12月19日 资讯分享 周四，因美国11月CPI通胀低于预期，美元指数在美盘前急速跳水，现货黄金在美盘时段一度冲上4370 美元，但随后回吐日内全部涨幅并转跌，最终收跌0.14%，报4332.31美元/盎司；现货白银震荡下行， 最终收跌1.14%，报65.44美元/盎司。 因投资者评估美国进一步制裁俄罗斯的可能性，以及委内瑞拉油轮被封锁带来的供应风险，原油仍陷宽 幅区间内。WTI原油最终收跌1.48%，报55.8美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌1.48%，报59.89美元/桶。 美国11月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%；美国11月未季调核心CPI年率录得2.6%，为 2021年3月以来新低。美国联邦基金利率显示，美联储明年1月份降息的可能性从26.6%上升至28.8%。 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：美联储仍有很大降息空间。 美联储古尔斯比：11月通胀数据良好，对前置降息感到不安。终端利率将远低于当前水平。 欧洲央行将存款机制利率维持在2%不变，符合市场预期，为连续第四次会议按兵不动。欧洲央行表 示，降息周期很可能已经结束。 英国央行将基准利率从4.00%下调至3.75%，符合市场预期。 ...

Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% with a vote of 9 in favor and 2 against, indicating internal divisions among officials regarding interest rate adjustments [1][2] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman expressed concerns that delaying interest rate cuts could harm the labor market, advocating for a 25 basis point reduction [2] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the need for patience in assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy, despite signs of a slowing labor market [2] Employment and Economic Data - The U.S. job report indicated a slowdown, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [2] - Fed official Williams noted significant downward revisions in employment data for May and June but maintained that the labor market remains solid [3] - The U.S. economy is expected to grow at approximately 1% this year, with a potential rebound in 2026 [3] Global Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Canada held its interest rate steady at 2.75%, indicating a possibility of future cuts if economic conditions weaken [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs unless significant economic changes occur, with inflation remaining stable at 2.0% in July [5][6] - The Bank of Japan maintained its rate at 0.5% and raised its 2025 core CPI forecast to 2.7%, indicating a cautious approach to inflation management [7] Market Reactions and Predictions - The market is divided on the U.S. economic outlook, with some believing in its resilience while others see emerging cracks, particularly in consumer spending [9] - The potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased following the recent employment data, despite missing the opportunity in July [10] - Barclays economists predict the ECB may cut rates by 25 basis points in December, citing easing inflation pressures by year-end [10]