钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-11-20 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3070 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 20 元/吨（-0.64%）。当日注册仓单 95087 吨, 环比增加 8415 吨。主力合约持仓量为 163.1133 万手，环比减少 24336 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3277 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 9 元/吨（-0.27%）。 当日注册仓单 120567 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the gold market indicates a bullish outlook, with prices showing strong upward momentum and breaking through significant resistance levels [1][3]. Price Movement - As of September 2, the price of London gold reached $3,492.67 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.50% and a peak of $3,508.49 per ounce [1]. - Over the past five trading days, gold has accumulated a rise of over 3%, with a recent high of $3,508.46 per ounce, reflecting a gain of approximately 0.93% [3]. - After breaching the $3,500 mark, gold experienced a quick pullback of nearly $20, currently trading around $3,492.84 per ounce [3]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the demand for gold reserves is increasing in importance compared to U.S. Treasury securities, reinforcing gold's status as a reliable safe-haven asset [3]. - The current macroeconomic environment characterized by monetary easing and heightened risk aversion is driving gold prices higher [3]. - The weak U.S. dollar and global uncertainties are contributing factors that may allow gold to continue challenging historical highs [3]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows a gradual recovery in technical patterns, with short-term moving averages beginning to trend upwards, indicating potential for further price increases [5]. - The daily chart indicates that gold prices are maintaining a strong upward trend without signs of peaking, with a focus on the resistance level around $3,520 [5]. - The hourly chart shows a minor consolidation followed by a second upward movement, suggesting that traders should watch for potential pullbacks before further gains [5]. Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests entering long positions at the current price of $3,495, with a protective stop-loss set at $3,488, and to adjust stop-loss levels as prices rise above $3,500 [5].

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a high of $3486, the highest since April, driven by expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with an 87% probability according to CME tools [1][2] - The gold market is influenced by declining U.S. Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, and rate cut expectations, with inflation remaining sticky as the July PCE index year-on-year was at 2.6% and core PCE slightly increased to 2.9% [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - The current upward trend in gold prices is supported by macroeconomic easing expectations and risk aversion, with a weak dollar and global uncertainties contributing to the conditions for gold to challenge historical highs [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the $3440 resistance level, opening new upward potential, although short-term adjustments may occur around the psychological barrier of $3500 [2][4] - The weekly and daily charts show a positive trend for gold, with short-term support levels at $3463 and $3457, while the focus remains on potential upward movements towards historical highs [4]