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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20250929
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:28
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a sideways adjustment [2][4]. - For copper, the adjustment of the US dollar will limit the price decline [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade with a downward bias [2][13]. - The continuous reduction in lead inventories will support its price [2][16]. - Tin is expected to trade within a range [2][18]. - Aluminum will continue to trade sideways, the center of gravity of alumina will move downward, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - Nickel prices will trade at low levels due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will trade sideways due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost factors [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) 3.1.1 Fundamental Tracking - Gold: The closing prices of various gold contracts showed increases. For example, the daily increase of Comex gold 2510 was 0.25%, and the night - session increase of Shanghai gold 2510 was 0.88%. The SPDR gold ETF's position increased by 9 tons to 1,005.72 tons [5]. - Silver: The prices of silver contracts also rose. The daily increase of Shanghai silver 2510 was 2.16%, and the night - session increase was 3.90%. The SLV silver ETF's position decreased by 28 tons to 15,361.84 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - The risk of a US government shutdown is high, and the release of the September non - farm payrolls report may be delayed. Fed Governor Bowman believes that the employment market is more vulnerable and advocates for decisive interest rate cuts [7][8]. - The EU will resume sanctions on Iran's nuclear - related issues, and Iran is prepared to respond to any threats [8]. 3.1.3 Trend Intensity - Gold trend intensity: 0; Silver trend intensity: 1 [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 82,470 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.29%. The trading volume and open interest of both Shanghai and London copper decreased [10]. - The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,105 tons to 26,557 tons, and the inventory of London copper decreased by 25 tons to 144,400 tons [10]. 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - US PCE inflation met expectations, giving the Fed more room to deal with the cooling labor market. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [10][12]. - Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower for copper and 6% lower for gold compared to the July estimate [10]. 3.2.3 Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity: 0 [12]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 21,980 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.29%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai zinc decreased while that of London zinc increased [13]. - The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased by 990 tons to 57,573 tons, and the inventory of London zinc decreased by 1,025 tons to 42,775 tons [13]. 3.3.2 News - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition [13]. 3.3.3 Trend Intensity - Zinc trend intensity: - 1 [13]. 3.4 Lead 3.4.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,110 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The trading volume of Shanghai lead increased, and the open interest decreased, while the opposite was true for London lead [16]. - The inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 820 tons to 34,764 tons, and the inventory of London lead decreased by 125 tons to 219,425 tons [16]. 3.4.2 News - US PCE inflation met expectations, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [16]. 3.4.3 Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity: 0 [16]. 3.5 Tin 3.5.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 274,070 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin increased, while the trading volume of London tin decreased slightly and the open interest increased [19]. - The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 199 tons to 6,077 tons, and the inventory of London tin increased by 35 tons to 2,775 tons [19]. 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - Similar to the news in the precious metals section, including the US government shutdown risk, PCE inflation data, and international political events [20]. 3.5.3 Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity: 0 [21]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 3.6.1 Fundamental Tracking - Aluminum: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,745 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,649 US dollars, also with a decline [22]. - Alumina: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,901 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [22]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It generally follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [22]. 3.6.2 Comprehensive News - China's industrial enterprise profits in August showed significant growth. US consumer spending increased for three consecutive months, and the core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [23]. 3.6.3 Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: - 1; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [23]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.7.1 Fundamental Tracking - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,380 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume decreased, and the prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed certain changes [24]. - Stainless Steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,840 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume increased significantly [24]. 3.7.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and many nickel - related industrial parks in Indonesia have production adjustments due to various reasons such as losses [24][25][27]. 3.7.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [30].