中青报·中青网记者 谭思静 实习生 沈天健 2026年马年新春前夕，南京的冬夜被一束束温暖的光点亮。 在玄武门明城墙上，在颐和路的民国建筑墙面，在中山陵音乐台的照壁前，一匹匹色彩斑斓的卡通小马 跃然其上。一辆由电动车改装成的"战马"驮着投影设备骑行，将光影投射在这些地标建筑上。马儿们有 的长着翅膀，有的额前有一只犄角，有的穿着新衣，或奔腾，或驻足，栩栩如生。 一群孩子轮流坐在这辆"战马"车上，看着自己画的马在墙上"跟"着自己跑，兴奋地挥舞双手。光影流动 间，夜跑的市民停下了脚步，拍照的年轻人举起了手机。 当城墙上出现一匹"展翅高飞"的彩色小马时，许多路人由衷赞叹："这匹马真好看！"那个叫"小柠檬"的 孩子，脸上露出了自豪的笑容。 令所有人惊讶的是，这些在南京地标上"奔跑"的马，原始笔触来自一群"星星的孩子"——孤独症儿童。 市民们站 在城墙前跟投影出的小马形象合影。王婷供图 小马真的在南京明城墙上跑起来了！ "小马真的跑起来了！"在玄武湖的明城墙下，一个叫"葡萄"的孩子拽着母亲的衣角，激动地大喊。他画 的马，穿着彩色的服饰，连同他的心愿，"我想骑小马"，被投影在六百多年的明城墙上，随着光影流 动，马儿仿佛活了 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is facing market concerns regarding its growth sustainability due to fluctuations in high-frequency data and discussions about the second-hand market prices, but there are three key discrepancies in market expectations that create valuation opportunities [1]. Group 1: Market Resilience and Sales Dynamics - The decline in overseas online sales, particularly from TikTok Shop, is overstated, as overall channel performance remains resilient. For instance, TikTok Shop's sales in the U.S. dropped approximately 10% quarter-on-quarter, but this does not account for the recovery of physical store sales, which had previously been impacted by stock shortages [3][6]. - In Southeast Asia, while TikTok sales in Thailand are under pressure, the number of physical stores has doubled, indicating a shift from online to flagship stores, which reflects channel optimization rather than a decline in popularity [6]. Group 2: IP Portfolio Diversification - There is a misconception that Pop Mart overly relies on the Labubu IP. Internal data shows that the diversification of its IP matrix is progressing faster than perceived, with Labubu's sales share in domestic channels dropping to around 30% in Q4, while new IPs like Starry and Crybaby are gaining traction [11][13]. - In Indonesia, Labubu's online sales share has fallen below 40%, with new IPs collectively accounting for over 50% of sales, highlighting the growing importance of these new characters [15]. Group 3: Transition to an IP Ecosystem Company - The market tends to value Pop Mart as a toy company, focusing on monthly sales data, while it is transitioning into a content-driven IP group. The company is actively developing content, including an animated series and a film adaptation of Labubu by Sony Pictures [19][20]. - The expansion of Beijing's theme park and new business ventures are part of building a more comprehensive ecosystem that connects deeply with fans, which has not yet been reflected in the current stock price [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how Xiaohongshu aims to create a new art market that differs from traditional auction houses like Sotheby's, focusing on the integration of social media and direct artist-collector interactions [2][10][29]. Group 1: Traditional Art Market Success - Sotheby's achieved a record-breaking auction with a painting sold for $236.4 million, marking the highest price ever for a contemporary artwork [2][5]. - The auction's success was attributed to a well-planned and expensive marketing strategy, which included significant renovations to their headquarters [5][7]. - Despite Sotheby's success, the overall art market is experiencing a downturn, with a 33.5% decline in global auction sales in 2024, the lowest since 2009 [8][10]. Group 2: Emerging Online Art Ecosystem - The decline in high-end art sales has led to a rise in lower-priced artworks, with over 50% of art sales below $607, indicating a shift towards more accessible art [14][10]. - Social media platforms, particularly Xiaohongshu, are reshaping art buying habits, with 51% of high-net-worth collectors purchasing art through Instagram [14][15]. - Xiaohongshu has initiated programs to support young artists, including online graduation exhibitions and a dedicated plan for promoting emerging talents [15][29]. Group 3: Direct Artist-Collector Interaction - Xiaohongshu allows artists to interact directly with collectors, breaking the traditional pyramid structure of the art market, which often limits access to a select few [25][28]. - The platform has seen rapid growth in art-related content, with established artists now actively engaging with audiences through Q&A sessions and sharing their creative processes [26][28]. - The online art ecosystem on Xiaohongshu is becoming a self-sustaining commercial model, with successful live-streaming sales generating significant revenue [29][30]. Group 4: Future of Art Consumption - The article suggests that as online platforms mature, they will facilitate a more transparent pricing environment, impacting traditional art pricing structures [39][38]. - There is optimism about the potential for increased art consumption as more people become aware of the unique appeal of art through online channels [38][39]. - Xiaohongshu's initiatives are seen as a precursor to a broader transformation in the art market, driven by the demand for accessible and diverse artistic expressions [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Pop Mart's stock price, which has dropped nearly 25% from its peak on August 26, is primarily driven by market concerns over the second-hand prices of certain popular products and the sustainability of their popularity. However, the company believes that second-hand prices are not a reasonable indicator of popularity, as the current price adjustments are mainly driven by supply expansion rather than changes in demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The fluctuation in the second-hand prices of Labubu is attributed to increased supply rather than a decline in popularity, as evidenced by stable or increasing prices for products not affected by capacity changes [2]. - The company maintains a leading position in the artist IP toy market, with exclusive brand positioning and control over supply, which allows for a highly expandable product lifecycle [2]. - The balance of supply and demand is crucial for enhancing fan experience and mitigating the impact of counterfeit products [2]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Pricing Strategy - Recent product launches, such as Mini Labubu, have generated significant fan engagement and strong sales performance in North America, showcasing the company's ability to blend product and social play [3]. - The company has demonstrated flexibility in pricing strategies, as seen with the price increase of SP plush toys to 159 yuan, indicating strong pricing power in the rubber plush category [3]. - Upcoming quarterly results are anticipated to be positive, driven by pre-sale shipments and new product launches, with Q4 expected to benefit from the overseas peak season and anniversary series [3]. Group 3: Long-term Growth Drivers - The company is expected to see substantial growth in 2026, driven by rapid capacity expansion in plush products and a low base in the first three quarters [4]. - The global commercial value of the company's largest IP, The Monsters, has significant growth potential, with the top five IPs showing strong momentum [4]. - The company plans to expand its overseas store count to over 180 by 2025, enhancing brand influence through flagship store openings [4]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 14%/12%/12% to 116 billion, 170 billion, and 220 billion yuan, respectively, driven by capacity expansion and product upgrades [4]. - The target price has been increased by 14% to 396 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's high growth potential and expanding global IP influence [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a target price of HKD 396.00 [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Recent stock price corrections of Pop Mart, which have dropped nearly 25% from the August 26 high, are primarily driven by market concerns over the decline in second-hand prices of certain popular products and the sustainability of their popularity. However, the report argues that second-hand prices are not a reasonable measure of popularity, as the current price adjustments are mainly driven by supply expansion rather than changes in demand [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve a successful path of "artistic equity," which lays a solid foundation for sustainable long-term growth. The report suggests that investors should actively seize the opportunity to position themselves for future gains [2][3]. Summary by Sections Second-Hand Price Fluctuations and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in the second-hand prices of Labubu are attributed to increased supply rather than changes in demand. The report highlights that the second-hand prices of products unaffected by capacity changes, such as Labubu blind box figures, have remained stable or increased, indicating strong IP popularity [3][12]. - Pop Mart's unique brand positioning and supply control in the artist IP toy market provide it with a competitive edge, reducing the likelihood of new entrants causing supply excess and price instability [3][14]. New Product Launches and Pricing Strategies - Recent product launches, such as Mini Labubu, have generated significant fan engagement and strong sales performance in North America. The company demonstrates flexibility in pricing strategies, allowing for differentiated pricing across various IPs and series [4][5]. - The upcoming Q3 earnings report is anticipated to reflect positive impacts from new product releases and the holiday season, with expectations for continued high growth in Q4 [4][5]. Long-Term Growth Drivers - The report outlines several growth drivers for Pop Mart's performance through 2026, including rapid capacity expansion in plush toys, a diverse range of new product categories, and the potential for significant revenue growth from major IPs like The Monsters [5][23]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its store presence, particularly overseas, which will enhance brand influence and customer acquisition [5][23]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be RMB 116 billion, RMB 170 billion, and RMB 220 billion, respectively, reflecting an upward revision of 14% for 2025 [6][9]. - The target price is set at HKD 396, based on a PE ratio of 42x for 2025, which is higher than the average PE of comparable companies [6][33]. Unique Business Model and Market Position - Pop Mart's unique business model, characterized by strong control over the entire industry chain, allows for both IP innovation and product category innovation, reinforcing its market position [31][34]. - The establishment of a global fan ecosystem enhances the company's ability to transmit heat across regions and IPs, further solidifying its competitive advantage [34].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that Pop Mart's capacity ramp-up leads to a rebalancing of supply and demand, indicating a successful path for the company's "art equality" strategy, establishing a solid foundation for sustainable long-term growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The report suggests that the adjustment in the shareholding structure is likely to become more long-term oriented, recommending investors to actively seize layout opportunities and maintaining a "buy" rating while raising the target price by 14% to HKD 396 [1] - The company possesses significant pricing power over its vinyl plush products, allowing it to implement differentiated pricing strategies across various IPs and series, thereby maximizing profitability [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Anticipation for the upcoming Q3 results is high, driven by pre-sale shipments and new products like Mini Labubu, with expectations for continued strong performance in the fourth quarter due to the overseas peak season and anniversary series new products [1] - Huatai Securities has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 14%, 12%, and 12%, reaching CNY 11.6 billion, CNY 17 billion, and CNY 22 billion respectively [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The diversity in target audience, product categories, and experiential formats is seen as the three pillars supporting the longevity of Pop Mart's IP [1]