请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年09月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：美元调整，限制价格回落 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏弱 | 6 | | 铅：库存持续减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：继续磨盘 | 11 | | 氧化铝：重心下移 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 29 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：震荡调整 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本 ...

CONCLUDED PCE Inflation Report: August Numbers Come in as Expected, Paving Way for Rate Cut Last Updated: 10 hours ago Personal Saving Increases, Showing a Resilient U.S. Consumer By Customer Service Customer Center Network Personal income increased by $95.7 billion, or 0.4% since last month, in August, according to the latest release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income also rose by 0.4%. Both estimates were largely in line with analyst estimates. Personal saving was $1.06 trillio ...

美东时间9月17日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%至4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%，降幅25个基点。这是美联 储今年开年以来九个月内首次决定降息。联储自去年9月到12月连续三次会议降息，本周再度行动后，本轮宽松周期的合计降息降幅达125个基点。 本次会议的降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）的工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周降息25个基点的概率约为96%，10月下次 会议继续降息的概率约为80%，12月进一步降息的概率接近74%。美国财长贝森特周二称，市场正在消化从现在到年底合计降息75个基点的预期。 在会后公布的会议声明中，美联储主要调整了就业方面的表述，特别提到就业下行的风险增加。更新的利率预期体现出，多数联储决策者预计的今年降息次 数由6月公布的两次提高到三次，即在本周降息后，还会由两次25个基点的降息。 本次降息决议只有一名FOMC投票委员——特朗普"钦点"的理事米兰反对，至少目前看来，联储内部的降息分歧还没有出现两票反对的上次会议时大。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的资深联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在联储会后发文称，对就 ...

Economic Growth Expectations - The FOMC members project a median GDP growth of 1.6% for 2025, 1.4% for 2026, and 1.8% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The central tendency for 2025 GDP growth is between 1.4% and 1.7%, with a range of 1.3% to 2.0% [2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The median unemployment rate is forecasted to be 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028, with a long-term median of 4.0% [3] - The central tendency for 2025 unemployment rate is between 4.4% and 4.5%, with a range of 4.2% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Trends - The median forecast for the PCE price index year-on-year growth is 3.0% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028, with a long-term median of 2.0% [4] - The core PCE inflation forecast (excluding food and energy) is 3.1% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028 [4] Interest Rate Path - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median of 3.0% [5] - The central tendency for the 2025 interest rate is between 3.6% and 4.1%, with a range of 2.9% to 4.4% [5] Comparison with Previous Forecasts - Compared to the June 2025 forecast, the median predictions for GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate remain unchanged, indicating stable assessments by FOMC members [6] Uncertainty and Risk Assessment - FOMC members assess that the uncertainty regarding GDP growth and inflation for 2025 is "similar to or higher than" the past 20 years [7] - Some members view the risks for GDP growth and unemployment as "roughly balanced," while inflation risks are seen as "roughly balanced" or "tilted upward" [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rapid appreciation of the Renminbi and the simultaneous surge in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold rising by 3.0% to $3475.5 per ounce and COMEX silver increasing by 6.7% to $40.3 per ounce [2][39]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.1%, while the French CAC40 dropped by 3.3%, indicating a bearish trend in developed markets [2][3]. - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with Brazil's IBOVESPA rising by 2.5% and India's SENSEX30 declining by 1.8% [3][11]. Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of political events in France, where a proposed €440 billion austerity plan led to a significant drop in the CAC 40 index and a spike in government bond yields, raising concerns about the stability of the French government [47]. - The U.S. Treasury auction results showed strong demand for short-term and floating rate bonds, with the 6-month bond receiving a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.36, indicating robust investor interest [51][52]. Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. fiscal deficit for the year 2025 has reached $1.14 trillion, with total expenditures of $5.31 trillion and tax revenues of $3.29 trillion, reflecting a significant increase in government spending compared to the previous year [54][56]. - The article mentions that the Federal Reserve is facing pressure to lower interest rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September and further reductions in the following months [77][81]. Group 4 - The article reports that the U.S. PCE price index for July matched market expectations at 2.6%, while the core PCE index was at 2.9%, indicating stable inflationary pressures [81]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 229,000, lower than the market expectation of 230,000, suggesting a resilient labor market [84].

Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated that if the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin fails, the U.S. may intensify sanctions against Russia, including the potential for secondary tariffs [1][3] - Following Mnuchin's comments, international oil prices reacted, with Brent crude reaching $66.30 and WTI crude above $63.10 before experiencing a decline after Trump's remarks [3][5] - Analysts noted that geopolitical factors are driving oil prices, particularly in light of the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation [5][7] Economic Insights and Consumer Impact - Goldman Sachs reported that the burden of tariff costs is increasingly falling on U.S. consumers, with their share expected to rise from 22% to 67% by October [5][7] - The firm projected that the PCE price index would increase to 3.2% year-over-year by December, up from 2.6% in June [5][7] - Trump's criticism of Goldman Sachs highlighted a disconnect between his views on tariffs and the economic realities presented by the firm [5][7] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, David Mericle, stated that if tariffs follow a similar trajectory as in February, consumers will bear a significant portion of the costs [7] - Mericle suggested that the Federal Reserve may consider minor interest rate cuts, but these would not significantly alter overall monetary policy [7] - Mnuchin also commented on the Federal Reserve, suggesting that current interest rates should be lower by 150 to 175 basis points, indicating a potential for rate cuts if data supports it [7]

Core Points - The PCE price index in the U.S. accelerated in June, reaching a year-to-date high, which has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][4] - The overall PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, also above the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February [3][4] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The rise in the PCE price index is attributed to higher gasoline prices and companies passing on tariff-related costs to consumers, with energy prices up by 0.9% in June [3][4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew by 0.3% in June, below the expected 0.4% [4] - Economists note that inventory accumulation by businesses has not yet been fully digested, and the impact of tariffs on prices has not been fully realized [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, resisting pressure for a rate cut from President Trump [4] - The latest inflation report complicates the Fed's path towards potential rate cuts, as officials seek more evidence of inflation returning to the 2% target [4][5] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of addressing price increases without causing long-term inflation or unnecessary harm to the labor market [5]

北京时间周四20:30，美国公布PCE数据，6月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.8%，高于预期的2.70%，前 值由2.70%修正为2.8%。6月核心PCE物价指数月率录得0.3%，符合预期，高于前值的0.20%。 包含食品能源的整体PCE指数环比上升0.3%，同比上涨2.6%，分别高于市场预期的0.23%和2.5%。 数据还显示，个人消费支出价格指数环比上涨0.3%，将年率提升至2.6%，为2月份以来的最高水平。支 出疲软的背后是劳动力市场降温。实际可支配收入在5月份下降后持平，而工资和薪金几乎没有上涨。 预计将于周五公布的7月就业报告将显示招聘持续放缓，失业率略有回升。储蓄率保持在4.5%。 美国系列数据公布后，现货黄金短线波动暂不大，美元指数短线小幅走高。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos表示，（6月）核心PCE通胀看起来开始恶化，并不比美联储去年开始降息 时更好，从某些指标来看甚至更糟。6月份核心PCE物价指数3个月年化率为2.6%（去年同期为2.3%）。 按6个月年化计算，这一数字为3.2%（去年同期为3.3%）。 6月份的通胀数据是由商品价格上涨推动的，包括家居用品、运动器材和服装，这表明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff situation cooling down suppresses the market's risk - aversion tone, causing gold and silver prices to decline during the session. The framework trade agreement between the US and the EU on the 27th reduces concerns about global trade frictions and supports short - term market risk appetite [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar has led to a slight recovery of the spot gold price from a two - week low, mainly due to risk mitigation from the US - EU agreement and increased overseas buying demand. However, as market risk appetite improves, the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset has decreased [2]. - Future potential driving factors include the Fed's policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is strengthened, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. If the subsequent PCE growth rate is significantly lower than expected, it may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2510 is 760 - 800 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver 2510 is 8900 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold's main contract closing price is 774.78 yuan/gram, down 2.54; Shanghai Silver's main contract closing price is 9212 yuan/kilogram, down 180 [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 209,675 lots, down 2,176; those of Shanghai Silver are 398,421 lots, down 52,406 [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold's main contract are 156,633 lots, down 424; those of Shanghai Silver are 129,149 lots, down 3,391 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 30,258 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 1,208,269 kilograms, up 21,015 [2]. - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 770.19 yuan/gram, down 3.01; the silver spot price is 9146 yuan/kilogram, down 245 [2]. - The basis of Shanghai Gold's main contract is - 4.12 yuan/gram, down 0.48; that of Shanghai Silver is 1 yuan/kilogram, up 36 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 957.09 tons, up 2.29; silver ETF holdings are 15,207.82 tons, unchanged [2]. - Gold's CFTC non - commercial net positions are 213,115 contracts, up 10,147; silver's CTFC non - commercial net positions are 59,448 contracts, up 927 [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 12.24%, up 0.06; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.76%, down 0.19 [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.07%, down 0.03; that of at - the - money put options is 21.08%, down 0.03 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. Trump said the agreement would impose a 15% tariff on most European goods exported to the US. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment, and purchase $750 billion of US energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs, and details of the trade agreement framework will be announced in the next few weeks [2]. - US Secretary of State Rubio said Trump's patience for Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict is running out [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.6% [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that rising stock prices are contributing to increased PCE inflation, which could complicate the investment environment and limit future monetary policy options [1][2][3] - The report highlights that the stock market rebound is expected to contribute at least 6 basis points to core PCE inflation in June, reversing the previous drag on inflation from the investment management category [1][9] - The correlation between stock price changes and PCE investment management inflation is significant, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.245, indicating a notable relationship [4] Group 2 - In April and May, the investment management category was a drag on core inflation, but the recent stock market rebound suggests this will shift to being a driver of inflation in the coming months [3][9] - The overall impact of this "swing factor" is quantified to reach 7 basis points, making it difficult for core PCE to remain at low levels [7]