一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周二持仓量减仓 6369 手，成交量 288700 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3283 元，最高价 3306 元，日内 震荡偏弱运行，日均线来看短期跌破 5 日均线，但 30 日均线附近有支撑，收于 3289 元/吨，下跌 2 元，跌幅 0.60%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3290 元/吨。相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期现基差 1 元，基本平水。 二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 22 日热卷周产量环比下降 2.95 万吨至 305.41 万吨。 年同比下降 17.23 万吨，产量环比回落，同比大幅下降，反映钢厂产能释放有 所收敛，可能受检修安排，利润波动等因素影响，支撑价格。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 22 日周度表观消费量环比下降 4.2 万吨至 309.96 万 吨，年同比上升 7.39 万吨，需求环比略有回落，但同比保持增长，节前备货对 需求形成支撑，整体需求韧性较强。 ■库存端：截止 1 月 22 日总库存周环比下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for hot - rolled coils is "Oscillating with an upward bias", maintaining a bullish view [6] Core Viewpoints - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, and the demand is resilient, resulting in an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable. Although the inventory is still high year - on - year, the overall inventory risk has marginally improved. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Technically, the price has stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **期货价格**: On Friday, the持仓 volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 33,977 lots, and the trading volume was 304,877 lots, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,310 yuan, with an oscillating upward trend. It closed at 3,305 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 0.52%. It has stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and if it holds, the probability of short - and medium - term strengthening is relatively high [1] - **现货价格**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **基差**: The basis between futures and spot was - 15 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. Although the demand has slightly declined month - on - month, it has maintained growth year - on - year. Pre - holiday stockpiling supports demand, and the overall demand is resilient [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month - on - month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month - on - month, and factory inventory increased by 1,100 tons). It increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has marginally eased. The year - on - year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on steel export license management will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are also being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting while demand is resilient, with an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. Total social inventory is decreasing month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has marginally improved, but it is still relatively high year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory depletion support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery. From a technical perspective, pay attention to the support around the 30-day moving average, and maintain a cautiously bullish outlook [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 4,160 lots, with a trading volume of 241,486 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,281 yuan, and the high was 3,296 yuan. The price fluctuated and stabilized during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to the support around the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the 10-day moving average. It closed at 3,287 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -7 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decline month-on-month and a significant year-on-year decrease reflect that steel mills' capacity utilization has converged, possibly affected by maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. Although the demand decreased slightly month-on-month, it maintained year-on-year growth. Pre-holiday stockpiling supported demand, and overall demand showed strong resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month-on-month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month-on-month, and steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). Year-on-year, it increased by 212,700 tons (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and steel mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year-on-year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation rate this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involutionary competition in depth was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial for prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply output, expectation of the start of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. The weekly-on-week apparent demand has rebounded, and the year-on-year demand remains strong. The demand during the off-season shows strong resilience. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, posing some pressure, but the recent continuous destocking may relieve the pressure if it persists. The daily line of hot-rolled coil futures is currently near the support of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can stabilize at this level and break through the pressure near the 10-day moving average. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach, but note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Wednesday, the trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated and stabilized within the day, with a daily low of 3271 yuan and a high of 3290 yuan. It closed at 3286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.06%. The short-term moving average retraced to the support near the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure near the 10-day moving average [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -16 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared to the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 1.183 million tons. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance [4]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 0.51 million tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating strong demand resilience [4]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons. The total inventory continued to decline, indicating strong demand for hot-rolled coils. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the destocking continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - **Policy**: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced, which will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡走弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 20 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周二持仓量减仓 15864 手，成交量 471822 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3275 元，最高价 3307 元，日内减仓下跌 运行，日均线来看跌破 5 日均线，60 日均线，收于 3276 元/吨，下跌 32 元，跌 幅 0.97%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3280 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期现基差 4 元，基差接近平水。 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 15 日热卷周产量环比上升 2.85 万吨至 308.36 万吨。 年同比下降 11.83 万吨，产量连续四周回升，主要还是钢厂盈利改善，生产积极 性有所提升，叠加部分钢厂铁水从建材向板材调配，且钢厂结束年度检修，复产 力度加大。推动供应回升，后续需要观察回升力度。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 15 日周度表观消费量环比上升 5.82 万吨至 314.16 万 吨，表需本周回升明显，年同比上升 0.51 万吨，需求数据处于近几年高位，需 求仍然存在韧性， 投资有风险， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish approach, recommending buying on dips [6]. Core Viewpoints - The current output pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still holds expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. The weekly-on-week recovery of apparent demand remains strong year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in off-season demand. The warming sentiment of winter storage may drive a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high, there has been continuous destocking recently, and if this trend continues, the pressure will ease. The hot-rolled coil futures have currently fallen below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and attention should be paid to the support around the 30-day moving average in the medium term. However, it has not completely broken out of the oscillation range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: The trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract on Monday decreased compared to the previous trading day. It showed a weak oscillation during the day, falling below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in the short term. It closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.75%. The intraday low was 3,291 yuan, and the high was 3,340 yuan. The open interest decreased by 12,645 lots, and the trading volume was 486,769 lots [1]. - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -9 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it decreased by 118,300 tons. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of hot metal from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance [4]. - Demand: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand rebounded significantly this week, up 5,100 tons year-on-year. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, with demand still showing resilience, mainly driven by accelerated exports and rigid procurement in the manufacturing industry. The willingness of end-users to stock up actively is weak, and speculative demand is also weak [4]. - Inventory: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons week-on-week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If destocking can continue, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution-style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, rush for export market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has declined slightly, it remains strong year-on-year. A slight decline in demand during the off-season is normal. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The high total inventory exerts some pressure. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 12,752 lots, and the trading volume was 404,061 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,296 yuan, and the high was 3,323 yuan. It oscillated and consolidated with increased open interest during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average but remained above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, closing at 3,303 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.09% [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -13 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was up 16,200 tons year-on-year, and the output has been rising for three consecutive weeks. This is mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the increased resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills. The follow-up supply increase needs to be observed [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. Although the apparent consumption declined slightly, it was up 72,500 tons year-on-year, indicating that demand still has resilience [4]. - **Inventory Side**: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared to the previous week (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, and the total inventory was at a near 5-year high. Inventory still exerts pressure on prices [4]. - **Policy Side**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term view of being cautiously bullish on hot - rolled coils [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current production pressure of hot - rolled coils is not significant. The anti - involution policy provides strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, the year - on - year performance is still strong. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The strong performance of coking coal and coke and the sharp rise of iron ore provide strong cost support. The high total inventory exerts some pressure. The hot - rolled coil market has large fluctuations and is currently near the moving - average support. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach and buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Friday decreased compared with the previous trading day. It decreased in position and fluctuated within the day, standing above the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages, closing at 3294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton or 1.02% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 14 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to spot [2] 2. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared with the previous week, and increased by 16,200 tons year - on - year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks due to improved profitability of steel mills, iron - water transfer from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after annual maintenance [3] - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared with the previous week, showing a slight decline. However, it increased by 72,500 tons year - on - year, indicating that demand still has resilience [3] - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared with the previous week. The social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and the steel - mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons. The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, and the total inventory was at a high level in the past five years, exerting pressure on prices [3] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the Central Economic Work Conference in December are beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real - estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply - side output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron - ore prices [5] - Bearish factors: Exceeding - expected resumption of production of steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is currently in a situation where cost support and inventory pressure are in a game under the pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation, and there are no unilateral driving factors for now. Attention should be paid to the winter storage market in January and the recovery slope of production capacity [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 43,907 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 511,982 lots. The intraday low was 3,280 yuan, the high was 3,308 yuan, and it closed at 3,287 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.55% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 3 yuan, approaching flat water [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 16,300 tons to 2.9354 million tons week-on-week, and decreased by 136,000 tons year-on-year. This week's output rebounded after a sharp decline last week, currently near the lowest level of the year and at a near 4-year low, enhancing price support. The reduction in production was mainly due to profit contraction, more steel mill maintenance, some steel mills switching to rebar production, and the seasonal off-season [3]. - Demand: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 87,600 tons to 3.0704 million tons week-on-week, and decreased by 22,900 tons year-on-year. This week's apparent consumption rebounded, and the export rush market emerged, but the winter storage market in January still needs to be monitored [3]. - Inventory: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 135,000 tons to 3.7722 million tons week-on-week (social inventory decreased by 106,000 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 29,000 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, and the destocking accelerated, indicating that demand was resilient in late December, likely due to enterprises rushing to export. However, the total inventory was at a near 4-year high. The subsequent destocking speed needs to be monitored [3]. - Policy: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses were introduced. In the short term, it will cause export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4]. - External Macro: In the United States, the core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1% [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Significant decline in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected resumption of steel mill production in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]. Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Last week's reported output of hot-rolled coil rebounded but was at a relatively low level, and there may still be room for output to rebound in the future. The rebound in apparent consumption shows demand resilience, but the subsequent demand increase is limited. The total inventory continued to be destocked, but the total amount was still at a high level. There is an expectation of a relatively loose macro environment. It is necessary to monitor whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom - bust line. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the winter storage market in January and the slope of production capacity recovery. Today's daily line closed with a long upper - shadow阳线, indicating pressure above but also support below. It is expected to mainly maintain a sideways consolidation. There are no unilateral driving factors for now [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to decline, providing support. The stabilization of furnace materials boosts cost support. The market has digested the off - season demand and the news of export license management through previous price drops, and the macro - economic outlook is positive. Pay attention to the start of winter stockpiling from late December to January before the Spring Festival. The price of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Price**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract has shrunk for three consecutive days, with narrow intraday fluctuations. It closed at 3,245 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase, showing a stable and rising trend in the past three trading days [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot is 25 yuan, close to flat water [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 11, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.0871 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 114,100 tons year - on - year. It is at a near 4 - month low, and the output has been continuously declining recently. Steel mills may have the intention to switch production to rebar, which may marginally reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [4] - **Demand**: The weekly apparent consumption decreased by 28,900 tons to 3.1197 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 50,200 tons year - on - year. The domestic manufacturing demand is weak, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and a weak willingness for active stockpiling. The export demand is good, sharing the domestic supply pressure and providing support [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 32,600 tons to 3.9709 million tons week - on - week (social inventory decreased by 73,700 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 41,100 tons). The total inventory is at a near 4 - year high, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate, suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the further inventory reduction speed [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on steel export license management have been introduced. In the short term, it may trigger a rush to export, but the long - term expectation of export restrictions is rising, which may lead some export resources to be sold domestically, intensifying the domestic supply pressure. In addition, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office emphasized that expanding domestic demand is a key task for next year, but it will take time for the policy to be transmitted to terminal demand, and it is difficult to provide substantial support in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The expectation of supply reduction is increasing, winter stockpiling demand has started, there is policy support (such as the "14th Five - Year Plan" and infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal enhance cost support [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The demand is seasonally weak, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]