in Jilin is expected to produce its first batch of green methanol by early July, marking it as the first large-scale commercial green methanol project in China [1] - Green methanol, produced from green hydrogen and biomass, has over a 65% reduction in carbon emissions compared to conventional methanol throughout its lifecycle [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Collaboration - The Shanghai Electric project plans to implement in two phases, with an initial capacity of 50,000 tons per year, expanding to 200,000 tons per year in the second phase, aiming for a total capacity of 250,000 tons by 2027 [5] - The project utilizes a world-first pure oxygen pressurized fluidized bed biomass gasification system, capable of processing 300 tons of biomass per day [5] - A long-term supply agreement was signed between Shanghai Electric, CMA CGM Group, and Shanghai Port Group to transport green methanol from Jilin to Shanghai for commercial logistics vessels [5] Group 3: Shipping Industry and Decarbonization - The shipping industry is exploring various decarbonization technologies, with green methanol seen as a key player due to its suitability for large vessels [2] - Domestic planned green methanol projects have a total annual production capacity exceeding 10 million tons [2]