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石油化工行业周报(2025/5/19—2025/5/24):芳烃盈利出现分化,PX走强而纯苯走弱-20250524
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting a divergence in aromatics profitability with PX strengthening while pure benzene weakens [4][5]. Core Insights - Aromatics prices have followed a downward trend alongside oil prices, with pure benzene margins at 619 CNY/ton, near historical lows, and PX margins at -41 USD/ton, showing some recovery from previous lows [4][5]. - The demand for pure benzene is suppressed due to low profitability in downstream products, while PX demand is positively influenced by the recovery in PTA production and margins [4][13]. - The report anticipates a short-term stabilization for pure benzene and a gradual recovery in the medium to long term as overseas refineries exit the market [4][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing mixed trends, with oil prices declining and drilling day rates showing variability, indicating potential for future increases as global capital expenditures rise [4][26]. - The refining sector is seeing improved profitability due to a rebound in oil prices, although the overall margins remain low [4][19]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to 64.78 USD/barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.54%, while WTI prices also fell [4][26]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased to 443 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising as well, indicating a widening supply-demand trend [4][28]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 566, reflecting a reduction in exploration activity [4][36]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin decreased to 12.23 USD/barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread also saw a slight decline [4][19]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [4][19]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have been rising, with the average price reaching 4922 CNY/ton, indicating a positive trend in the polyester supply chain [4][19]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry remains average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4][19]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. in the polyester sector [4][19].