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芳烃价格震荡
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供需因素交织,芳烃价格震荡
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 10:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is significantly affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil and refined oil. The gasoline crack spread has changed from strong to weak, weakening the support from gasoline blending. Supply may decrease due to overseas plant shutdowns and domestic factory load - reduction plans, but the weakening cost due to falling oil prices restricts price increases. The market is likely to maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term [2]. - The styrene market is in a state of intertwined supply - demand forces. The impact of new production capacity has been gradually absorbed, and supply pressure is moderately stable. Demand has a certain boost from exports. However, the weakening cost leads to price oscillations. In the short term, styrene is expected to remain in low - level oscillations, and the market direction depends on export continuity and cost stability [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On November 26, the styrene main contract closed up 1.35% at 6,533 yuan/ton with a basis of 64 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.96% at 5,463 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,330 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On November 26, Brent crude oil closed at $58.0/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at $61.8/barrel (-$0.9/barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month de - stocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization had a slight month - on - month change. Weekly styrene output was 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries improved. EPS capacity utilization was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS capacity utilization was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The market is affected by crude oil and refined oil fluctuations. The gasoline crack spread has weakened, reducing the support from gasoline blending. Supply may decrease, but the weakening cost restricts price increases. The market is likely to oscillate weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of intertwined supply - demand forces. The impact of new capacity has been absorbed, and exports may support demand. However, the weakening cost leads to oscillations. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations in the short term [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures and pure benzene futures prices increased on November 26, while styrene spot prices decreased. Crude oil prices decreased [5]. - **Output and Inventory**: Styrene and pure benzene production decreased slightly. Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene port inventory increased [6]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries increased, while that of some decreased [7]. 3. Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement with the IAEA. - The US Department of Energy announced a reorganization, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene and styrene prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [10][11][20]
供需趋稳与成本走弱,芳烃价格震荡
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 10:01
能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 11 月 26 日 星期三 供需趋稳与成本走弱,芳烃价格震荡 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 (1)基本面 价格:11 月 25 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.16%,报 6446 元/吨,基 差 64(+0 元/吨);纯苯主力合约收跌 0.11%,报 5411 元/吨。 成本:11 月 25 日布油主力收盘 58.8 美元/桶(+0.8 美元/桶), WTI 原油主力合约收盘 62.7 美元/桶(+0.8 美元/桶),华东纯苯现货报 价 5320 元/吨(-40 元/吨)。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.8 万吨(-2.7 万吨),环比去库 15.2%,苯乙烯 延续去库但仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 14.7 万吨(+3.4 万吨),环比累 库 30.1%。 供应:苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前,苯乙烯周产量 34.3 万吨(-0.1 万吨),工厂产能利用率 69.0%(-0.3%)。 需求:下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖,EPS 产能利用率 56.3% (+4.6%),ABS 产能利用率 72.4%(+0.6%),PS 产能利用率 55.9% ( ...