Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the cancellation of export VAT rebates on various industries, particularly in the chemical and photovoltaic sectors, which is expected to stimulate short-term export activities and initiate long-term supply-side reforms and concentration in these industries [1] - The New Materials ETF Huaxia (516710) rose by 1.64%, with constituent stocks such as China National Materials and China Jushi hitting the daily limit, and Wanhua Chemical increasing by over 3% [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for 249 products starting from April 1, 2026, affecting over 80 chemical products including methanol, lithium hexafluorophosphate, 1,2-ethanediol, BDO, and PVC [1] Group 2 - The New Materials ETF Huaxia closely tracks the CSI New Materials Theme Index, which selects 50 listed companies involved in advanced steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and inorganic non-metallic materials, reflecting the overall performance of securities in the new materials sector [1] - The new materials content in the index reaches 79.85%, ranking first across all market dimensions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil futures showed a shrinking - volume oscillatory trend today. With the increase in the cost of raw materials (coking coal and coke), there is cost support in the short - term. The short - term pressure is around the 30 - day moving average, and the support below is at the previous low. Adopt a cautiously bullish approach. Currently, the upward movement is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward movement is supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely monitored: the inventory depletion speed and the implementation rhythm of "two major" projects and infrastructure investment. The policy support will determine the medium - term rebound space [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Wednesday decreased compared to the previous trading day, with an increase of 5,482 in open interest and a trading volume of 285,185 lots. The intraday low was 3,266 yuan and the high was 3,285 yuan. It oscillated within the day, breaking below the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages in the short - term, and closed at 3,274 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.18% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between the futures and the spot was - 4 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. The current output is at a medium - to - high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival and their production enthusiasm increased [4] - **Demand**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand increased slightly this week and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week - on - week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week - on - week, while the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased week - on - week, the inventory pressure was marginally relieved, and the overall inventory was in the destocking stage [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products were introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Expectation of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the hot-rolled coil futures declined with reduced positions and trading volume, hitting a new low in the past 20 trading days. The daily line broke below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is expected to remain weak. The short-term pressure is around the 5-day moving average. Fundamentally, the upward movement is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward movement is marginally supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely tracked: first, the inventory depletion speed. If the inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, the price may continue to decline. Second, the implementation pace of "dual-focus" projects and infrastructure investment. The policy support strength will determine the medium-term rebound space [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 Review - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the hot-rolled coil futures main contract reduced its position by 21,563 lots, with a trading volume of 335,114 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,257 yuan, and the high was 3,283 yuan. It declined with reduced positions during the day. From the daily moving average, it short-term broke below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, closing at 3,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan or 0.34% [1] - **Spot Price**: The mainstream hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and futures prices is 5 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a medium to high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production pace before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4] - **Demand**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand slightly increased this week and is at a relatively good level in the same period over the years [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week-on-week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased week-on-week, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in the process of destocking [4] - **Policy**: A new regulation on steel export license management was introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The hot-rolled coil futures decreased with a reduction in positions today, and the daily line fluctuated within a range. In the short term, it is mainly affected by market sentiment. Currently, the upward movement is restricted by high inventories and weak demand, while the downward movement is supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely monitored: the inventory depletion speed, as excessive inventory accumulation may lead to further price decline; and the implementation progress of "dual - heavy" projects and infrastructure investment, as the policy support will determine the medium - term rebound space. Currently, attention should be paid to the support of the previous platform [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 30,859 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 529,496 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,260 yuan, and the high was 3,298 yuan. It decreased with a reduction in positions, breaking below the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages in the short term, and closed at 3,261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan or 1.24% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 9 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons, which was at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival and their production enthusiasm increased [4] - Demand: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand increased slightly this week and was at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week - on - week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased, the inventory pressure was marginally relieved, and the overall inventory was in a destocking phase [4] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to rectify involution - style competition in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The expectation of winter storage demand, the rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strong performance of iron ore as a raw material [6] - Bearish factors: The unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, the seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and the suppression of prices by inventory accumulation [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current supply of hot-rolled coils has slightly increased, the demand is stable and resilient, and the overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The total inventory in social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has improved marginally. In general, the tight balance of supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the strength of demand recovery. Currently, the macro-loose expectation supports prices. Although there was an overall decline with increased volume today, it was mainly due to market sentiment. The lower support is near this week's low. Adopt a cautiously bullish approach [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Friday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 17,466 lots, with a trading volume of 523,900 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,285 yuan, and the high was 3,325 yuan. There was a decline with reduced open interest during the day. The short-term moving average fell below the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, closing at 3,288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.30% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was 2 yuan [3] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival, and production enthusiasm increased [4] - **Demand side**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. This week's apparent consumption slightly increased and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - **Inventory side**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week-on-week (social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, and steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in a destocking channel [4] - **Policy side**: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3.3 Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Steel mill复产 in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of hot-rolled coils has slightly increased, and the demand is stable and resilient. The overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter storage is an important support for current demand. The social inventory of the total inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has been marginally improved. In summary, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support the price. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the strength of demand recovery. Currently, the macro-loose expectation supports the price. Today, it has re-stepped on the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, maintaining a generally bullish outlook [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Thursday, the trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract was 434,547 lots, an increase from the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,277 yuan, and the high was 3,313 yuan. It increased in price with increased positions during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly crossed above the 5-day and 30-day moving averages in the short term, closing at 3,308 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.79% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -28 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills are still maintaining a high production pace before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4] - **Demand**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons month-on-month to 3.1141 million tons. This week's apparent consumption slightly increased and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons week-on-week to 3.5558 million tons (social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, while steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in a destocking phase [4] - **Policy**: A new regulation on the export license management of steel products has been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In 2026, in - depth rectification of involution - style competition was listed as a key task, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3.3 Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Expectation of the start of winter storage demand, rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The resumption of production by steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is "Bullish in the short - term" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting while the demand is resilient, with an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory is decreasing on a week - on - week basis, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable, with the overall inventory risk marginally improving. However, the inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. The market needs to focus on the impact of the post - holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices, and subsequent attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Currently, the macro - economic easing expectations and the pre - holiday weak demand are in a tug - of - war, with cautious market sentiment and low volatility. The technical support level is around last week's low, and a bullish view is maintained [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 9,222 lots, with a trading volume of 283,776 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,275 yuan, the high was 3,290 yuan, showing a weak intraday oscillation. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5 - day moving average and was near the 30 - day moving average, closing at 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.39% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and futures prices was 0 yuan, showing a near - flat price relationship [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons compared to the previous week to 3.0541 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 172,300 tons. The output decline reflects that steel mills' capacity release has converged, possibly affected by maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons compared to the previous week to 3.0996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 73,900 tons. Although the demand has slightly declined on a week - on - week basis, it has maintained growth on a year - on - year basis. Pre - holiday stockpiling supports demand, and the overall demand is resilient [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons compared to the previous week to 3.5778 million tons (the social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week - on - week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons), a year - on - year increase of 212,700 tons (the social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and the factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory has decreased on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory pressure has been marginally relieved. The year - on - year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of the start of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Steel mills' resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term view maintains a bullish stance [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, while the demand side shows resilience, with the overall supply - demand in a tight balance. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory of the total inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the pressure on mill inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk is marginally improving but still relatively high year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post - holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The supply - demand tight balance and inventory reduction support prices, and subsequent attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Currently, the macro - economic easing expectations and pre - holiday weak demand are in a tug - of - war, with cautious market sentiment and low volatility [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Tuesday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract decreased by 6,369 lots, with a trading volume of 288,700 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,306 yuan. It showed a weak intraday oscillation. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5 - day moving average in the short term, but found support near the 30 - day moving average, closing at 3,289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or 0.60% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The spot - futures basis was 1 yuan, basically at par [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand side**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. Although demand declined slightly month - on - month, it maintained year - on - year growth. Pre - holiday stockpiling supported demand, and overall demand showed strong resilience [4] - **Inventory side**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons week - on - week to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week - on - week, and mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons), and increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year - on - year increase indicated that the inventory accumulation rate this year was slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk was controllable [4] - **Policy side**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of winter stockpiling demand, export rush market, policy support ("the 14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as furnace feed [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. The weekly环比 apparent consumption has rebounded, and the year-on-year is still strong. The demand in the off-season has strong resilience. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, which exerts some pressure, but it has been continuously de-stocked recently. If this trend continues, the pressure will be alleviated. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average. Attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, it should be noted that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **期货价格**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 530 lots, and the trading volume was 326,133 lots, showing a slight increase compared with the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,295 yuan, and the high was 3,314 yuan. It oscillated and consolidated during the day. From the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to find support near the 10-day moving average and then rebounded. It was operating strongly above the medium-term 20-day moving average, closing at 3,307 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **现货价格**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **基差**: The basis between futures and spot was -17 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared with the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 118,300 tons. The output has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mill hot metal from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production by steel mills after annual maintenance, which promoted the increase in supply. The subsequent increase in supply needs to be observed [4]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared with the previous week. The apparent consumption rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 5,100 tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that demand still has resilience [4]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons compared with the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be de-stocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If the de-stocking trend continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - **Policy**: A new regulation on the export license management of steel products has been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involution competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Steel mill resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic sector may experience a significant rush - to - export market in the first quarter, which will marginally benefit the demand for related products. The lithium - battery sector, including batteries and ternary materials, has short - term rush - to - export drivers. The "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic sector will have a certain impact on the container shipping index (European line) [4][18][36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Photovoltaic Sector - **Export Tax Rebate System**: The export tax rebate system for photovoltaic products dates back to 2013. It has been adjusted several times, and from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic cells and modules will be cancelled. The expected cancellation of the tax rebate in 2025 Q3 led to a 10% quarter - on - quarter increase in component exports [7]. - **Impact on the Industry**: China's photovoltaic exports are mainly components, with about 40% going to Europe. After the cancellation of the tax rebate in April, the export cost per watt of components is expected to increase by $0.008 (equivalent to RMB 0.06 per watt), and the export profit per watt will drop to -$0.012, leading to potential losses in component exports [10]. - **European Market Situation**: The overall economic weakness in Europe, subsidy reduction, and limited grid capacity will lead to a 3% year - on - year decline in new photovoltaic installations in 2026. However, there is a clear peak - off - peak cycle. Before the policy adjustment on April 1, there will be a significant rush - to - export market, and component exports in Q1 2026 are expected to increase by 8 - 10GW compared to previous expectations [14]. - **Demand for Related Products**: In the first quarter, domestic installation demand is weak, but the rush - to - export of components will improve overall demand. It is expected to bring about 8 - 10GW of component demand increment, which will marginally benefit the demand for main and auxiliary materials of photovoltaic components [17]. 3.2 Lithium - Battery Sector - **Export Tax Rebate Policy**: The export tax rebate for lithium - ion batteries will be reduced to 9%, 6%, and 0% in December 2024, April 2026, and January 2027 respectively. The first reduction had no obvious impact, and in November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year exports of power and energy - storage batteries increased by 47% and 74% respectively [20]. - **Impact on Leading Enterprises**: The export tax rebate cancellation may reduce the policy support for enterprises by $1.8 billion. However, enterprises with a stable overseas market and strong bargaining power can better withstand the impact [21]. - **Export Demand of Power Batteries**: Power and energy - storage lithium - ion batteries rely on the export market by about 16% and 24% respectively. The core export area for power batteries is Europe. Although affected by US tariffs, the demand has strong resilience, and there will be a moderate "rush - to - export" demand [24]. - **Energy - Storage Batteries**: The domestic energy - storage battery market is highly competitive. With the cancellation of the 9% export tax rebate, there will be a strong "rush - to - export" demand in the Middle East, Chile and other regions. However, the current production capacity of battery factories is nearly saturated, so short - term export increments are limited [28]. - **Ternary Materials**: The export tax rebate for ternary materials and precursors will be reduced from 13% to 0%, with a greater impact on profits. NCM and NCM precursor materials mainly rely on exports to Japan and South Korea. The export tax rebate cancellation will have a greater impact on the upstream of the ternary lithium - battery industry chain and may stimulate a "rush - to - export" demand [31][35]. 3.3 Container Shipping Sector - **Transport Demand**: In 2025, the export of photovoltaic components to 12 European countries decreased by 6% compared to the same period in 2024. It is estimated that the "rush - to - export" of components may lead to the pre - shifting of 20,000 - 50,000 TEU of transport demand on the European line from Q2 to Q1, and the total transport demand on the European - Mediterranean route may increase by 40,000 - 70,000 TEU [39]. - **Impact on Container Shipping European Line**: The concentrated "rush - to - export" may occur from late February to March. The 20,000 - 50,000 TEU transport increment in the photovoltaic industry is difficult to change the monthly - level over - capacity situation. It will have a marginal positive impact on the loading rate from February to March but is negative for the transport demand after April. For the futures market, EC2602 is basically unaffected, and EC2604 has a downward - driving force, but it may not show an overly pessimistic discount [42].