Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated that if the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin fails, the U.S. may intensify sanctions against Russia, including the potential for secondary tariffs [1][3] - Following Mnuchin's comments, international oil prices reacted, with Brent crude reaching $66.30 and WTI crude above $63.10 before experiencing a decline after Trump's remarks [3][5] - Analysts noted that geopolitical factors are driving oil prices, particularly in light of the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation [5][7] Economic Insights and Consumer Impact - Goldman Sachs reported that the burden of tariff costs is increasingly falling on U.S. consumers, with their share expected to rise from 22% to 67% by October [5][7] - The firm projected that the PCE price index would increase to 3.2% year-over-year by December, up from 2.6% in June [5][7] - Trump's criticism of Goldman Sachs highlighted a disconnect between his views on tariffs and the economic realities presented by the firm [5][7] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, David Mericle, stated that if tariffs follow a similar trajectory as in February, consumers will bear a significant portion of the costs [7] - Mericle suggested that the Federal Reserve may consider minor interest rate cuts, but these would not significantly alter overall monetary policy [7] - Mnuchin also commented on the Federal Reserve, suggesting that current interest rates should be lower by 150 to 175 basis points, indicating a potential for rate cuts if data supports it [7]

Core Points - The PCE price index in the U.S. accelerated in June, reaching a year-to-date high, which has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][4] - The overall PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, also above the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February [3][4] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The rise in the PCE price index is attributed to higher gasoline prices and companies passing on tariff-related costs to consumers, with energy prices up by 0.9% in June [3][4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew by 0.3% in June, below the expected 0.4% [4] - Economists note that inventory accumulation by businesses has not yet been fully digested, and the impact of tariffs on prices has not been fully realized [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, resisting pressure for a rate cut from President Trump [4] - The latest inflation report complicates the Fed's path towards potential rate cuts, as officials seek more evidence of inflation returning to the 2% target [4][5] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of addressing price increases without causing long-term inflation or unnecessary harm to the labor market [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff situation cooling down suppresses the market's risk - aversion tone, causing gold and silver prices to decline during the session. The framework trade agreement between the US and the EU on the 27th reduces concerns about global trade frictions and supports short - term market risk appetite [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar has led to a slight recovery of the spot gold price from a two - week low, mainly due to risk mitigation from the US - EU agreement and increased overseas buying demand. However, as market risk appetite improves, the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset has decreased [2]. - Future potential driving factors include the Fed's policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is strengthened, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. If the subsequent PCE growth rate is significantly lower than expected, it may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2510 is 760 - 800 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver 2510 is 8900 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold's main contract closing price is 774.78 yuan/gram, down 2.54; Shanghai Silver's main contract closing price is 9212 yuan/kilogram, down 180 [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 209,675 lots, down 2,176; those of Shanghai Silver are 398,421 lots, down 52,406 [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold's main contract are 156,633 lots, down 424; those of Shanghai Silver are 129,149 lots, down 3,391 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 30,258 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 1,208,269 kilograms, up 21,015 [2]. - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 770.19 yuan/gram, down 3.01; the silver spot price is 9146 yuan/kilogram, down 245 [2]. - The basis of Shanghai Gold's main contract is - 4.12 yuan/gram, down 0.48; that of Shanghai Silver is 1 yuan/kilogram, up 36 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 957.09 tons, up 2.29; silver ETF holdings are 15,207.82 tons, unchanged [2]. - Gold's CFTC non - commercial net positions are 213,115 contracts, up 10,147; silver's CTFC non - commercial net positions are 59,448 contracts, up 927 [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 12.24%, up 0.06; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.76%, down 0.19 [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.07%, down 0.03; that of at - the - money put options is 21.08%, down 0.03 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. Trump said the agreement would impose a 15% tariff on most European goods exported to the US. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment, and purchase $750 billion of US energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs, and details of the trade agreement framework will be announced in the next few weeks [2]. - US Secretary of State Rubio said Trump's patience for Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict is running out [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.6% [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that rising stock prices are contributing to increased PCE inflation, which could complicate the investment environment and limit future monetary policy options [1][2][3] - The report highlights that the stock market rebound is expected to contribute at least 6 basis points to core PCE inflation in June, reversing the previous drag on inflation from the investment management category [1][9] - The correlation between stock price changes and PCE investment management inflation is significant, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.245, indicating a notable relationship [4] Group 2 - In April and May, the investment management category was a drag on core inflation, but the recent stock market rebound suggests this will shift to being a driver of inflation in the coming months [3][9] - The overall impact of this "swing factor" is quantified to reach 7 basis points, making it difficult for core PCE to remain at low levels [7]

Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8% respectively, with a long-term forecast also at 1.8% [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, slightly decreasing to 4.4% in 2027, with a long-term expectation of 4.2% [2] - PCE inflation is forecasted at 3.0% for 2025, decreasing to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a long-term target of 2.0% [2] - Core PCE inflation is anticipated to be 3.1% in 2025, dropping to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a long-term goal of 2.0% [2] - The federal funds rate is projected to be 3.9% in 2025, 3.6% in 2026, and 3.4% in 2027, with a long-term expectation of 3.0% [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook indicates that most FOMC participants perceive higher uncertainty regarding PCE inflation and core PCE inflation, with an upward risk bias [1]

Core Viewpoint - Weak PCE inflation data may accelerate the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to support a sluggish economy, which could also prompt Trump to ease tariffs and reach agreements more quickly [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is now more likely to act quickly on interest rate cuts due to weak economic data [1] - Weak data may lead to a faster resolution of trade agreements by prompting tariff relaxations [1]