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纯苯&苯乙烯周报:苯乙烯现货持货意愿增加,纯苯弱势运行-20251208
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 06:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on styrene is "oscillating", with the expectation that styrene costs will weaken and the market will be mainly bearish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The styrene market generally maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Although the discussion of exports to Western Europe provides some support, the weak sales in the polymer market, the weak demand in the off - season, and the low operating rates of downstream PS, EPS, and ABS significantly offset the bullish sentiment brought by exports. The economic efficiency has slightly improved, but the overall production profit is still negative. The spot quotation in East China shows a slight contango in the forward market, and the inventory continues to rise, indicating insufficient restocking willingness at the end - user level. The short - term supply and demand in the Asian styrene market are basically balanced, but due to weak downstream demand and a negative profit pattern, prices lack upward momentum [130]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The styrene - benzene spread has widened to $150, and the styrene - naphtha spread has risen to $240, with a slight improvement in economic efficiency, but the economic benefits of non - integrated plants are still negative, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Demand**: As of December 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 224,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous inventory of 164,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.59%, and a 79,000 - ton increase from the same period last year of 145,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.48%, showing a bearish drive [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples was 160,600 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 2.19%. The commercial inventory was 96,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period, an increase of 2.34%, showing a neutral drive [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has slightly strengthened, overseas blending fuels have weakened, and the market is concerned about the concentration of domestic styrene spot holdings, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $240, and the spread between benzene and naphtha is about $150. Styrene profits are expanding, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Valuation**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. The concentrated maintenance of reforming units is driving up prices, and the market is watching the strengthening of the basis and monthly spreads, showing a neutral drive [4]. - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The Director of the White House National Economic Council of the United States, Hassett, said that the Fed may cut interest rates at the next meeting, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The overseas gasoline off - season has arrived [6]. - **Styrene**: The profits of non - integrated styrene plants have been repaired, and styrene profits have slightly expanded. However, downstream derivative demand has dragged down pure benzene, making it perform weakly [14][25][36]. 3.3 Overview of Polymer Demand - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: Domestic and overseas off - season demand is weak, and the production profit of PS has weakened. The inventory of EPS has accumulated while the production has remained stable [51][64][75]. - **Overseas Benzene Market**: The price has slightly declined. Although overseas pure benzene demand is weak, supply is gradually recovering. The restart of some devices is expected to boost benzene demand, but overall chemical demand is weak [73]. - **Asian Benzene Market**: It has weakened again, mainly dragged down by weak energy and naphtha prices. The short - term Asian benzene market may maintain a pattern of weak supply - demand balance and price pressure [83]. - **Overseas Styrene Market**: The price has declined and trading is light, affected by the holiday effect and high costs. The short - term situation is difficult to improve significantly [93]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory has continued to accumulate [94]. - **Adipic Acid**: The load has decreased and profits have declined [105]. - **Caprolactam**: The inventory has been depleted [116]. - **Home Appliances**: The export demand is weak [125].