1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term view maintains a bullish stance [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, while the demand side shows resilience, with the overall supply - demand in a tight balance. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory of the total inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the pressure on mill inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk is marginally improving but still relatively high year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post - holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The supply - demand tight balance and inventory reduction support prices, and subsequent attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Currently, the macro - economic easing expectations and pre - holiday weak demand are in a tug - of - war, with cautious market sentiment and low volatility [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Tuesday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract decreased by 6,369 lots, with a trading volume of 288,700 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,306 yuan. It showed a weak intraday oscillation. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5 - day moving average in the short term, but found support near the 30 - day moving average, closing at 3,289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or 0.60% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The spot - futures basis was 1 yuan, basically at par [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand side**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. Although demand declined slightly month - on - month, it maintained year - on - year growth. Pre - holiday stockpiling supported demand, and overall demand showed strong resilience [4] - **Inventory side**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons week - on - week to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week - on - week, and mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons), and increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year - on - year increase indicated that the inventory accumulation rate this year was slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk was controllable [4] - **Policy side**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of winter stockpiling demand, export rush market, policy support ("the 14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as furnace feed [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]