芳烃链成本抬升
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供需弱化与成本变量共振,芳烃震荡运行
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:14
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of pure benzene are still weak, but the cost support from macro and oil prices may change the previous one - sided bearish expectation [2] - Styrene continues to have a tight supply pattern, and cost - side factors are becoming dominant again. Cost warming may push up the price bottom center, while demand remains weak [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - On November 24, the main contract of styrene closed down 1.09% at 6,436 yuan/ton, with a basis of 64 (+11 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 1.33% at 5,435 yuan/ton [2] - On November 24, Brent crude oil closed at $58.1 per barrel (-$0.9 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $61.9 per barrel (-$0.9 per barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,320 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene port inventory was 148,000 tons (-27,000 tons), with a 15.2% month - on - month destocking; pure benzene port inventory was 147,000 tons (+34,000 tons), with a 30.1% month - on - month stockpiling [2] - Styrene production and capacity utilization fluctuated slightly. Weekly production was 343,000 tons (-1,000 tons), and plant capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2] - The overall demand of downstream 3S industries improved. EPS capacity utilization was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS capacity utilization was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas fundamentals show a structural differentiation. Macro and oil price cost support may change the bearish expectation. In China, short - term arrivals are fast, port inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand improvement is limited [2] - **Styrene**: Supply remains tight, port inventory continues to decline. Cost factors are becoming dominant. Demand is weak, and the impact of cost warming is more direct on production profit and price support [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - From November 21 to 24, 2025, the main styrene futures contract decreased by 1.09%, and the spot price decreased by 0.45%. The main pure benzene futures contract decreased by 1.33%, and the East China spot price decreased by 0.75% [5] - The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 9.42%, and the spread between East China and Shandong pure benzene increased by 42.86% [5] - Brent crude oil decreased by 1.59%, WTI crude oil decreased by 1.37%, and naphtha price remained unchanged [5] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From November 14 to 21, 2025, Chinese styrene production decreased by 0.43% to 343,000 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.67% to 447,000 tons [6] - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 15.16% to 148,000 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.70% to 188,000 tons. Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased by 30.09% to 147,000 tons [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - From November 14 to 21, 2025, the capacity utilization of styrene decreased by 0.30% to 69.0%, that of caprolactam increased by 2.18% to 88.2%, that of phenol increased by 11.46% to 78.7%, and that of aniline decreased by 4.49% to 75.7% [7] - Among styrene downstream industries, EPS capacity utilization increased by 4.64% to 56.3%, ABS capacity utilization increased by 0.60% to 72.4%, and PS capacity utilization increased by 0.50% to 55.9% [7] 3. Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals [8] - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations [8] - Iran's foreign minister announced the formal termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency [8] - The US Department of Energy announced a reorganization, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import and domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port and factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and capacity utilization of related products [13][18][22]